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Putin & Russia

Can someone explain to me, someone that knows fudge all on the subject of modern war etc What is going to stop Putin from nuclear bombing countries when we keep on hitting them with heavier and heavier sanctions? I mean, he doesn’t strike me as someone who’s just going to sit there and take being backed into a corner….
 
Grays_1890 said:
As John Pilger asked yesterday, where in the league table of war is hell do we put Putin on Ukraine and Obama and Clinton for Yemen? Do we call one a war criminal whilst passing the others actions as a consequence of battle and do so with a straight face? I think its a great question TBH
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Absolutely.
There is a huge amount of hypocrisy by "the west" in all of this, at both a political and societal level.
Things are always a bit different when it's closer to home
 
monkeybarry said:
Absolutely.
There is a huge amount of hypocrisy by "the west" in all of this, at both a political and societal level.
Things are always a bit different when it's closer to home
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Yeh, I mean people have complained about the timing of the question and maybe they have a point but I think its a hugely fair point and when you expand out you look at the Muslim crisis in China etc and its a question as worthy there as anywhere too.

Like you say there is a huge level of Hypocrisy across the board
 
Grays_1890 said:
Yeh, I mean people have complained about the timing of the question and maybe they have a point but I think its a hugely fair point and when you expand out you look at the Muslim crisis in China etc and its a question as worthy there as anywhere too.

Like you say there is a huge level of Hypocrisy across the board
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There is also personal bias (whether conscious or unconscious). Ukrainians "look like us" - we can relate to their lives more than we can from someone from Yemen or the Quegars (sic - excuse my ignorance).

I found myself on Fri or Sat being oddly emotionally involved in Ukraine and simultaneously wanting 24/7 coverage so I could see what is going on. Which is bizarre and pretty fudged up.
 
monkeybarry said:
There is also personal bias (whether conscious or unconscious). Ukrainians "look like us" - we can relate to their lives more than we can from someone from Yemen or the Quegars (sic - excuse my ignorance).

I found myself on Fri or Sat being oddly emotionally involved in Ukraine and simultaneously wanting 24/7 coverage so I could see what is going on. Which is bizarre and pretty fudged up.
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I agree with all you have said
 
harr1984 said:
Can someone explain to me, someone that knows fudge all on the subject of modern war etc What is going to stop Putin from nuclear bombing countries when we keep on hitting them with heavier and heavier sanctions? I mean, he doesn’t strike me as someone who’s just going to sit there and take being backed into a corner….
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Well, that's where the good old concept of "MAD" comes into play. (mutually assured destruction).

Putin (hopefully) well knows that that is one line he cannot cross first. The established doctrine in NATO is full and unrestricted retaliation with nuclear weapons towards Russia if such a line is breached. At least, if he has lost all sanity and no longer knows this, the people around him should still know...

The worrying parts (apart from the complete bonkers of the above concept) is the development of tactical battlefield nukes on one hand, and the enclave of Kaliningrad on the other.

As one develop heavier and heavier "conventional" weapons, such as the theremite-rocket-launcher Russia has, or other big guns, and smaller and smaller artillery-fired nukes, the border between them sort of fades. And that makes it really tough on "soft" western politicians who needs to respond to the use of such weapons.
Add in a few of the really big ones, and place them in Kaliningrad, from where they can strike at European capitals with minutes or no warning at all, it makes a feasible scenario where Putin can bite of as big a chunk of eastern Europe as he wants, before threatening with nukes from Kaliningrad. "Accept this end to the war, or I will nuke you."
There has been speculations that this was a plan, either for this war, or the next, however, I think now he has misjudged the response home and abroad, and that this may be the end of Putin. I would not be surprised if there either came to a palace coup, a public uprise or possibly a "heart attack" in a few days time. If so, I'd wager that history would show that the evil one tried to give an order to use nukes, but was restrained by the people around him.

As for what does brexit, nationalism, anti-globalism and other trends in our current time have to do with this, as certain other discussions goes here, neither are neccessarily the cause or to blame for what happens now, but it does not require very advanced "dot-to-dot"-drawing skills to see that certain movements acceptance of either blatant aid from Russia or russian associated companies, or more subverted aid, being intel, financial or other, has allowed them to be used by Russia for Russias gain. Some has done this in naive faith, other with a foul taste in their mouth, and others in full acceptance. History will not be nice to any of them at all! (of course, unless Russia wins and takes over the world. If so, History will not be nice, full stop)

Russia has supported and used these movements to create wedges between allies, cast doubts about treaties and obligations that previously was unshakable and unquestionable. That this has happened is beyond question.
 
harr1984 said:
Can someone explain to me, someone that knows fudge all on the subject of modern war etc What is going to stop Putin from nuclear bombing countries when we keep on hitting them with heavier and heavier sanctions? I mean, he doesn’t strike me as someone who’s just going to sit there and take being backed into a corner….
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The Russian people, thats who sanctions hit and demoralise and he wont be able to see this out in full nuclear mode
 
scaramanga said:
I think where we're differing here is that I had already assumed the longer term sanctions were going to be in place regardless. Putin and Russia have reached a point now where they cannot be allowed to gain financial traction as they have again.

In my mind that case had already been made, the only question was what we would do in the meantime to make Putin leave Ukrain and do so quickly. I know we differ on our limits here, but if sanctions were never going to do that, we should have skipped straight to the no fly zone.
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Yeah, that may be where we disagree on this.

I struggle to see a quick solution, you with your rosy, optimistic naive view of the world full of positive feelings really should reconsider
 
Gazza Dazzla said:
I don’t see any reason why it would take time to change it. Also it’s not like this invasion and what would be required from the rest of Europe and NATO nations came as a shock to anyone, it’s been on the cards since Nov or even before.
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Germany. Upping their involvement in an active WAR. By selling weapons. Ending a decade of policy. Germany. You see no reason why they'd need a day or two to think about it and gauge public opinion first?

Fine I guess, we see things differently.
 
scaramanga said:
Must be a pretty strong anti-war feeling there too.

I doubt it's an easy decision to protest in a country whose govt poisons its political rivals, imagine how many people feel that way without protesting if that many are out on the streets.
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It's so hard to tell. They've had hundreds of years of being oppressed by authoritarian leaders. They are conditioned to it. They only had a few years experiment of democracy in the early 90s.

If you've ever known anyone in an abusive relationship, they usually don't take the route to freedom when offered it. That Stockholm syndrome thing is very real

Equally though, everyone thought 70 years of communism had repressed the appetite for rebellion and independence in the soviet bloc, but it then suddenly appeared everywhere in 1989-92
 
So is it true that nato requires members to spend 2% of gdp on defence and if so which European countries have not been doing that?

Seems like they expect someone else to pay for it while they prosper.
 
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