Putin & Russia

[Rorschach]

Worth a read.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...kraine-inside-his-head?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Very good. This from Anne Applebaum is also a good read
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukraine-democracy/621465/

 

[monkeybarry]

I see Orban is giving Putin the cold shoulder now. I didn't expect that.

Countries like Hungary are exactly why the EU is so important for mainland Europe.

 

[metalgear]

While Ukraine didn't look ready militarily, they were certainly ready on social media. Russia is getting pummelled from a PR point of view and its going to put tremendous and real pressure on Putin.

 

[thfcsteff]

Biden said to see where the sanctions were getting us in a month. Ukraine doesn't have a month. He's dithering.

Putin wouldn't have invaded with Trump in charge as he's too unpredictable. The right result for the wrong reasons.

I sincerely doubt Harris would be dithering like this, she appears capable of making decisions.

Nah, he'd absolutely have invaded if Trump had stolen the second term he tried to. Putin's big wait was watching the EU & Brexit situation solidify into a split. With that in hand, and Trump in his pocket, he'd have done it regardless IMO. The fact it is Biden certainly doesn't make things harder as Putin will know Biden won't instantly respond, plus who knows whose hands are in whose pockets at this point, but Putin has clearly set the US, UK and Germany up to be dependent on Russian financial and material assets as part of their economies, whether through dirty cash or reliance. Look at Germany right now, a neighbor to war yet with at least the country apparently reliant on Russian gas? Putin has this situation where he wanted it and now it looks to me like only a couple of things can prevent it from becoming grudge-fudge ugly, and those lie in either someone within Europe, the UK or the US actually calling his bluff (don't hold your breath) or someone within Russia taking matters into their own hands. Indeed, that appears to be the one place he has fudged up, his presumption that Russians support him unequivocally. Right now, the bravest people around alongside the Ukrainians are the Russian people who are protesting and standing up against him; there's the hope IMO.

 

[braineclipse]

Is this a sick joke, or just callous? I find it amazing it’s taken them this long to wake up and smell the coffee! I think they’ll find diplomatic relations pretty difficult in the aftermath of this. Something stinks in Berlin over their delaying tactics.

Changing a decades old policy taking a couple of days. I get the wish for it to happen sooner, but I'm not sure about calling it delaying tactics.

They've been arms exporters for decades. They are just now allowing their arms that they have sold to other countries be given to ukraine. They are not exporting weapons to ukraine.

Now i understand why they have agreements in place for countries they sell weapons to not sell them on. They don't want them in the hands of terrorists or oppresive regimes. Which is good.

The point i was making was that they can't be that sensitive over war if they are international arms dealers.

A list of people and entities that I want to have a strong ethical foundation would definitely includes international arms dealers.

We need weapons of war. We need people to produce and sell said weapons. Them being sensitive over war seems more or less like the best possible available option.

 

[braineclipse]

Yep.

Enough to be able to put out a statement saying that they've done what everyone wanted them to do but not enough to have the effect everyone wanted it to have.

Still more blood on their hands. Even if this ends well for Ukraine, Germany's complicity should never be forgotten.

Seems to me that the sanctions are increasing day by day. I see that as a good thing.

I thought we agreed that sanctions wouldn't do much short term?

More and earlier would be better, but still, we're a couple of days into this. German complicity for not putting in stronger sanctions sooner seems way over the top.

 

[braineclipse]

Nah, he'd absolutely have invaded if Trump had stolen the second term he tried to. Putin's big wait was watching the EU & Brexit situation solidify into a split. With that in hand, and Trump in his pocket, he'd have done it regardless IMO. The fact it is Biden certainly doesn't make things harder as Putin will know Biden won't instantly respond, plus who knows whose hands are in whose pockets at this point, but Putin has clearly set the US, UK and Germany up to be dependent on Russian financial and material assets as part of their economies, whether through dirty cash or reliance. Look at Germany right now, a neighbor to war yet with at least the country apparently reliant on Russian gas? Putin has this situation where he wanted it and now it looks to me like only a couple of things can prevent it from becoming grudge-fudge ugly, and those lie in either someone within Europe, the UK or the US actually calling his bluff (don't hold your breath) or someone within Russia taking matters into their own hands. Indeed, that appears to be the one place he has fudged up, his presumption that Russians support him unequivocally. Right now, the bravest people around alongside the Ukrainians are the Russian people who are protesting and standing up against him; there's the hope IMO.

I don't think Putin has the situation where he wanted it. I think he wanted concessions from the threat of war alone. If not that a short war where Ukraine quickly capitulated. If not that a forced regime change.

Right now he's not really progressing well on any of those fronts, even though militarily they are progressing of course.

I don't think Putin wanted this to become a long lasting ugly affair. That's when sanctions start to really come into play. That's when army morale may take a real hit along with internal unrest causing issues.

 

[scaramanga]

Seems to me that the sanctions are increasing day by day. I see that as a good thing.

I thought we agreed that sanctions wouldn't do much short term?

More and earlier would be better, but still, we're a couple of days into this. German complicity for not putting in stronger sanctions sooner seems way over the top.

The light touch sanctions that have been in place certainly won't do much of anything short term.

Much heavier sanctions much earlier will obviously do much more. I still suspect not enough, but anything more is desirable.

They have resisted calls for Russia to be banned from Swift and have now watered down the actions we have taken. They've refused to send weapons and stopped others from doing the same until pressure mounted.

When it comes to stopping Putin and helping Ukraine we cannot measure our actions by the cost to us - the only relevant measure is their efficacy.

 

[scaramanga]

I don't think Putin has the situation where he wanted it. I think he wanted concessions from the threat of war alone. If not that a short war where Ukraine quickly capitulated. If not that a forced regime change.

Right now he's not really progressing well on any of those fronts, even though militarily they are progressing of course.

I don't think Putin wanted this to become a long lasting ugly affair. That's when sanctions start to really come into play. That's when army morale may take a real hit along with internal unrest causing issues.

The obvious turning point is when we've restricted their banks to the point where they can't pay their army.

 

[braineclipse]

The light touch sanctions that have been in place certainly won't do much of anything short term.

Much heavier sanctions much earlier will obviously do much more. I still suspect not enough, but anything more is desirable.

They have resisted calls for Russia to be banned from Swift and have now watered down the actions we have taken. They've refused to send weapons and stopped others from doing the same until pressure mounted.

When it comes to stopping Putin and helping Ukraine we cannot measure our actions by the cost to us - the only relevant measure is their efficacy.

I think there's room for disagreement both on the types of sanctions and when to put them into place. Sanctions weren't going to stop Putin, it's about upping the cost and consequences of going to war and hopefully adding a long term cumulative cost.

I think escalating sanctions can be a valid strategy. I can understand democratic nations taking some time on deciding in a situation like this.

How steadfast the west can be in upholding sanctions will be much more important than them being implemented a day or two earlier. Making sure the sanctions are thought through, including the cost and consequences at the Western end seems only rational.

I don't think there is a way of quickly stopping Putin. We've talked about "boots on the ground before" - I think that's a non starter.

Putin backing down at this point would likely be close to a disaster for him politically. So the only quick fix would be concessions from Ukraine and the west - doesn't seem desirable.

So could be lasting, agonising, painful tragedy by the looks of things.

 

[scaramanga]

I think there's room for disagreement both on the types of sanctions and when to put them into place. Sanctions weren't going to stop Putin, it's about upping the cost and consequences of going to war and hopefully adding a long term cumulative cost.

I think escalating sanctions can be a valid strategy. I can understand democratic nations taking some time on deciding in a situation like this.

How steadfast the west can be in upholding sanctions will be much more important than them being implemented a day or two earlier. Making sure the sanctions are thought through, including the cost and consequences at the Western end seems only rational.

I don't think there is a way of quickly stopping Putin. We've talked about "boots on the ground before" - I think that's a non starter.

Putin backing down at this point would likely be close to a disaster for him politically. So the only quick fix would be concessions from Ukraine and the west - doesn't seem desirable.

So could be lasting, agonising, painful tragedy by the looks of things.

Escalating sanctions is a terrible strategy when the initial sanctions are doing nothing. They have to hurt for the escalation of them to be a threat.

Here's a good breakdown of Germany's recent actions and inactions:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/26/olaf-scholz-gave-vladimir-putin-green-light-invade/

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

Nah, he'd absolutely have invaded if Trump had stolen the second term he tried to. Putin's big wait was watching the EU & Brexit situation solidify into a split.

Bloody hell is the nothing your lot won't blame brexit for?

If you think brexit and by extension the British have any blame for this. Then you would have to admit that we historically have spent a lot of money in the defence of Europe through the cold War up to today.

Which is something that really should have been taken into account by our beloved friends in the EU but was not during negotiations. We have stationed in Poland and other Eastern European nations anti aircraft missiles.

Who else in the European Union is paying for the defence of the continent? The Germans have behaved appallingly as is their want. Not allowing RAF planes to fly over their air space. A temporary ban on a gas pipe line does not cut it either. They are the ones with the most trade in Europe with Russia so they can hurt them the most.

So Britain has to pay for the defence of Europe but we can trade on equal terms as the Canadians when it comes to trade with them. Hell they even offered better terms for financial trade to Ecuador then they have us(source the Telegraph) yet for some reason it down to us to defend them and partly our fault that Putin invaded.

Got a lot of respect for you @steff but if you really think we are even in the picture in this problem then you would have to concede the EU really needed to think about that during brexit negotiations.

Also how would brexit have made any difference to us wanting to kick Russia out of swift but the Germans, Dutch and a country I love but often behaves badly Italy did not want to kick them out.

Seen a few quotes recently how some of the Democrat Americans who thought we were stupid for Brexit are now starting to understand it more.

One of the issues with the EU are that it is to big and it's people have to many vested interests and different objectives for it to ever work as is being demonstrated with this crisis. The Germans care first and foremost about money. They will do a few things for show but not a lot else.

Also what if Macron gets his European army who would have the final veto on what it was sent to do? It would be a European army with I assume heavily reliant on French defence contracts sat on a beach somewhere while politicians argued what it could and could not do.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

Escalating sanctions is a terrible strategy when the initial sanctions are doing nothing. They have to hurt for the escalation of them to be a threat.

Here's a good breakdown of Germany's recent actions and inactions:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/26/olaf-scholz-gave-vladimir-putin-green-light-invade/

Just posted similar mate. Some on here really can not see the issue, because then it would involve criticising something they have defended to the teeth the last few years.

I really want to start a new thread titled I told you so. Just that and a picture of a guy sticking two fingers up.

As a trade organisation it is great but anything more and it is seriously dangerous.

 

[Rorschach]

The light touch sanctions that have been in place certainly won't do much of anything short term.

Much heavier sanctions much earlier will obviously do much more. I still suspect not enough, but anything more is desirable.

They have resisted calls for Russia to be banned from Swift and have now watered down the actions we have taken. They've refused to send weapons and stopped others from doing the same until pressure mounted.

When it comes to stopping Putin and helping Ukraine we cannot measure our actions by the cost to us - the only relevant measure is their efficacy.

The sanctions may already be biting. Queues at all Russian ATMs this morning and the stranglehold on the Russian central bank will stop them from buying up roubles with their foreign reserves. Their currency may be in the bricker by early next week.

 

[braineclipse]

Escalating sanctions is a terrible strategy when the initial sanctions are doing nothing. They have to hurt for the escalation of them to be a threat.

Here's a good breakdown of Germany's recent actions and inactions:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/26/olaf-scholz-gave-vladimir-putin-green-light-invade/

I never expected sanctions to have an initial short term effect. I don't think any sanctions could have been made that stopped Putin quickly.

I do think sanctions can have a longer term effect, escalating them makes sense to escalate that longer term effect. They have hurt, they will hurt more in time.

 

[scaramanga]

The sanctions may already be biting. Queues at all Russian ATMs this morning and the stranglehold on the Russian central bank will stop them from buying up roubles with their foreign reserves. Their currency may be in the bricker by early next week.

I really, really hope so.

 

[scaramanga]

I never expected sanctions to have an initial short term effect. I don't think any sanctions could have been made that stopped Putin quickly.

I do think sanctions can have a longer term effect, escalating them makes sense to escalate that longer term effect. They have hurt, they will hurt more in time.

I think where we're differing here is that I had already assumed the longer term sanctions were going to be in place regardless. Putin and Russia have reached a point now where they cannot be allowed to gain financial traction as they have again.

In my mind that case had already been made, the only question was what we would do in the meantime to make Putin leave Ukrain and do so quickly. I know we differ on our limits here, but if sanctions were never going to do that, we should have skipped straight to the no fly zone.

 

[Rorschach]

Changing a decades old policy taking a couple of days. I get the wish for it to happen sooner, but I'm not sure about calling it delaying tactics.



A list of people and entities that I want to have a strong ethical foundation would definitely includes international arms dealers.

We need weapons of war. We need people to produce and sell said weapons. Them being sensitive over war seems more or less like the best possible available option.

Quite the reversal of these policies now across the board from Scholz.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497881123824848898

 

[Gazza Dazzla]

Changing a decades old policy taking a couple of days. I get the wish for it to happen sooner, but I'm not sure about calling it delaying tactics.

I don’t see any reason why it would take time to change it. Also it’s not like this invasion and what would be required from the rest of Europe and NATO nations came as a shock to anyone, it’s been on the cards since Nov or even before.

 

[Rorschach]

I really, really hope so.

The ECB and the FED have the Russian Central bank by the gonads. Most of Russia's foreign reserve is held on their books. If Russia wants to draw down money to say support the war effort or prop up the currency the west's central banks can just say, no you can't have it. This is an inherent weakness in Putin's position. He uses the security of western institutions when it suits him but these very institutions can be used against him.

The swift thing is bad but this is the real nuclear option according to the economic interweb nerds.