All very well, except for the fact that you could have said much the same about Chelsea facing Barca and Bayern last season..........and still they fudged us.
The only difference is that Chelsea's revolutionary 9-0-1/10-0-0 formation is one they are capable of playing. Arsenal cannot do that.
Bayern are still capable of fudging up if Arsenal pull off what they pulled off against Barca, getting outplayed to hell but Walcott counter attacking after Bayern miss a bunch of chances.
It's a case of Arsenal not being able to win 1-0, but maybe being able to win 2-1 or 3-2 if they are insanely lucky and Bayern let Walcott run 50-66% of the pitch a few times.
Football has always been a game in which a team can miss 100 shots and their opponent can score with 1. There is no match that you can say will 100% go a certain way. That's why 2 legged ties are awesome, Bayern were hugely disappointing in the final, but it was a one off game, they were at home, but Barca were even more disappointing. The one match I wanted them to win and they couldn't even do that, over 2 legs...
But I'm not worried. Arsenal always go out in the first round of the knockout stages. If Arsenal get past a couple of teams, then maybe I'll start to worry about the Chelsea miracle striking twice, but I'm of the opinion that extra games for Arsenal with virtually no chance of winning the competition isn't something to worry about yet, but that's if they pull off a miracle here.
I'm going to be extremely disappointed in Bayern if they even let Arsenal get a respectable loss over the 2 legs. I'm not desperate enough to just want any result that'll knock Arsenal out yet. I want them crushed.
I think Arsenal will win the first leg 2-1 because
A) They'll be like a wounded animal after the FA Cup defeat
B) They wont show the respect or be fearful that perhaps Bayern's German counterparts currently are
C) Bayern might be going into the game not having been in many strong tussles domestically to make them more 'battle hardened'
D) Podolski will be up for it!
I wouldn't be too upset with that; They are a confidence team and that confidence can quickly turn into complacency and I think that complacency could filter into their game against Villa and if not that, then definately their game after that against us.
I also don't want them to look forward to playing away matches because the atmosphere at the Emirates has become toxic. At least not until after they've played us...
A: Meh. I'd rather fight a dog with 2 legs than 4. I get your point, but if they are capable of performing better than they would have if they were still in the F.A cup, what does that say about their team? (It's true though. They will try harder.)
B: I don't know about that. Wenger recognizes Bayern are better than Arsenal, he recognized that before the F.A Cup game. If Blackburn wasn't enough to make Arsenal fear Bayern more than they would have, I'll be surprised. But if they don't respect Bayern's ability, that would probably be worse for them. Imagine playing Real Madrid without knowing anything about them. It'd be a disaster, I'd rather Arsenal go into the game thinking they can outplay Bayern rather than go into the game like Man United did against Real Madrid.
C:
27-01-2013 VfB Stuttgart 0 : 2 Bayern Munich
02-02-2013 Mainz 05 0 : 3 Bayern Munich
09-02-2013 Bayern Munich 4 : 0 Schalke 04
15-02-2013 Wolfsburg 0 : 2Bayern Munich
23-01-2013 Arsenal 5 : 1 West Ham
30-01-2013 Arsenal 2 : 2 Liverpool
02-02-2013 Arsenal 1 : 0 Stoke
09-02-2013 Sunderland 0 : 1 Arsenal
Bayern just won 4-0 vs a Schalke team that drew 2-2 with Arsenal and beat them 2-0.
Arsenal just had a 1-0 with a Rugby team.... They may be battle hardened because Foy reffed their home game against Stoke and as a result, Arsenal did have a battle. (Although Owen's punches suck.) But Bayern had the harder games.
D: Wenger currently thinks Podolski's best place is Arsenal's bench. He has been benched for their last 3 games. Wenger probably isn't stupid enough to not play him, but his 3 super subs against Blackburn were Walcott (promptly failed to track his runner 5 seconds after coming on and cost them a goal along with Cheesy), Cazorla and Wheelchair. So I'm not sure how highly he does value him... But anyway, 1 player being up for it does not make up for Arsenal being the inferior team, they need 11 players that are up for it to avoid embarrassment.
------------
Ignoring Bayern being the better team and all the obvious things...
A: The crowd may turn quicker than usual.
B: They have no lb. Monreal is cup tied as he played for Malaga (who have a better chance of winning the CL than Arsenal do). Vermaelen at LB is a train wreck every single time he plays there. It's amazing. There is no good alternative. Sanga has been awful at full back lately but even if he played LB and did well it'd mean Jenkinson would be at rb. Coqelen or whatever his name is might play there but he isn't exactly solid.
C: Bayern do not concede goals.
D: Arsenal will have a lot of pressure on them. That pressure doesn't usually cause them to play like world beaters, it usually causes the fans to label them all "bottlers" and causes a media frenzy when Arsenal are out of all competitions.
Think back to Milan last year, points B and D apply. The away leg was the first leg, it did not go well for them. They had no pressure for the home leg and salvaged some pride. I don't think Vermaelen played lb for the 2nd leg either.
For bonus points, whenever Vermaelen plays left back, it usually fudges up his CB form too.
