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Serious relegation fears

X-axis is number of points, Y-axis is the probability of finishing on that many points, based on Caley's statistical models. And the number atop each bar is the probability of winning the title if we finish on that many points.

For example, Spurs have roughly an 18% chance of finishing on 78pts and, if we did, we'd have a 41% chance of being crowned champions.

If you go over to Michael Caley's Twitter feed, you'll find some explanation. The model predicts game outcomes based on the number and quality of chances each team creates and concedes, running every match left in the season and adding it all up. Obviously, it's only a model, but it's interesting stuff.

Caley also features on www.cartilagefreecaptain.com, which is worth a read.
Thanks. That's a really good link. I was looking at the stats and Leicester have allowed more shots from danger zones than even Villa. Lucky cloggers.
 
Anyone watching MOTD? Can Hazard really say that the fans , the club and the players don't want Tottenham to win the league? Given that they still have to play both us and Leicester? We heard Fabregas say it midweek and now Hazard tonight speaking for the whole club. I know we all knew that anyway but to actually blatantly say it outright and not even give a pretence of professionalism is a bit out of order
 
Anyone watching MOTD? Can Hazard really say that the fans , the club and the players don't want Tottenham to win the league? Given that they still have to play both us and Leicester? We heard Fabregas say it midweek and now Hazard tonight speaking for the whole club. I know we all knew that anyway but to actually blatantly say it outright and not even give a pretence of professionalism is a bit out of order

the more they say stuff like that the better imo

they can't risk not putting it in against Lestina if thats the narrative
 
GHod I'm so drunk

I was at the game today and I was in corporate

All I heard was united and Everton fans talk about us and how we play compared to ther sides
 
the more they say stuff like that the better imo

they can't risk not putting it in against Lestina if thats the narrative

And yes, you are right. If they appear to roll over against Leicester everyone can point back to comments such as these.
It just galls me that professionals in any sphere would be so blatant in their bias. I am probably just being super-sensitive, and unrealistic in my expectations.
 
the more they say stuff like that the better imo

they can't risk not putting it in against Lestina if thats the narrative
Yup, hopefully the Chavs will realise that they won't be allowed to get away with just rolling over for Leicester despite publicly stating that they intend to do so!

However I can't help but think we'll get fudged over again like Lasagne-gate and Munich-gate :eek::mad:
 
Anyone watching MOTD? Can Hazard really say that the fans , the club and the players don't want Tottenham to win the league? Given that they still have to play both us and Leicester? We heard Fabregas say it midweek and now Hazard tonight speaking for the whole club. I know we all knew that anyway but to actually blatantly say it outright and not even give a pretence of professionalism is a bit out of order

The Chelsea fans that I know only care about two more results this season, beating us and rolling over for Leicester. Stamford Bridge will be 100% behind Leicester on the last game of the season. Effectively, we've got to play one more game than them.
 
The Chelsea fans that I know only care about two more results this season, beating us and rolling over for Leicester. Stamford Bridge will be 100% behind Leicester on the last game of the season. Effectively, we've got to play one more game than them.
No surprise at all that their fans feel that way. Like you I know a few who would love to have it in their power to screw things up for us. I just did not expect their players to be quite so open about it. My naivety I guess.
 
The Chelsea fans that I know only care about two more results this season, beating us and rolling over for Leicester. Stamford Bridge will be 100% behind Leicester on the last game of the season. Effectively, we've got to play one more game than them.
Bit like the Spammers I know, who said that conceding the last minute equaliser against Leicester didn't hurt nearly so much once they realised that point might help deny Tottenham the title :rolleyes:
 
Lots of variables still and we could finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Two key variables are, what effect Vardy missing will have on Leicester, and whether we can avoid dropping points against Chel$ea. A draw against them wouldn't be a surprise.

The Spurs team have to focus on themselves only, and on one game at a time. Leicester should beat Swansea even without Vardy. First goal is crucial and they simply don't concede many. I'm hopeful rather than expectant.
 
fudging LOVE IT that Fibreglass and Hazard have actually SAID what we all have felt they feel!
That they have said it is GREAT motivation for Delle, Harry and co going into the match. It also says to me that THEY are feeling the pressure from their fanbase slightly too much. I think i'd be more worried if there was more silence from their side on the matter as it would betray a steely determination.
The fact that they openly say their match with us is their cup final kind of says they are willing themselves to try and win,rather than actually training/planning for it. Sort of like saying to their fans "when the Spurs batter us, honestly we did try and know how important it is".
We'll pump them 5-1 cause mass wrist-slitting along the Kings Road and in Leicester!
COYMFS
 
Thanks. That's a really good link. I was looking at the stats and Leicester have allowed more shots from danger zones than even Villa. Lucky cloggers.
Unfortunately, there's luck, and then there's having a good shot-stopper in goal and a couple of CBs who play deep and central, set up to block shots.
Still lucky bastards though.
 
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The table would indicate otherwise, of course, but ever since their city game away, bar a few exceptions, Leicester have looked like a team fighting well to avoid relegation. I really hope the absence of their main threat will weaken them some today. Unfortunately, Swansea aren't exactly world beaters, so I'm expecting a home win.

Here's to hoping their lucky pendulum turning last time out though. Leicester really have been looking like a team with a few draws in them. It's really just the luck part that either has to be neutralised or somehow swing against them for the first time this season. Get in, swans!
 
Bit like the Spammers I know, who said that conceding the last minute equaliser against Leicester didn't hurt nearly so much once they realised that point might help deny Tottenham the title :rolleyes:

Spare a thought for Arsenal fans ! They are getting panic in the knowledge they had helped us directly in our league title race by beating Leicester home and away this season. If not for Arsenal, Leicester would have won the league title by now. So, we should be grateful to Arsenal for that ! :p
 
Seriously man, you can't put the words "Kane" and "unforgivable" in the same sentence.

I know it's just hyperbole but it sounds very entitled and ungrateful when you roll out words like that.

I know Kane's goals are one of the main reason we are still in the title race. But still he has wasted too many of those one-on-one chances this season. Remember, Kane also wasted a similiar chance against Everton at home when he was all alone with the goalie but hit it straight at the goalie and we ended up throwing away 2 valuable points. IMO, regardless of how good or bad a striker is, they should be scoring those one-on-one chances as goalkeepers' options are very limited in those situations. Kane has scored many wonder goals but he really should be improving his one-on-one chance records.
 
Spare a thought for Arsenal fans ! They are getting panic in the knowledge they had helped us directly in our league title race by beating Leicester home and away this season. If not for Arsenal, Leicester would have won the league title by now. So, we should be grateful to Arsenal for that ! :p

I don't know any Arsenal fans who feel like that. They are just gutted to be behind us and negative about their future under Wenger. There is so much I'll will around that club now.
 
I know Kane's goals are one of the main reason we are still in the title race. But still he has wasted too many of those one-on-one chances this season. Remember, Kane also wasted a similiar chance against Everton at home when he was all alone with the goalie but hit it straight at the goalie and we ended up throwing away 2 valuable points. IMO, regardless of how good or bad a striker is, they should be scoring those one-on-one chances as goalkeepers' options are very limited in those situations. Kane has scored many wonder goals but he really should be improving his one-on-one chance records.

I think that you are wrong and if you looked at any other striker in the League, you would find that they had missed as many opportunities or more.
 
No surprise at all that their fans feel that way. Like you I know a few who would love to have it in their power to screw things up for us. I just did not expect their players to be quite so open about it. My naivety I guess.

I agree. I think it is a unprofessional to say it even if you think it but then why should we expect any class from that mob. What ever happens to us, we will be playing champs league football next season. It's been a pleasure to see that toxic little club implode this season. Hazard, Fabregas and Costa are only marginally more popular with the fans than we are. Thanks Scara for getting the site back up.
 
I have always taken the Chelsea game as a banker for Leicester - 3 points nailed on.

If we are going to win the league, we need either Swansea or Everton to do us a favour (i.e. draw) and Man United to win.

We are more than capable of winning all our games; it will be the true form of champions if we do.

Sky Sports news have just said that Leicster's win rate is around 25% with Jamie Vardy, Swansea do have a few spurs old boys that can do us a big big favour.
 
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