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Putin & Russia

Here's a decent explanaition why ukraine is important to russia and why they don't want them to join nato.

In addition to the psychological trauma caused by Ukraine's secession, Russia has other geopolitical and strategic reasons to regret this fact. First, Ukraine shares borders with highly populated regions of the Russian Federation, such as Central, Central-Rich-Soil (Centralno-Chernozemny), and the North Caucasus.. Thus, the geographic and demographic links with Ukraine extend to the very heart of Russia and spread to the rest of the Russian territories.

Second, the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports in Odessa, Il'ichovsk, Nickolaev, and Mariupol were very important economically for the former Soviet Union. These ports provided more than 20 percent of export supplies to the Soviet Union. Trans-European gas pipelines "Brotherhood" ("Bratstvo") and "Union" ("Sojuz"), and the oil pipeline "Friendship" (Druzhba") run across Ukrainian territory. For the former Soviet Union, these facilities had significant importance as economic links with European states, and remain very important for Russia today. Ukraine's independence would, to some extent, separate Russia from Europe. Thus, one of the Russian objectives is preventing Ukraine from creating a new trading network in Europe that will bypass or compete with that of Russia.

Third, Ukraine had been making a substantial contribution to the Soviet economy. For example, in the former Soviet Union, Ukraine had been producing about 40 percent of steel, 35 percent of coal, and a considerable share of food products. According to UNESCO's estimations, Ukrainian scientific and technical capabilities comprise more than 6 percent of those of the world.10 Despite the current economic difficulties in Ukraine, its industrial, agricultural, and scientific potential would add to those of Russia, should it be under Moscow's direct or indirect control.

Fourth, Ukraine played a significant role in the Soviet military-industrial complex. Some experts assert that 25 percent of all Soviet armaments had been produced in Ukraine.11All of the Soviet SS-24 missiles were manufactured at Ukrainian enterprises. Thus, Ukraine's secession breaks cooperation links in the military-industrial complex of the former Soviet Union, which may affect Russia's defense industry. Since the Russian economy has inherited military-oriented features, restoration of cooperation with Ukraine within a single military-industrial complex is one of the top priorities for the Russian leadership. Most Russian politicians speak about "restoration of the old economic cooperation," which, in fact, had been servicing mostly the military-industrial complex of the former Soviet Union.

Fifth, Ukraine is the critical region for Russia's military strategic interests in South-Western and Western Europe. In fact, overnight Russia has been thrown back to its seventeenth-century borders, with rather limited access to the Baltic and Black Seas. Re-establishing some form of "confederation" with Ukraine under Moscow's command would give Russia access to the vital sub-regions of Europe and create the superpower image that Russia has been striving for. Ukraine has a large-scale military infrastructure which serviced more than one million of the former Soviet troops. Some elements of this infrastructure are vital for Russia; for example, Sevastopol, the key naval base of the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet. In fact, the city of Sevastopol was originally created as a military naval base. Protecting Russian military-strategic interests in Southwestern and Western Europe without Ukraine would require Russian creation of a completely new military infrastructure, which is extremely costly and may not be adequate for Russia's aspirations in the region. That is why Russia is very sensitive to the loss of Ukraine as a military-strategic area, and makes attempts to maintain its strategic presence in the Black Sea and control the port of Sevastopol as a key naval base for the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
 
Its too late to send troops now but it could have should have been done before as a defensive force.

now we should send in our versions of the Wagner group with proper air defence weapons
Mercenaries? I was thinking about that too. Let's call them little yellow and blue men (hmm...bit itk that)
 
Mercenaries will usually only sign up to a side that has a good chance of winning.

This will be guerrilla warfare and sadly terrorism.
 
So Ukraine is different because we do understand the complexities on the ground? Creating a war in Ukraine would work, but the other interventions and wars in these other nations didn't. Good intentions...pretty terrible outcomes every time.

Sending in actual troops obviously isn't on the table.

I think sending/selling weapons is a solid approach, has already been done, should arguably have been done to a greater extent already.

Doing more of it earlier could be argued to escalate further, potentially contributing to a war, I can understand caution. Now there is a war. A war between an imperialist aggressor and a sovereign country looking to defend itself.

Interventions that risk escalation to other countries and a war between nuclear powers can't happen. Interventions without that risk though.

What do you propose as the alternative? Economic sanctions that probably won't work short term. Hope that Ukraine can defend itself without additional weapons from the west. See what happens?
 
Just to clarify, it would have been acceptable for Soviet troops to come into Ireland to help its independence? Thankfully this didn't happen, can you imagine the fallout and maybe war it could have caused? Just look at what occurred on America's doorstep during the Cuban missile crisis.
For any democracy.

Dictatorships don't get to play with the grown ups.
 
But Northern Ireland is British and the troubles were effectively a civil war with a nation state. It’s not a foreign campaign the British army was deployed there to fight that campaign and keep order but they are the native force they were not an occupying force.
It was an invasion at some point. I think it was in the 1600s.

At that point international help would have been fine.
 
What is clear is that not letting Ukraine into NATO wasn't enough. Putin said he wanted assurances that it would never happen, but as far at I know there wasn't active work leading to membership before the invasion.

However this ends short term the long term goal should be a free Ukraine as a full NATO member. As Putin has repeatedly made clear that's ultimately the only thing that will stop him.

Unfortunately the path to that seems difficult or impossible unless Ukraine can mount a long lasting defence or insergency wearing down Russian morale for this atrocity over what would likely be a rather long time.

Another dreadful day in Ukraine for both civilians and military forces no doubt. fudging heart wrenching to think about.
 
Sending in actual troops obviously isn't on the table.

I think sending/selling weapons is a solid approach, has already been done, should arguably have been done to a greater extent already.

Doing more of it earlier could be argued to escalate further, potentially contributing to a war, I can understand caution. Now there is a war. A war between an imperialist aggressor and a sovereign country looking to defend itself.

Interventions that risk escalation to other countries and a war between nuclear powers can't happen. Interventions without that risk though.

What do you propose as the alternative? Economic sanctions that probably won't work short term. Hope that Ukraine can defend itself without additional weapons from the west. See what happens?

Essentially what the west is doing. There are no easy answers or quick fixes here. One thing is for sure is fuelling all out war with Russia would only cause many more to die and could have pretty terrible know on effects. See the afore mentioned nations where proxy wars or direct intervention where methods applied.

It might be a little tenuous but you could make the argument that NATO (which is led by the US) has contributed to this situation. And it dates back to the 2014 revolution and before. Let’s not forget that despite the corruption it was a democratically elected president that the US helped to overthrow. US politicians were visiting the demonstrators protests, funding them and trying to overthrow this elected albeit corrupt regime. It in no way legitimises Russias actions but you start to appreciate a more complex picture where empires collide. Funding a Ukrainian war however could be the worst more damaging intervention of all. Russias military hardware is extensive.
 
It was an invasion at some point. I
Essentially what the west is doing. There are no easy answers or quick fixes here. One thing is for sure is fuelling all out war with Russia would only cause many more to die and could have pretty terrible know on effects. See the afore mentioned nations where proxy wars or direct intervention where methods applied.

It might be a little tenuous but you could make the argument that NATO (which is led by the US) has contributed to this situation. And it dates back to the 2014 revolution and before. Let’s not forget that despite the corruption it was a democratically elected president that the US helped to overthrow. US politicians were visiting the demonstrators protests, funding them and trying to overthrow this elected albeit corrupt regime. It in no way legitimises Russias actions but you start to appreciate a more complex picture where empires collide. Funding a Ukrainian war however could be the worst more damaging intervention of all. Russias military hardware is extensive.

What the west has done incudes weapon sales. It's likely to include further such actions. You supprt that then I take it?

There have been escalations from NATO and NATO countries. Not looking to defend all of that. But there has also been caution in the face of sheer aggression from Russia. Including not pushing hard for NATO membership for Ukraine. That hasn't been enough to appease Putin who is presenting lies and has as far as I can understand been looking for a rationale/casus belli.

More could have been done to appease Putin, but that also has rather obvious downsides.
 
Here's a decent explanaition why ukraine is important to russia and why they don't want them to join nato.

In addition to the psychological trauma caused by Ukraine's secession, Russia has other geopolitical and strategic reasons to regret this fact. First, Ukraine shares borders with highly populated regions of the Russian Federation, such as Central, Central-Rich-Soil (Centralno-Chernozemny), and the North Caucasus.. Thus, the geographic and demographic links with Ukraine extend to the very heart of Russia and spread to the rest of the Russian territories.

Second, the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports in Odessa, Il'ichovsk, Nickolaev, and Mariupol were very important economically for the former Soviet Union. These ports provided more than 20 percent of export supplies to the Soviet Union. Trans-European gas pipelines "Brotherhood" ("Bratstvo") and "Union" ("Sojuz"), and the oil pipeline "Friendship" (Druzhba") run across Ukrainian territory. For the former Soviet Union, these facilities had significant importance as economic links with European states, and remain very important for Russia today. Ukraine's independence would, to some extent, separate Russia from Europe. Thus, one of the Russian objectives is preventing Ukraine from creating a new trading network in Europe that will bypass or compete with that of Russia.

Third, Ukraine had been making a substantial contribution to the Soviet economy. For example, in the former Soviet Union, Ukraine had been producing about 40 percent of steel, 35 percent of coal, and a considerable share of food products. According to UNESCO's estimations, Ukrainian scientific and technical capabilities comprise more than 6 percent of those of the world.10 Despite the current economic difficulties in Ukraine, its industrial, agricultural, and scientific potential would add to those of Russia, should it be under Moscow's direct or indirect control.

Fourth, Ukraine played a significant role in the Soviet military-industrial complex. Some experts assert that 25 percent of all Soviet armaments had been produced in Ukraine.11All of the Soviet SS-24 missiles were manufactured at Ukrainian enterprises. Thus, Ukraine's secession breaks cooperation links in the military-industrial complex of the former Soviet Union, which may affect Russia's defense industry. Since the Russian economy has inherited military-oriented features, restoration of cooperation with Ukraine within a single military-industrial complex is one of the top priorities for the Russian leadership. Most Russian politicians speak about "restoration of the old economic cooperation," which, in fact, had been servicing mostly the military-industrial complex of the former Soviet Union.

Fifth, Ukraine is the critical region for Russia's military strategic interests in South-Western and Western Europe. In fact, overnight Russia has been thrown back to its seventeenth-century borders, with rather limited access to the Baltic and Black Seas. Re-establishing some form of "confederation" with Ukraine under Moscow's command would give Russia access to the vital sub-regions of Europe and create the superpower image that Russia has been striving for. Ukraine has a large-scale military infrastructure which serviced more than one million of the former Soviet troops. Some elements of this infrastructure are vital for Russia; for example, Sevastopol, the key naval base of the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet. In fact, the city of Sevastopol was originally created as a military naval base. Protecting Russian military-strategic interests in Southwestern and Western Europe without Ukraine would require Russian creation of a completely new military infrastructure, which is extremely costly and may not be adequate for Russia's aspirations in the region. That is why Russia is very sensitive to the loss of Ukraine as a military-strategic area, and makes attempts to maintain its strategic presence in the Black Sea and control the port of Sevastopol as a key naval base for the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

I’m sure that England could write something similar about Ireland or India perhaps. Doesn’t mean we should invade them.
 
What the west has done incudes weapon sales. It's likely to include further such actions. You supprt that then I take it?

There have been escalations from NATO and NATO countries. Not looking to defend all of that. But there has also been caution in the face of sheer aggression from Russia. Including not pushing hard for NATO membership for Ukraine. That hasn't been enough to appease Putin who is presenting lies and has as far as I can understand been looking for a rationale/casus belli.

More could have been done to appease Putin, but that also has rather obvious downsides.

Yes, limited hardware and plenty of intelligence achieve the aim of not letting Russia completely off the hook to waltz in. So in an imperfect situation, it is probably right. Putin had this plan since 2014. Intelligence sources have been aware of it.
 
It would make a massive difference. Effectively closing Russia to trade with the west, at least short-term. I'm a shareholder in a company that has software developers who are based in the nether regions of Russia. How this UK firm would pay these developers without SWIFT payments is an interesting question. So it would really amount to the West imposing its own iron curtain and it would be felt in Russia.

crypto?
 

I don't think it will come to that. Even if SWIFT is banned there are various options like opening a Rubble account. But it is an interesting backup plan. I've never bought or sold Crypto but many seem to say the costs to convert into fiat currency are quite steep? Maybe that's improved recently?
 
So Ukraine is different because we do understand the complexities on the ground? Creating a war in Ukraine would work, but the other interventions and wars in these other nations didn't. Good intentions...pretty terrible outcomes every time.


listen, I am man not without violence, in both my history and in my heart. But I have no desire or belly to go and fight Russia in Ukraine.

However, we are not starting a war in Ukraine, that’s what Russia has just done, all we would be doing is helping the Ukrainians defend themselves from an aggressor.
 
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