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Putin & Russia

metalgear said:
Isn't this mostly the Ukraine's fault. I mean break away by all means do it without any blemish. But wage a fringe war on minority groups, ally with the US, Nato membership too quickly and I guess you can expect something a reaction fro. Putin like this. I mean if Russia lives in your neighbourhood you'd won't want to draw any attention at all. Ukrainians and Russians can just get along just fine without NATO.




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If your "brothers" seek to align themselves with a defensive organisation, and YOU are the only thing they are afraid of, should you not ask yourself _why_?
If Ukrainans and Russians could get along just fine they would not _need_ NATO, you mean.
Recent events shows quite clearly why they thought they did need NATO.

Russia could not offer Ukraine the same liberty, democracy or financial prosperity as the west could, and instead of accepting that and try to improve relations on that basis to keep Ukraine neutral, they did as they always has done, started their bullying.

Putin has apparently always been obsessed with how history would remember him.
Well, good on him, he is now firmly in the history books, right next to certain other persons nobody would like to be associated with.
 
scaramanga said:
I don't think nukes should come into the equation.

The entirety of superpower peace over almost a century has been based on the fact that holding enough nukes to obliterate an entire country will stop them from firing them at you. If that isn't the case, then whether we go to the defence of a nation that desperately needs it or not, we're in big trouble. If Putin is unhinged enough and secure enough in his power that he can fire nukes at countries that have them, then we don't have any security against nuclear attacks anyway.
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I pray you are correct. However this assumes a rational mind from the person with the button and I'm not sure that is a base assumption anymore.

Some worrying reports are saying the hardliner inner circle of Putin's closest advisors are not being listened to. They too have been sidelined. There is only one paranoid little dictator with a Napolean complex making all the calls. That recent video of them all in turn reciting Putin's manufactured casus belli for the invasion is freaking some analysts out (and me) in that it indicates he may be only taking his own advice now. Add that to his veiled threat of nuclear war from yesterday (or the day before) is enough reason not test where his red line is on this.
 
SpurMeUp said:
So Ukraine is different because we do understand the complexities on the ground? Creating a war in Ukraine would work, but the other interventions and wars in these other nations didn't. Good intentions...pretty terrible outcomes every time.
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Not often I agree with you on political matters. But you are spot on here.
 
Rorschach said:
I pray you are correct. However this assumes a rational mind from the person with the button and I'm not sure that is a base assumption anymore.

Some worrying reports are saying the hardliner inner circle of Putin's closest advisors are not being listened to. They too have been sidelined. There is only one paranoid little dictator with a Napolean complex making all the calls. That recent video of them all in turn reciting Putin's manufactured casus belli for the invasion is freaking some analysts out (and me) in that it indicates he may be only taking his own advice now. Add that to his veiled threat of nuclear war from yesterday (or the day before) is enough reason not test where his red line is on this.
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He's either willing to fire nukes at other countries that have them or he isn't.

I don't think allowing him to trample all over Ukraine makes us or the rest of Europe any safer in that regard.
 
What about an Operation Anthropoid type solution? He's a despot, not a regime, so there won't likely be any hydra consequences.
 
Gutter Boy said:
What about an Operation Anthropoid type solution? He's a despot, not a regime, so there won't likely be any hydra consequences.
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he clearly has a lot of support though, the army are doing his bidding in Ukraine and the police the same on the streets at home
 
See Taiwan and China. There are things they fight about but you don't see Taiwan trying to persecute minorities to increase their sense of self identity and certainly not do anything draw attention from the Chinese Communist Party. Taiwan has been toeing this line for a longer time and has always been careful about not doing too much.

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Gutter Boy said:
What about an Operation Anthropoid type solution? He's a despot, not a regime, so there won't likely be any hydra consequences.
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I certainly wouldn't be against supplying Ukraine with plenty of drones and all of our intelligence on Putin's location (in the closet).
 
SpurMeUp said:
Yet in each and every one, peoples lives have suffered as a consequence. Many lament the stable, safe existence they had under dictators, relative to the mad max world they had post-intervention. Huge instability and destruction was caused by the west doing good. We created Isis. We destroyed what was a stable nation in Libya. We wrecked Afghanistan and turned it into pariah state run by fundamentalists. In each of these cases, lives were lost fighting for 'what was right' only to deliver worse than what was before.

Should we repeat this way of 'helping'?
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Your history of Afghanistan seems to start at a very defined (and rather recent) point.
 
glasgowspur said:
Is anyone else getting a little scared that its the end of days?
I mean we're all agreeing with @scaramanga in a political thread, scary or what?
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No there's little fear of world war out here in Asia. Stock markets, omicron, vtls and inflation rates are the key worries, not end of days.

Things may change if China fully sides with Russia due to extreme sanctions and the whole of Asia made to choose sides (US or China).


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scaramanga said:
I think we have to very quickly move to full (North Korea level) sanctions. No imports or exports, no trading in Sterling, Dollar or the Euro, removal from all international payment systems.

If that doesn't work then we move to heavily arming the Ukrainian forces, although it may be too late by that point.

If that still fails then the only remaining alternative would be to use our own forces. It's not an answer I like at all but I cannot accept a solution where we sit and allow this to happen.
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Not sure full North Korea sanctions are practically possible.

I would have liked to see heavy sanctions already planned and ready to be implemented from the opening salvo. These things take time, but there was time before the invasion actually happened.

Right now I'm all in favour of continuing to arm the Ukrainian forces. That too probably takes time.

Use of outside, NATO, forces I think it's an escalation that should be avoided.

We've seen repeatedly that a motivated resistance supported by outside hardware can cause years of problems for much more formidable forces than the Russians. Unfortunately that means years of suffering. If that's the Ukrainian choice their bravery in the face of authoritarian aggression should be applauded and supported in any way that doesn't risk nuclear war. For me the cutoff for that seems to be NATO forces involved in the fighting.

Hopefully Russian advances will be blocked, but doesn't look positive right now.
 
metalgear said:
Isn't this mostly the Ukraine's fault. I mean break away by all means do it without any blemish. But wage a fringe war on minority groups, ally with the US, Nato membership too quickly and I guess you can expect something a reaction fro. Putin like this. I mean if Russia lives in your neighbourhood you'd won't want to draw any attention at all. Ukrainians and Russians can just get along just fine without NATO.




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No, it's mostly, overwhelmingly the fault of the man responsible for invading another country.

I get your underlying point I think. But at the same time Ukraine is a sovereign country. Should be allowed to make their own decisions on alliances.
 
braineclipse said:
Not sure full North Korea sanctions are practically possible.

I would have liked to see heavy sanctions already planned and ready to be implemented from the opening salvo. These things take time, but there was time before the invasion actually happened.

Right now I'm all in favour of continuing to arm the Ukrainian forces. That too probably takes time.

Use of outside, NATO, forces I think it's an escalation that should be avoided.

We've seen repeatedly that a motivated resistance supported by outside hardware can cause years of problems for much more formidable forces than the Russians. Unfortunately that means years of suffering. If that's the Ukrainian choice their bravery in the face of authoritarian aggression should be applauded and supported in any way that doesn't risk nuclear war. For me the cutoff for that seems to be NATO forces involved in the fighting.

Hopefully Russian advances will be blocked, but doesn't look positive right now.
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That's not acceptable to me as a solution and I don't think it should be to anyone with a conscience.

The likely result of your most extreme proposal is Ukraine being overrun with Russian troops and reduced to some pockets of Resistance-style fighting. As I'm sure many Russians know from Stalingrad and similar battles, this can continue for a long time - I don't think Putin particularly cares if it does.

As long as he can stand and claim that Ukraine is under Russian control, I think he'll live with fighting going on as long as it needs to.
 
I read an interesting point on Facebook of all places this morning.

The fact that the Kremlin hadn't prepared counter protests to the ones that have been happening all over the country suggests that they were not expecting them to happen. It's a wild hope but if teeny, tiny Putin has completely misjudged public opinion on this war, might some of those pulling his strings decide on someone else to lead?
 
scaramanga said:
I read an interesting point on Facebook of all places this morning.

The fact that the Kremlin hadn't prepared counter protests to the ones that have been happening all over the country suggests that they were not expecting them to happen. It's a wild hope but if teeny, tiny Putin has completely misjudged public opinion on this war, might some of those pulling his strings decide on someone else to lead?
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I've read on Twitter (so yeah, pinch of salt), that the way the US leaked intelligence early forced Putin's hand, and he invaded before the planned false flagged terrorist attacks could happen, maybe they did plan counter protests, but based on these?
 
scaramanga said:
That's not acceptable to me as a solution and I don't think it should be to anyone with a conscience.

The likely result of your most extreme proposal is Ukraine being overrun with Russian troops and reduced to some pockets of Resistance-style fighting. As I'm sure many Russians know from Stalingrad and similar battles, this can continue for a long time - I don't think Putin particularly cares if it does.

As long as he can stand and claim that Ukraine is under Russian control, I think he'll live with fighting going on as long as it needs to.
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Just as a heightened risk of nuclear war is unacceptable.

Live with fighting, loss of Russian soldiers over time. Sanctions which short term have little effect, but long term may start snowballing.

Over time this can turn public opinion, even leadership opinion, further against him.

I'm not one to hope for drawn out war or military conflict. In this instance I see no better outcome.
 
Baleforce said:
I've read on Twitter (so yeah, pinch of salt), that the way the US leaked intelligence early forced Putin's hand, and he invaded before the planned false flagged terrorist attacks could happen, maybe they did plan counter protests, but based on these?
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That runs rather counter to a lot of reports that the invasion happened because troops get antsy at staging posts (away from properly equipped forward bases) and they were sent in at the last possible minute.
 
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