Politics, politics, politics

[glorygloryeze]

@milo, funnily enough I think @scaramanga - even though he voted remain - has i believe given fairly coherent arguments about ways forward post-Brexit..

 

[milo]

@milo, funnily enough I think @scaramanga - even though he voted remain - has i believe given fairly coherent arguments about ways forward post-Brexit..

I don't. The two year time limit under A50 gives the upper hand to those that control the time limit and that is not us. After that we need unanimous support from the 27 for any new trade deal, that will be difficult to obtain.

Trade deals are complex and take a long time to conclude, there aren't any that have been concluded within the timescales that Scara thinks is possible.

Adding pressure to this is the fact that we will not be able to conclude any meaningful trade deals with other countries until our position with Europe is settled.

Finally, the EU has no reason to reward us for leaving. I hope that our exit will not be too acrimonious and that there is a compromise to be found but I think that it will be our government dressing up a duff deal rather than the other way around.

 

[SpurMeUp]

@milo, funnily enough I think @scaramanga - even though he voted remain - has i believe given fairly coherent arguments about ways forward post-Brexit..

Could you articulate the coherent ways forward as you understand them?

Personally think this whole Breadstick thing is waste of our governments time. When they could be focused on improving schools, hospitals etc instead they are trying to deal with a protest vote that means they have to find a way to leave a trading union. Which I don't think will even happen.

 

[glasgowspur]

I've got no beef with you and I am sorry if it appears that I do.

I agree with you that the Buzzfeed article got bogged down and lost its way but I think that the premise of how Facebook curates news is interesting. If it is true that 50% of Americans use Facebook as their primary news source, then that would be a massive change within a couple of elections where broadcast news was their major source.

I also think that the impact of the right-wing troll groups from 4chan and Reddit is fascinating. Not to mention that we have had a US election where the Kremlin in cahoots with Wikileaks have been hacking and releasing information to influence the result.

Regardless of whether you are pleased or displeased with the outcome, this is seismic.

I dont have any beef with you either milo.the reason voted as I did in the EU vote is because I didn't see either side have a clear strategy. Unfortunately I think that politics in general is going that way and it is being driven by social media.
the irony being social media is portrayed as the home of the liberal, yet they've lost the last 2 votes.
If elections are won and lost on social media it's is indeed seismic.

 

[glorygloryeze]

I don't. The two year time limit under A50 gives the upper hand to those that control the time limit and that is not us. After that we need unanimous support from the 27 for any new trade deal, that will be difficult to obtain.

Trade deals are complex and take a long time to conclude, there aren't any that have been concluded within the timescales that Scara thinks is possible.

Adding pressure to this is the fact that we will not be able to conclude any meaningful trade deals with other countries until our position with Europe is settled.

Finally, the EU has no reason to reward us for leaving. I hope that our exit will not be too acrimonious and that there is a compromise to be found but I think that it will be our government dressing up a duff deal rather than the other way around.

Hmm, time will tell.

What do you think could happen if Le Pen gets elected in France?

 

[milo]

Now you know better then that Milo, no one on this site has called a particular member a racist . We play fair so for you to suggest i trawl through this thread looking for it is a waste of my time.

However are you actually saying that the word racist has not been used in this thread and directed to those who voted out? because if you are then i am gobsmacked.

So why do you keep banging on about it?

I think that the leave campaign and Trump exploited racial tension and spread lies about immigrants during their campaigns. I think that is racist. I do not think that everyone that voted for either is racist. I wish that more people that voted for Brexit or Trump would condemn the racist elements of those campaigns and the after effects that they have caused.

 

[milo]

I dont have any beef with you either milo.the reason voted as I did in the EU vote is because I didn't see either side have a clear strategy. Unfortunately I think that politics in general is going that way and it is being driven by social media.
the irony being social media is portrayed as the home of the liberal, yet they've lost the last 2 votes.
If elections are won and lost on social media it's is indeed seismic.

I think that it is wrong to think that social media is the home of the liberal. Facebook is very right-wing and there are as many right-wing people on Twitter as liberals. Twitter five or six years back was more like you imagine but now there are thousands of right-wing trolls who attack anyone who says anything they disagree with. Their attacks on women and minorities are particularly horrific.

 

[Baleforce]

https://twitter.com/x/status/798268184503545856

 

[glorygloryeze]

Could you articulate the coherent ways forward as you understand them?

Personally think this whole Breadstick thing is waste of our governments time. When they could be focused on improving schools, hospitals etc instead they are trying to deal with a protest vote that means they have to find a way to leave a trading union. Which I think don't will even happen.

The coherent being that there is an alternative to the EU; that depending on individual country's priorities there may be trade deals to be had; that prioritising the EU project may not be as much of a priority to some countries as compared to having a good trading relationship individually with the UK.

At the end of the day, Brexit is basically a call top change our trading arrangement with Europe together with making sure that the buck for more of the country's decision-making stops within the country.

 

[milo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/799372160523452421

 

[milo]

The coherent being that there is an alternative to the EU; that depending on individual country's priorities there may be trade deals to be had; that prioritising the EU project may not be as much of a priority to some countries as compared to having a good trading relationship individually with the UK.

At the end of the day, Brexit is basically a call top change our trading arrangement with Europe together with making sure that the buck for more of the country's decision-making stops within the country.

No one has managed to explain how we go about that or how the loss of trade with the EU can be compensated for from the rest of the world considering the gravitational impact of international trade http://www.instituteforgovernment.o...steps-towards-an-independent-uk-trade-policy/

 

[milo]

What do you think could happen if Le Pen gets elected in France?

I don't know enough about French politics to comment

 

[milo]

 

[parklane1]

So why do you keep banging on about it?

.

Simple really and its for the same reasons you keep banging on about it. You obviously think it was the wrong thing to do and have made no secret of your opinion, i believe it was the right thing to do and like you i am expressing my opinion.

 

[glorygloryeze]

No one has managed to explain how we go about that or how the loss of trade with the EU can be compensated for from the rest of the world considering the gravitational impact of international trade http://www.instituteforgovernment.o...steps-towards-an-independent-uk-trade-policy/

Doesn't it also work that nobody has explained how staying in the EU will NOT be a disaster over the next 10 to 15 years, for example in terms of civil disorder when the public feels the power lies even further away than what they perceive it should do?

 

[SpurMeUp]

The coherent being that there is an alternative to the EU; that depending on individual country's priorities there may be trade deals to be had; that prioritising the EU project may not be as much of a priority to some countries as compared to having a good trading relationship individually with the UK.

At the end of the day, Brexit is basically a call top change our trading arrangement with Europe together with making sure that the buck for more of the country's decision-making stops within the country.

If this is coherent why the 'mays' and dependencies? Such uncertainty is not encouraging when our countries economic future is on the line.

Breadstick is based on a call for change. But do you think people voted for us to change our trading relationships!? That people are tuned into international trade? Or that they care where we buy and sell stuff to and from? That doesn't bother them, that is not what they are voting for. The EU is a customs union first and foremost. And don't get me started on sovereignty, I've not seen it, touched it, or it had any impact on my life. Maybe its a badge we all get once we attain it?

 

[glorygloryeze]

I don't know enough about French politics to comment

What i mean is what if another key country in the EU effectively votes for exiting the EU by electing a political party who are clearly wanting their country to leave the EU: what do you think would be the political ramifications for the EU if both the UK and France effectively voted to exit the EU?

 

[glorygloryeze]

If this is coherent why the 'mays' and dependencies? Such uncertainty is not encouraging when our countries economic future is on the line.

Is anything certain, especially when it comes to Economics? After all, some said it was 'certain' the UK would suffer by not joining the Euro; and that our Economy would tank post-Brexit. Things can change, you just have to judge what gives you the best chance to stay prosperous/steady/in control over the long-term.

Breadstick is based on a call for change. But do you think people voted for us to change our trading relationships!? That people are tuned into international trade? Or that they care where we buy and sell stuff to and from? That doesn't bother them, that is not what they are voting for.

There was a kaleidoscope of those who voted Brexit imo: some did vote Brexit because they wanted a change in the trading relationship (e.g. feeling frustrated that they had to wait for 20-odd countries to ratify a trading deal, when at times it would have been simpler to go it alone). Yes, there are times when being part of one Bloc deal can and often does cut down on bureaucracy but some would have seen this as unwieldy too often. Some voted Brexit because of a feeling that jurisdiction should stop here in terms of law (e.g. that the European Courts of Justice should not be able to overturn a domestic British law judgement). Then some voted for having our politicians actually being able to control immigration as they see fit, whilst some (like me) see the EU as a European Political Union project that ultimately will creep towards a subtle dictatorship for it to continue to exist. Overall, those who wanted any of these thought the possible Economic uncertainty that may come from leaving the EU was a price worth paying.

The EU is a customs union first and foremost. And don't get me started on sovereignty, I've not seen it, touched it, or it had any impact on my life. Maybe its a badge we all get once we attain it?

If the EU remains just a customs union i think most would be happy with that imo. The price of free movement for all citizens within it might be too high a price to pay for many though...
Oh and Soveriegnty HAS had an impact on your life: otherwise you might have been reciting old songs from the Third Reich during school (though i don't know how old you are lol..)

 

[SpurMeUp]

Is anything certain, especially when it comes to Economics? After all, some said it was 'certain' the UK would suffer by not joining the Euro; and that our Economy would tank post-Brexit. Things can change, you just have to judge what gives you the best chance to stay prosperous/steady/in control over the long-term.



There was a kaleidoscope of those who voted Brexit imo: some did vote Brexit because they wanted a change in the trading relationship (e.g. feeling frustrated that they had to wait for 20-odd countries to ratify a trading deal, when at times it would have been simpler to go it alone). Yes, there are times when being part of one Bloc deal can and often does cut down on bureaucracy but some would have seen this as unwieldy too often. Some voted Brexit because of a feeling that jurisdiction should stop here in terms of law (e.g. that the European Courts of Justice should not be able to overturn a domestic British law judgement). Then some voted for having our politicians actually being able to control immigration as they see fit, whilst some (like me) see the EU as a European Political Union project that ultimately will creep towards a subtle dictatorship for it to continue to exist. Overall, those who wanted any of these thought the possible Economic uncertainty that may come from leaving the EU was a price worth paying.



If the EU remains just a customs union i think most would be happy with that imo. The price of free movement for all citizens within it might be too high a price to pay for many though...
Oh and Soveriegnty HAS had an impact on your life: otherwise you might have been reciting old songs from the Third Reich during school (though i don't know how old you are lol..)

I think your first point nails the rational for Remain: most people who can judge believe that staying prosperous and steady means keeping trade with our closest neighbours. In essence it is that simple. How do you rationally judge this not to be prudent?

Re. your second point. With all due respect...bolocks! No one voted to stop trade with Europe. Few cared about trade deals, and those that did would have seen, as you do now, that the negatives around EU trade are likely outweighed by their positives. Personally I believe in lean governance. It simply doesn't make sense for the UK to have 30,000 extra civil servants dealing with all the required legal and trade bureaucracy that we will have to do inhouse. It's dull stuff, amply handled by a consortium of people in Brussels (many of whom are from the UK). And that's not even going into the benefits of negotiating trade deals with the weight of 550m odd consumers behind you, rather than 50m.

All credit to you for your rational well reasoned arguments. FWIW I do believe the media is completely biased and pro Remain, that things are not as black or white on these issues as many would maintain in the media, and there are some benefits to the UK being more agile (but these are more than outweighed by the losses to the UK imo). To your third point, you recognise that the EU is a customs union. To trade effectively we have free movement. The IF part, your fear I presume, that the EU won't remain just a customs union...well we have a veto on greater integration, as do other democratic countries many of whom are also Euro-sceptic, so why do you think the EU would become federal and not remain just a customs union? Its not rational imo.

I'm old enough to read a history book. To know that the EU was born out of a continent in ashes coming together to ensure that national sovereignty of EU nations is never again overrun by a Nazi like movement. And it succeeded with peace and prosperity since. Any conflicts have been quickly resolved often mediated by having a union. And you want to give this up?

While articulate and well reasoned, I don't think these arguments stack up. And the UK is to risk it all on some 'maybe's' which will incur generations of extra governance, admin and upheaval...for what exactly? What do we get back from this?

I just don't see it happening. Because there is no coherent plan to make it happen, because there is no rational option that works for us as well as the EU. The best politicians can do is to save face, possibly deliver some controls on immigration in return for a slightly withdrawn UK. Anything else and you end up with the UK observing the EU laws anyway, but not having any control (ie less sovereignty than now!), or us losing out on EU trade that we may possibly make up somewhere else, though why we aren't accessing this other ex-EU trade now no one can explain.

Face it, Breadstick, Brisket, EU exit, is not in the UKs interests. No one knows how it can be realised to the UKs benefit or has a reasoned rational for doing it. It's the biggest farce of our time.

 

[milo]

Doesn't it also work that nobody has explained how staying in the EU will NOT be a disaster over the next 10 to 15 years, for example in terms of civil disorder when the public feels the power lies even further away than what they perceive it should do?

I don't think that it is possible to either disprove or prove the scenario that you paint. I also do not see that Brexit is necessarily a solution to people's sense of detachment from power/politics.