Politics, politics, politics

[monkeybarry]

"We'll need to spend lots and lots of money and employ lots and lots of people on permanent contracts for whom we'll have no work in 2 years"

The civil service mantra.

That's simply not true.

The work can easily be dragged out longer than two years

 

[milo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/798944904353153024

 

[Gutter Boy]

I very much doubt 90% of the population know what the single market is.

I still think the Canadian option is the only way to square the circle - a bespoke tariff elimination treaty and visa free travel.

 

[milo]

I very much doubt 90% of the population know what the single market is.

I still think the Canadian option is the only way to square the circle - a bespoke tariff elimination treaty and visa free travel.

John Curtis is normally pretty reliable (he is the guy who does the general election exit polls).

Something like the Canada deal would require an interim arrangement to cover the five to ten years that it would take to negotiate after we have left.

 

[scaramanga]

John Curtis is normally pretty reliable (he is the guy who does the general election exit polls).

Something like the Canada deal would require an interim arrangement to cover the five to ten years that it would take to negotiate after we have left.

Why would it take 5-10 years for us all to agree not to charge tariffs to each other?

That's what both sides want when you take all the bluster and bravado away.

 

[milo]

Why would it take 5-10 years for us all to agree not to charge tariffs to each other?

That's what both sides want when you take all the bluster and bravado away.

If that is the case why do they always take so long? Five years would be at the very low end for a trade deal of this kind, although I am assuming that we would not have the resources to negotiate it and an interim deal concurrently.

 

[scaramanga]

If that is the case why do they always take so long? Five years would be at the very low end for a trade deal of this kind, although I am assuming that we would not have the resources to negotiate it and an interim deal concurrently.

I suspect it's because they're either being created from scratch or are vastly different to existing agreements.

We, however, have a perfectly acceptable and functional trading agreement that doesn't need to change in either intent or substance. It's the trading agreement that we want, it's the trading agreement that European businesses want and it's the trading agreement that the likes of Merkel will be getting heavily lobbied to push for.

Once you take out the rhetoric from Juncker, it's the most logical, simple and beneficial result of these negotiations.

 

[milo]

I suspect it's because they're either being created from scratch or are vastly different to existing agreements.

We, however, have a perfectly acceptable and functional trading agreement that doesn't need to change in either intent or substance. It's the trading agreement that we want, it's the trading agreement that European businesses want and it's the trading agreement that the likes of Merkel will be getting heavily lobbied to push for.

Once you take out the rhetoric from Juncker, it's the most logical, simple and beneficial result of these negotiations.

There is no way that the EU will agree to a status quo trade deal if we want to restrict freedom of movement. After that it becomes a very difficult round of horse trading that would need to be agreed by all of the 27 EU states (and some of their regional governments). It is also likely that the UK government will need some form of approval from the devolved governments within the UK.

It is not just a case of sitting down and agreeing that we won't have tariffs if you won't. You would need to agree to what degree the UK continues to follow EU trade standards. How do you resolve disputes? Do we continue to have these governed within the EU or do we set up new mechanisms for this? What contribution do we continue to make to the EU for access to their markets, how is this structured? Are there restrictions on goods made outside of the EU/UK but assembled in the UK? Can we have a different agreement with the Rep of Ireland than we do the rest of the EU? Do we continue to be part of European fishing quotas, if not how do we agree fishing controls going forward? Does the UK get access to any EU trade agreements, do we inherit access to any of these, how much should we pay for this? Do we have different deals sector to sector? How do you govern this? Do the deals that the UK government has struck with Nissan (and presumably numerous other companies in two years time) meet EU regulations? Does the UK continue to follow EU employment law and tax harmonisation? Moving away from these would probably result in higher tariffs. What access do our financial and service companies get? Does the EU continue to allow non-UK/EU companies to base themselves in London to get access to the EU? How free are EU companies to move employees/jobs between the EU and UK? That's a couple of minutes stuff off the top of my head, there must be thousands more that would need to be resolved and reach an agreement that suits all 27 EU countries.

 

[scaramanga]

There is no way that the EU will agree to a status quo trade deal if we want to restrict freedom of movement. After that it becomes a very difficult round of horse trading that would need to be agreed by all of the 27 EU states (and some of their regional governments). It is also likely that the UK government will need some form of approval from the devolved governments within the UK.

I don't think that's quite so certain any more.

There's a few European governments who are or soon will be having to cover off a eurosceptic movement in their own countries. Europeans I know it who have previously been staunchly pro EU are starting to come around to the idea that we might be onto something - if they're changing their minds then I can guarantee millions of others are.

People are seeing past the bluster of Juncker and his ilk, and the logic behind making Brexit difficult for the UK simply isn't there. If the EU has to manufacture hardships for us in order to make leaving the EU bad, then it shows what a handicap the EU (as anything other than a free trade bloc) really is. No successful European economy will be raising barriers they may soon have to hurdle.

It is not just a case of sitting down and agreeing that we won't have tariffs if you won't. You would need to agree to what degree the UK continues to follow EU trade standards.

If you want to trade with a country you have to meet their trading standards - that's the same the world over. We would have to meet theirs in anything we trade in and vice versa.

How do you resolve disputes? Do we continue to have these governed within the EU or do we set up new mechanisms for this?

Take your pick of any multilateral method - the WTO one is pretty popular with most.

What contribution do we continue to make to the EU for access to their markets, how is this structured?

Why would we pay in a tariff-free market? Currently our payments are for membership of what we are told is a beneficial club. So we don't pay the subs, we don't get to be a part of the club, trading should have nothing to do with that.

If the EU wants to publicly admit that membership is actually a negative and that we're better off without then let them, but I don't think they want other countries peeking behind that particular curtain.

Are there restrictions on goods made outside of the EU/UK but assembled in the UK?

No, they're being sold from the UK - our dealings with other countries are none of their business.

The EU needs weaning off of protectionism like a departed 8 year old needs weaning off of using nappies.We have the opportunity to help them move into the big, scary world and should do so - I suspect most businesses in Europe would agree.

Can we have a different agreement with the Rep of Ireland than we do the rest of the EU?

Why would either country want something other than a free trade agreement?

Do we continue to be part of European fishing quotas, if not how do we agree fishing controls going forward?

No, that's nothing to do with trade.

Does the UK get access to any EU trade agreements, do we inherit access to any of these, how much should we pay for this?

No, why should we? Not in the EU is not in the EU.

We could probably hire every trade negotiator in the world for the cost of paying Greeks and Spanish not to work for a living.

Do we have different deals sector to sector? How do you govern this? Do the deals that the UK government has struck with Nissan (and presumably numerous other companies in two years time) meet EU regulations?

Free trade is free trade - it doesn't need nuance.

Does the UK continue to follow EU employment law and tax harmonisation?

No, that would be a terrible idea.

Moving away from these would probably result in higher tariffs.

No tariffs - that's a red line.

What access do our financial and service companies get? Does the EU continue to allow non-UK/EU companies to base themselves in London to get access to the EU?

As above.

How free are EU companies to move employees/jobs between the EU and UK?

Personally, I like the idea of freedom of movement. If it is restricted, I would expect sponsored people with guaranteed jobs to be able to move fairly easily like they can between most countries.

That's a couple of minutes stuff off the top of my head, there must be thousands more that would need to be resolved and reach an agreement that suits all 27 EU countries.

It doesn't have to suit all 27, it only has to suit those who will bear the brunt of covering our EU contributions and reduced trade to the UK. There is a rising tide in Europe that believes the EU to not be what it was once thought - governments will have to appease these EU sceptics or risk the likes of the AfD getting significant control.

Don't believe what people are saying publicly, deep down everyone knows free trade is good and that the EU can't admit to membership being a burden. Everyone is still busy swinging their dingdongs around right now, pretending they don't mind standing in the puddle. Trouble is, it's starting to smell and quite a few have noticed it.

 

[milo]

Quick question to that, have you read anything on Facebook or tacoter that leads you to think that Brexit or the Trump win was a good thing?

Yes plenty.

There are a lot of right wing commentators, politicians and supporters on both. Facebook in particular has played a very significant role in building and maintaining support for both Brexit and Trump.

This article covers my original point about how Facebook can be a news bubble that only shows you news that supports your preconceptions and how this might have influenced recent elections

https://www.buzzfeed.com/ryanhatesthis/the-far-right-is-a-meme

 

[milo]

I don't know of anyone who has been involved in trade negotiations either here or from other countries who has said that this will be as simple as you think @scaramanga. As I have no experience of this, I am deferring to those with better knowledge than me.

It is worth catching up on the first Brexit Select Committee meeting yesterday. Sir Simon Fraser (ex-Foreign Office Perm Sec) and Prof Catherine Barnard (Prof EU law at Cambridge) gave evidence on this very point.

With regard to mainland European Euroscepticism, I think that it is very different from its UK counterpart. There is understandably concern about refugees and the Eurozone (north/south economic split) but there is far less disagreement about freedom of movement of EU citizens or free trade within the EU. These are the issues that our negotiations will be centred around and I think that we should expect that if we are protectionist in some areas, the EU 27 will want to be protectionist of their national interests too.

 

[K.D.D.D.D.Soc]

How can anyone have any confidence in an establishment that can not set up an enquiry into a crime that most normal people are sickened by, having the competence of managing a successful Brexit?

 

[scaramanga]

I don't know of anyone who has been involved in trade negotiations either here or from other countries who has said that this will be as simple as you think @scaramanga. As I have no experience of this, I am deferring to those with better knowledge than me.

It is worth catching up on the first Brexit Select Committee meeting yesterday. Sir Simon Fraser (ex-Foreign Office Perm Sec) and Prof Catherine Barnard (Prof EU law at Cambridge) gave evidence on this very point.

With regard to mainland European Euroscepticism, I think that it is very different from its UK counterpart. There is understandably concern about refugees and the Eurozone (north/south economic split) but there is far less disagreement about freedom of movement of EU citizens or free trade within the EU. These are the issues that our negotiations will be centred around and I think that we should expect that if we are protectionist in some areas, the EU 27 will want to be protectionist of their national interests too.

I don't think anyone has brokered a trade deal where there's a perfectly sufficient, working and optimal one already in place. I'm fairly sure nobody has ever added tariffs to an existing free trade deal because doing so is such a patently stupid idea.

I also don't think that freedom of movement is as sacrosanct as you believe. In Germany, the suggestion that we could buy access to the free market by continuing our current financial contributions in lieu of free movement is a popular one.

 

[Gutter Boy]

John Curtis is normally pretty reliable (he is the guy who does the general election exit polls).

Something like the Canada deal would require an interim arrangement to cover the five to ten years that it would take to negotiate after we have left.

Why not use CETA as a starting point, then tweak a few things?

There was talk a few weeks ago that the Canadians were already advising us around that.

 

[Gutter Boy]

With regard to mainland European Euroscepticism, I think that it is very different from its UK counterpart. There is understandably concern about refugees and the Eurozone (north/south economic split) but there is far less disagreement about freedom of movement of EU citizens or free trade within the EU. These are the issues that our negotiations will be centred around and I think that we should expect that if we are protectionist in some areas, the EU 27 will want to be protectionist of their national interests too.

Europeans have emotional ties to the EU. Germany has war guilt; France, Italy and the Benelux war damage; Iberia the break from their dictators in the 70s; Eastern Europe a check on Russia; Ireland a check on Britain.

Britain, with the Scandinavians and Swiss, has none of that. Hence they are freer to make pragmatic decisions based on the costs and benefits.

I.e., other than perhaps Denmark, I can't see others making a break from it until it really starts collapsing.

 

[scaramanga]

How can anyone have any confidence in an establishment that can not set up an enquiry into a crime that most normal people are sickened by, having the competence of managing a successful Brexit?

What "crime" would that be?

If it's a "crime" that most people genuinely are sickened by, I'd expect to see a lot of fuss about it. Probably some large-scale protests, etc.

 

[K.D.D.D.D.Soc]

Child Sexual Abuse Enquiry, a sickening crime to me.

 

[scaramanga]

Child Sexual Abuse Enquiry, a sickening crime to me.

There is an inquiry and it's ongoing. So they have set one up and it's currently in the process of doing what it needs to do.

You make it sound as if the government chose not to bother or just asked some amateur to gloss over it.

 

[K.D.D.D.D.Soc]

Obviously your interpretation of "it's currently in the process" and mine differ, telling my missus I'm looking at paint charts isn't re-decorating the house. The government are probably hoping it can stubble from one setback to an other and give offenders enough time to cover their tracks or die, perhaps the press can pick some easy targets like 60/70's dj's and tv personalities so that major politicians, civil servants and police officers can sleep safely with their inflation proof pensions. I know it shouldn't matter as a lot of these kids were or are riff raff.

 

[scaramanga]

Obviously your interpretation of "it's currently in the process" and mine differ, telling my missus I'm looking at paint charts isn't re-decorating the house.

Not quite a relevant analogy.

It would be more accurate to say that you've hired a painter and decorator and paid a lot of money for him to take a look at what's needed and get started on working out how he's going to do it. That's a lot more than just looking at paint charts.

The government are probably hoping it can stubble from one setback to an other and give offenders enough time to cover their tracks or die, perhaps the press can pick some easy targets like 60/70's dj's and tv personalities so that major politicians, civil servants and police officers can sleep safely with their inflation proof pensions.

I can't see how anyone could have been given reason to think that. I've yet to hear an opinion expressed that suggests that will be the case. Anything else is pure guesswork.

I know it shouldn't matter as a lot of these kids were or are riff raff.

Again, that's the first time I've heard that suggested. I don't think there's any solid reason to believe that.