• Dear Guest, Please note that adult content is not permitted on this forum. We have had our Google ads disabled at times due to some posts that were found from some time ago. Please do not post adult content and if you see any already on the forum, please report the post so that we can deal with it. Adult content is allowed in the glory hole - you will have to request permission to access it. Thanks, scara

Politics, politics, politics

I agree but we also need to acknowledge that Clinton won the popular vote, Trump did not increase the Republican vote from last time but many Democrats did not come out to vote.

I think that Clinton was the wrong candidate, people do not warm to her. I don't think that Saunders would have won either. But I do think that the democrats could have won with a more effective communicator.

I do think though that simplicity of message is important in elections where people no longer get most of their news through traditional methods. Blaming minority groups is a simple message and is easy to convey.

Trump also won the Republican primary and definitely beat the odds by winning the presidency despite losing the popular vote.

Not entirely sure it's right to say that "Democrats didn't come out to vote". People who have voted for democrats in the past were not sufficiently convinced by Clinton and the Democrats to vote for them this time.

Blaming minority groups is a simple message and it's easy to convey to people who are struggling financially. Blaming racism, sexism and xenophobia for how people voted is similarly a very simple message that is easy to convey. At best an oversimplification and certainly lacking a lot of information about what is actually going on. Clinton herself called half of the Trump voters deplorables (though she later regretted that coming out). It seems to be a way too popular view among liberals though.
 
Very enjoyable read again Dubai. For the sake of debate, how do the liberal classes get their "heads out of their arses?" While the right can reminisce about the great days of the past, getting back there may drag every one to the bottom? Globalization is not an easy force to reverse and should we be pandering to people's base instincts of intolerance and bigotry, as our government are currently doing, to get there? I really don't think there is a simple way to reverse this trend. It took a war last time we were in this position.

Self-questioning should be a critical component of getting our collective heads out of our asses. the first question that should be asked is simply 'what is happening?'. The answer is that automation and globalization are creating a huge underclass of unemployed blue-collar people, who in turn see immigrants as competition for what jobs they have left and see the urban classes that *have* prospered due to globalization as utterly unconcerned with them and how they live - this is being exploited by nativist, populist movements across the Western world with ever greater degrees of success. The next question then becomes 'how do we stop or reverse this trend of populist, often nativist movements winning elections across the West?'. The answer is simple enough - win back the voters who are driving this trend. Namely, poor, formerly blue-collar, usually uneducated white voters - usually rural voters in countries where significant rural-urban divides exist, but otherwise both rural and urban voters in sufficiently developed nations. The next two questions then become 'should we make the effort of winning them back?', which speaks to the philosophical question of whether we engage with them *despite* what we have collectively labelled racist, misogynistic, xenophobic behaviour from them, and 'how do we win them back?' which is a more prosaic question that is concerned with methods, not justifications.

The answer to the first question is simple - yes, we absolutely should engage with them. They are people, people who have often been seriously misrepresented and smeared by what I would call and increasingly intolerant, regressive wing of the left, who in their haste to impose racial and social justice based on gender and identity politics (both noble aims in and of themselves) have taken to stupidly and counter-productively labelling an increasing number of things racist, misogynistic, xenophobic et al., creating an almost unspoken social order of 'acceptable' views and opinions that has done absolutely nothing, nothing whatsoever, to actually educate or inform people. Instead, it has turned them away by labelling them horrible people for holding opinions that as recently as a couple of decades ago were considered mainstream - this, when combined with the fact that the left has utterly given up trying to seriously fight the right on economic issues, has backfired horribly, and turned empathetic people who would have listened had you only approached them with a bit more understanding into people with grudges to bear against the people who ignored their concerns and labelled them 'bad' for believing things the urban chattering classes considered uncouth. Are there actual racists and sexists among the classes of people now driving this trend? *Absolutely*, there are. But spacegoating them all as racists and sexists, which is something the liberal classes (media, acacdemia, blogging class, nearly everyone of note) have done with disheartening regularity over the past year, does nothing to change the essential facts that, firstly, these are mainly empathetic people who were cheated out of the lifestyles, jobs and communities theirs parents possessed due to the onset of globalization, fierce competition by immigrants and automation - and, secondly, that these people still make up the majority of the voters you need to win elections/referendums and actually drive policy-making instead of sitting secure in your bubble of ideological purity where you only ever condescend to talk to people who agree with your worldview.

The answer to the second question is derived from the answer to the first - how do you win these people back? Well, firstly, you win by being what has become a rapidly unfashionable term among the chattering classes - you win by being 'colorblind'. You advocate for the economic and social prosperity of *all*, as opposed to selecting some groups for special advancement over others because of historic or current injustices. There is a logic to saying that one group has suffered more than another, necessitating special treatment for that group to bring them up to speed - however, it is not a universal vote-winning logic, it is not a unifying logic, it is not a logic that makes people feel a part of a wider society that values them as much as anyone else. Implicitly, such a policy makes one group of people feel unwanted compared to another - that's just how we are, it isn't going to change. That's why advocating for such policies has to be done with the lightest of touches and the most persuasive, understanding, tactful of ways - sadly, too many on the left do not possess such qualities and methods, and have done great harm to progressive causes by pig-headedly pursuing these divisive policies without understanding in the least how to first bring everyone together and forge a consensus about them. Thus, if we want to win again, we cannot afford such policies, given that we clearly are not skilled enough as a group to advocate for them in a manner that creates a unified public understanding of their necessity - ergo, we must be be colorblind now. Any policies the left puts forward must be based on this point - there cannot be a division between rural and urban poor on the basis of ethnic, religious or social 'in' and 'out' groups, it must equally be for the poor as a whole, regardless of color or creed, or it must not be pursued. Anything else will fail in this hyper-tense, post-fact political environment that now exists, and will only ultimately harm the minorities and disadvantaged groups that the 'liberal' progressive left ostensibly wants to help - , namely, by allowing populists to pander to the fear among the broader class of poor, blue-collar workers that the left doesn't give a damn about them and their 'unfashionable' troubles, as @Gilzeantoscore rightly points out.

(Continued)
 
Last edited:
Secondly, you win by fighting the right on economic grounds. Automation and globalization are irreversible - but the manner in which we cope with them need not be unchangingly neoliberal, in form and in function. For too long, the left has proposed band-aid solutions to the problems created by the rising class of unemployed Western workers left out of this brave new globalized world, accepting the fundamentals of governance and policy proposed by the right and fighting only on the smaller issues of minor policy differences. In short, it has failed to challenge the right on economic grounds, preferring instead to fight on social policies where it could find success. This is not was not an illogical move - for *decades*, the right wing press and right-wing governments drilled home the message that left-wing economic policies were unworkable, that the poor would be better off without them, that the 'loony' left was responsible for all their troubles and woes and that free-market capitalism held the answer to their problems. This was so successful that people happily voted against their own interests year after year - the unions that once fought for their rights against the powerful companies that employed them were villified and destroyed, leaving the average Western worker much weaker in terms of bargaining power. The nationalized industries that once provided employment in unfashionable out-of-the-way areas were destroyed and sold off, to be replaced by private industries that saw no economic reason to provide any similar employment or investment into those areas while pressing for the arrival of immigrants who would do the jobs they needed at much lower cost than native-born workers. The social safety nets that kept the poorest from destitution were systematically attacked in countries ranging from America to the UK, and continue to be villified today as being 'handouts' and 'welfare' for 'moochers' who didn't like working 'like the rest of us', despite the fact that more and more people are relying on what's left of them as their conditions worsen. And tax rates that once maintained a rough semblance of equality in society were dismantled, and a series of tax cuts and economic stimuli applied that has now seen wealth inequality grow to absolutely mind-blowing levels as the poorest are continuously villified for being poor while the rich get richer and richer.

To be sure, each of those phenomena were in part caused by frustration with those very same entities - the unions were indeed unproductive and abused their power over employers, nationalized industries were indeed uncompetitive and slow compared with private enterprises, and maybe some yuppies really did chafe under the punitive tax rates and invested and innovated when they were lifted. But in each case, the reduction or destruction of those entities led to tangible loss in the power of the working class people that relied on them relative to that of their employers and their social betters - and despite this, they voted for those policies with glee. This is what the right-wing press and right-wing political messaging has done, and they have been successful at this beyond their wildest dreams. Against this onslaught, the left survived by coopting many of the right's economic policies while maintaining their progressive stance on social issues, drifting into the center economically while being on the 'left' in terms of the balance between individual and societal rights. This was, as I said, logical.

But that won't work anymore. Working class people have now tired of the left's progressivism in social issues, and they feel like the left has no economic policies that help them in the face of globalization and automation, which, while it might or might not be true, certainly won't win the left their vote in future elections. To win back the people I mentioned, the left has to fight the right on substantive economic issues again. This means proposing *real* solutions to automation and globalization - a well-provided-for, absolutely permanent universal basic income, thoroughly applied without discrimination on the basis of race or ability. Tariffs, if necessary, to maintain 'uncompetitive' industries that nonetheless provide employment to people who would only feed into the ranks of the permanently unemployed were those industries to vanish. A consensus on immigration that *emphasizes* that, while there is *nothing* individually wrong with working-class immigrants, they do provide competition to local workers - thus, restricting immigration to manageable levels is an absolute necessity to care for workers of *all* races and creeds amidst the fallout of globalization. A sustained, intense effort to repatriate the stonkingly huge amounts of money stored in foreign tax havens, in conjunction with other governments around the world, many of whom are also tired of this phenomenon, be they on the left or on the right. A significant raise on tax rates for the wealthiest and no apologies made for proposing it - also, no excuses made for villifying and possibly persecuting the people who try to avoid it by fleeing overseas in the event of an electoral victory. And, most importantly, having made such proposals on all these issues, the left must work *incredibly* hard to reach out to the poor, and explain them to these people in the most simple, un-patronizing way possible - in much the same way that Trump and the Brexit campaign explained their positions to the white working-class poor in ways that they could understand, despite being labelled liars and demagogues by the wider media. Lies and demagoguery win elections. The left can fight the right in the same manner, and that fight starts by adopting positions like these and explaining them to the working-class poor in terms that they'll empathize with, true or untrue - never mind the backlash that will come from both the right-wing media and populace in general, the former because it's obvious why they would oppose such things, and the latter because that's what they've been indoctrinated into thinking.

Basically, if the left wants to win, the second plank after 'colourlessness' would be firm economic policies that show that they care about *all* of the blue-collar poor again, without consideration given to race, creed or ability. If the above sounds too extreme to contemplate, it's because decades of the left acquiescing to right-wing press and media demonization of such proposals has made it seem so to us in the cosmopolitan liberal class. But, as Brexit and Trump have shown, even the press nwo can't influence the working-class poor as much as they once could - so why should the left be scared?

One way or another, the defining trend of our times will be how governments react to the coming wave of automation-led layoffs - because if people thought globalization was bad for the working poor, they have *not* seen what's coming. In twenty years, it will be a disaster of unprecedented scale if we continue plodding like we are. And if the left has not forcibly made itself relevant again between now and then, it will be utterly destroyed. We need to get our heads out of our asses. And that means going back to what being on the 'left' once meant. Trump and Brexit should only be reaffirming it to us at this stage. Sadly, I see more people willing to double down or the whole 'they're racist, they're misogynists, they're mean' stuff than actually do the introspection that's required.
 
@DubaiSpur we shouldn't ignore personal responsibility, obviously it's preferable for progression to be managed but we all know this is coming, it's not the governments job to keep me employable, that's my look out alone

in my second career i'm in IT, computers are becoming so easy to use and so hard to fudge up that my long term job viability in this field isn't great so i'm teaching myself something else (in the 6 minutes a day I have to myself that is)

i get that people get trapped, life is hard, but you can only ever rely on yourself
 
@DubaiSpur we shouldn't ignore personal responsibility, obviously it's preferable for progression to be managed but we all know this is coming, it's not the governments job to keep me employable, that's my look out alone

in my second career i'm in IT, computers are becoming so easy to use and so hard to fudge up that my long term job viability in this field isn't great so i'm teaching myself something else (in the 6 minutes a day I have to myself that is)

i get that people get trapped, life is hard, but you can only ever rely on yourself

Well, what the government's job is and is not depends entirely on the mood of the people who vote for it. Genuine props to you for continuously improving yourself in that manner, mate, but for a whole lot of people that just isn't an option for various reasons, and the government is meant to take an interest in the well-being of those people given that they extract taxes and dictate social and economic policy that may or may not better their lot - but which will certainly draw their ire if it harms them.

In the end, the question globalization is asking us is whether we're all content to be freely transiting individuals in a borderless world or whether the concept of 'belonging' to a tribe (be it a country, an ethnic group or a religion) actually means something. After a period of flux, it seems like most people are coming down on the side of the latter. I have conflicting opinions on this trend, but in either case, the left needs to adapt to the political environment. So far, it's proven unable to effectively do so.

Same goes for automation - the question automation's asking us is simply 'are you smart enough to repurpose yourself in a world where an increasing number of jobs can be done by machines?'. In the Industrial Revolution and its aftermath, people repurposed by going from one menial job (on a farm, most likely) to another (in a factory, most likely), and employment didn't suffer. But now, we are seeing computers take on an ever-greater array of 'thinking' jobs ranging from driving to IT (including low-level coding and tech support), and I think what people don't want to confront is that there are an ever-growing number of people who simply cannot compete at that level anymore, no matter what you do - their lives and their educations weren't sufficient, and might never be. So what do you do with those people, those human beings caught in circumstances not of their own making?
 
Well, what the government's job is and is not depends entirely on the mood of the people who vote for it. Genuine props to you for continuously improving yourself in that manner, mate, but for a whole lot of people that just isn't an option for various reasons, and the government is meant to take an interest in the well-being of those people given that they extract taxes and dictate social and economic policy that may or may not better their lot - but which will certainly draw their ire if it harms them.

In the end, the question globalization is asking us is whether we're all content to be freely transiting individuals in a borderless world or whether the concept of 'belonging' to a tribe (be it a country, an ethnic group or a religion) actually means something. After a period of flux, it seems like most people are coming down on the side of the latter. I have conflicting opinions on this trend, but in either case, the left needs to adapt to the political environment. So far, it's proven unable to effectively do so.

globalisation is the human race levelling up, as for belonging to a tribe, i believe we all do, the human race, from earth, if we successfully escape this planet, evolution and timeline suggests it will be as a one race species
 
globalisation is the human race levelling up, as for belonging to a tribe, i believe we all do, the human race, from earth, if we successfully escape this planet, evolution and timeline suggests it will be as a one race species

Again, props to you for such magnanimous views, mate ;) . Sadly, 'in-group'/'out-group' psychology posits that you can only really identify with a 'tribe' if there's another tribe to contrast yourself against - i.e, if there's some tribe to compete with for resources and general utility. Otherwise the social glue that sticks people together while negating all their personal/physical differences just isn't there.Thus, the idea of people all uniting into a human 'tribe' as opposed to ethnic/religious/national tribes only holds sway if there's some other species for humans to compete against/measure ourselves to. One of the reasons, actually, why some observers posit that there will never be a 'world' government until we conclusively find proof that we're not alone in the universe. Until then, we're likely stuck competing against one another based on national/cultural/ethnic differences.
 
Again, props to you for such magnanimous views, mate ;) . Sadly, 'in-group'/'out-group' psychology posits that you can only really identify with a 'tribe' if there's another tribe to contrast yourself against - i.e, if there's some tribe to compete with for resources and general utility. Otherwise the social glue that sticks people together while negating all their personal/physical differences just isn't there.Thus, the idea of people all uniting into a human 'tribe' as opposed to ethnic/religious/national tribes only holds sway if there's some other species for humans to compete against/measure ourselves to. One of the reasons, actually, why some observers posit that there will never be a 'world' government until we conclusively find proof that we're not alone in the universe. Until then, we're likely stuck competing against one another based on national/cultural/ethnic differences.

yes, but let's not forget we share this planet with many other "tribes" and seem to be in constant war with most of them, maybe we just can't play nice period

the Brits for example have a real fudging hatred for Badgers which drives me mad, wonderful creatures imo
 
yes, but let's not forget we share this planet with many other "tribes" and seem to be in constant war with most of them, maybe we just can't play nice period

the Brits for example have a real fudgeing hatred for Badgers which drives me mad, wonderful creatures imo

:p In our earliest years as a sentient species (with a load of sub-species, ranging from Neanderthals to Homo Sapiens), we actually did see animals as other 'tribes', since we competed for resources with them on a daily basis. It's probably why we actually formed tribes in the first place - to better compete against the animals in a harsh world where survival wasn't assured and life was a constant fight between man and nature. Back then, people were far more spread out, so our chief competitors were animals - ergo, we organized to be able to better compete with them.

For better or worse, we won that war, and now utterly dominate the planet to such an extent that animals have long since stopped being considered a 'tribe' - now they're just objects, to be either preserved or eradicated depending on what plays better with our needs on any given day. As for whether we can play nice or not, it really depends on which view of human nature you take. You can either take Hobbes' view of human nature, which holds that we're all basically antagonistic and in constant competition with each other, and thus need a strong overarching authority (like a government) to keep us from descending into a state of nature where it's every man for himself. This is the view of most realists in International Relations - if you look at states, there's no overarching authority that keeps them all in line, so they're constantly competing with each other for resources and power.

Or, alternately, you can subscribe to Rousseau's view of human nature,which holds that we're all basically empathetic to each other's suffering and were content to live our lives in relative peace and freedom from interaction with one another until the first societies were established and thus made us start competing with each other to survive, making bast*rds out of all of us :p . It's still an overarching question, which an awful lot of philosophers and theorists through the ages have speculated on - can we actually play nice, or are we just perpetual assholes?
 
Call me a cynic, but the lefts political elite aren't defending immigrants from some moralistic stand point, but as voters. The big wars have been fought and won by the left but as people rise through the classes they lose voters. All the left are doing is replacing those votes by buying the immigrants votes.
The SNP are doing exactly the same up here with students.
 
Call me a cynic, but the lefts political elite aren't defending immigrants from some moralistic stand point, but as voters. The big wars have been fought and won by the left but as people rise through the classes they lose voters. All the left are doing is replacing those votes by buying the immigrants votes.
The SNP are doing exactly the same up here with students.

There will always be a lower and an upper class in capitalist systems, though. Fighting for the rights of the lower class in that arrangement was what the left did - it led to all sorts of victories ranging from the right to unionize and secure education for all children to the NHS, the welfare state and the laws governing the workplace that we take for granted today. Over time, I'll grant that people got complacent and started to vote for parties on the right that were up front about cutting all that back to varying degrees, having grown to consider themselves wealthy enough to do away with the need to vote for left-wing parties (I think it was John O'Farrell who phrased it best when he mentioned that shedding the habit of voting Labour was one of the rites of passage that marked the transition from lower to upper middle class) - and perhaps leftist parties around the world then fought for immigrants as a political strategy to maintain their vote share (although, using New Labour and the Liberal Party of Canada as examples, that didn't seem to be the case as much as left-wing parties just pivoting to the center and adopting Left-Lite strategies to appeal to all groups).

However, the divide between lower and upper classes is now extremely prevalent again. And that once again calls for leftist parties that can fight for the more disadvantaged side of that divide as a single unit - no divisions based on gender or race, but on class. Even if you're right about the political expediency of the past few decades, it doesn't really hold sway anymore.

Also, if the SNP are really relying on students as a central plank of their voting base, I'm sorry, but they may be macarons. I was a student - students are the single worst group of people you could ever make the mistake of relying on to form a core part of your vote bank. They're in a transitory stage of their lives - when they're fired up about something, they become the best types of high-enthusiasm voters. However, there is always the extremely dangerous and likely prospect that they'll just drift away or dissolve amidst infighting when you need them most - and that is probably a turn off to the vast majority of political parties, tbh. Although I'm not really clued in on the politics of Scotland - maybe the SNP know something about students in Edinburgh anf Glasgow that makes them confident of seeing them reliably turn out over time, I dunno.
 
Warren Buffett (fifth richest person on the planet?) put it best when he said, "there's a class war going on and my class is winning it." The complacent middle classes are so naïve. They think that the lower orders are just going to keep taking this punishment, in fact they can cop a bit more and nothing will change. Don't believe it for a second. Things could get very ugly, very quickly.
 
Warren Buffett (fifth richest person on the planet?) put it best when he said, "there's a class war going on and my class is winning it." The complacent middle classes are so naïve. They think that the lower orders are just going to keep taking this punishment, in fact they can cop a bit more and nothing will change. Don't believe it for a second. Things could get very ugly, very quickly.

To be fair, though, the middle class is being hit hard as well. It's why I mentioned a lower and an upper class - with globalization in full flow and automation about to ram us all up the ass with unprecedented force, the lower middle class is disintegrating, while the upper middle class is either treading water or succeeding well enough to jump into the category of 'upper' class. This stratification will only intensify over the coming decades. It's both classes that are getting the short end of the wedge in this brave new world, although admittedly the middle classes are the ones most prone to ignoring the needs of the working class below them.
 
Actually it's the lower middle class that have the most to fear and getting it worse in the UK and the EU.
Their jobs aren't being lost to automation, which requires high levels of expensive of investment, their jobs are being lost to China and India who's huge pool of labour is cheap.
Those countries have small start up costs, almost limitless labour and few regulations.
In a loose way I work in the rag trade, we have machines that will complete one part of a garment in one process, but they are expensive, needs maintenance and can break down.
There's videos online and I know reps who have seen in flesh the same process done by a very basic machine and three girls. The Labour is so cheap, the supply virtually endless and there is no downtime.
If a machine breaks down it costs time and money to repair, if a worker is ill, crap or doesn't turn up there's a line of them waiting to take their place.
That's why there's factories lying rusting in the west, not because machines are taking all the jobs.
 
This was the bit that I found most interesting:

The prime minister’s over-riding objective has been to keep her party from repeating its history of splitting 4 times in the past 200 years over global trade — each time being out of power for 15-30 years. The public stance of government is orientated primarily to its own supporters, with industry in particular barely being on the radarscreen — yet ...

The divisions within the cabinet are between the 3 Brexiteers on one side and Philip Hammond/Greg Clark on the other side. The prime minister is rapidly acquiring the reputation of drawing in decisions and details to settle matters herself — which is unlikely to be sustainable. Overall, it appears best to judge who is winning the debate by assuming that the noisiest individuals have lost the intra-government debate and are stirring up external supporters ...

Industry has 2 unpleasant realisations — first, that the government’s priority remains its political survival, not the economy — second, that there will be no clear economic-Brexit strategy any time soon because it is being developed on a case-by-case basis as specific decisions are forced on government.
 
Back