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Grays_1890 said:
BA won’t be allowed to go under as it’s a national legacy Airline, it’s the national carrier so no chance they will let that go.

Thomas cook routes are not as important to the bigger picture as they are more the bucket and spade charter routes which the main players are not so interested in.

With Emirates and Etihad and the big US players so hugely invested in the U.K. I think we will be fine.

Virgin isn’t anywhere near a big player 44 Aircraft compared to 280 with BA and as they are backed by Delta and a New York VC they won’t be bailed out I don’t think, it wouldn’t be as big to the U.K. travel industry as people think losing Virgin, the Caribbean and West Coast US would hurt bad.

A lot of it is noise from Branson, it usually is
Click to expand...
I like having the choice of BA or Virgin to Barbados...sure it must help keep the price competitive?
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
I like having the choice of BA or Virgin to Barbados...sure it must help keep the price competitive?
Click to expand...

oh yeah no doubt that helps but it wouldn’t be enough for the govermsave an airline I don’t think. Routes are subsidised by governments too, I suspect competition would be set again by someone like JetBlue who want a crack at U.K. and could offer a U.K. to Carib route to complement its delve into the corporate market.

The issue is Virgin has not paid tax in two years because of huge loss, that means the Government has to bail out again and double down on a company that shows no chance to paying back a loan based on. It paying its tax.

It’s a Fugazi in terms of airlines in my opinion, Branson isn’t even CEO I don’t think and Delta own 49% so it’s complex.
 
Grays_1890 said:
I think where I struggle with BA is the inconsistency. They were the standard bearer for so long and the thought of a national airline was the champagne era and Concorde etc, issue is when they started to make less money standards slipped and the. Inconsistency stepped up.

All US carriers are trash, AA, Delta etc, GHod awful so BA is a go to on most US routes. Going East though, no chance, Emirates, Etihad, Thai, Cathay, Qatar, Qantas etc, miles better in my experience.

What killed BA slightly was the lowcost war, they spent years selling £200 Returns to European cities claiming a star sarnie and checked luggage was enough where the low costs were £40 and you paid up for what you wanted. Interesting that about 10 years ago O’Leary got it spot on saying people should pay for what they want, not over pay on the things that don’t matter. He was right
Click to expand...

Indeed, I agree re: BA. One thing I will say is consistent are the in flight staff, who I always find really good personally. Yes. I am not a fan of US carriers; United is like the 279 bus! Yes again, Eastern airlines are largely great, and again, Emirates might be the only 31 hour (with connection) flight I was personally unhappy to have end.

You're in the travel game I presume?
 
Grays_1890 said:
BA won’t be allowed to go under as it’s a national legacy Airline, it’s the national carrier so no chance they will let that go.

Thomas cook routes are not as important to the bigger picture as they are more the bucket and spade charter routes which the main players are not so interested in.

With Emirates and Etihad and the big US players so hugely invested in the U.K. I think we will be fine.

Virgin isn’t anywhere near a big player 44 Aircraft compared to 280 with BA and as they are backed by Delta and a New York VC they won’t be bailed out I don’t think, it wouldn’t be as big to the U.K. travel industry as people think losing Virgin, the Caribbean and West Coast US would hurt bad.

A lot of it is noise from Branson, it usually is
Click to expand...

IAG have 10 billion in the bank and have other backers as well - so the need for a loan isn’t there.

BA won’t do anywhere near as many fights.

Delta is another reason they won’t be able to go - connections all over the states.

As for the Thomas Cook routes, we already seen prices increase due to less seats to Orlando etc - so people will care if the flights have gone up x amount.

From a friend at BA - long read - but explains the situation there as well.



Notes from A350 Teams meeting with Jason M earlier today. (PS. Don’t try and record it! He wasn’t happy when someone did )

Business won’t recover to 2019 levels ever. Likely to be 80% max within 3-5 years. Predicted very low travel numbers in next 18 months. Travel restrictions aren’t likely to change until a vaccine is available.

We now have a significant MPE surplus across business. Discussions taking place with unions about that. Preserving jobs is key but stated realistically that may not be possible everywhere.

4 engine aircraft will return but definitely not in the numbers of 2019. A380 and 744 will be targeted towards specific routes eg A380 JNB, But opportunities limited. Slow come back late 2020 / early 2021.

Actively looking at training A380 pilots quickly on A350.

787 and 777 will be used more as engine deals on these with RR make them cheaper to operate at the moment.

A350 could be replacements for 777-200 as they leave making even bigger A350 fleet. 777-9 probably too big now so looking at more A350s and/or 787-9/10. JM thinks A350 will win out for various reasons, possibly leading to phasing out of First.

Possible move of LGW LH routes to LHR to use slots freed up by approx 20% reduction in our overall capacity.

LGW SH still due to get around 30 737MAX aircraft.
Mostly, but not all the same.
He was very tinkled off about the recording which I think was finger trouble.
The 380 seemed to form part of the return and no fleets are to be lost entirely (ish). There are advantages and disadvantages to getting 380-350-380. Unless there is a dual rating (which was outside the scope of the conversation today and there is a mixed fleet flying guideline set by EASA and Airbus ODR tables) then the footprint for each way conversion is actually 1 month all inclusive. This is shorter than the full rating but still has a significant lag time to get folk off the 350-380 as it comes back so there seemed to be a reluctance to full all 350 slots worth 380 bodies.
The decision on which aircraft are currently flying is deeper than just capacity, it’s about the engine maintainable deals, hence the 787.

The info about the new aircraft is as I remember, but with some differences. I don;t remember him saying the 350 was leading the process but that it was between the 350 and 787.

He’s confident that the airline (and all IAG airlines) will survive but will be deeply in debt at the end of the process. Definitely felt like he was putting the lube on the table ready for round two. The 80% Of the “Old BA” was clear but not the timescale or where the changes would be made, especially as he said there was a need to keep hold of all slots and that extending the slot profile was not being considered, but swapping slot pairs may be. LGW will look very different. He said the 737 Max was not a political game but a definite but more like 30 to BA...LGW.I dont recall him saying anything about a one term plan to remove LH from LGW though. He is very keen to show “leadership” and say Alex is dong lots behind the scenes, who he is encouraging to be more “visible”. They are aware of the feeling of pilots to management following last year and are not intent on antagonising for the sake of it. We unfortunately are fully hedged so can’t are use of the low price. They are also very aware that returning to any type of operation requires that we trust that our workplace is safe. That goes for all staff and pax, end to end, there is however no plan to block off seats...they don’t see capacity being strong enough to need that anyway.
I’m sure there will be more meat on the bones after your meeting tomorrow.
 
Grays_1890 said:
oh yeah no doubt that helps but it wouldn’t be enough for the govermsave an airline I don’t think. Routes are subsidised by governments too, I suspect competition would be set again by someone like JetBlue who want a crack at U.K. and could offer a U.K. to Carib route to complement its delve into the corporate market.

The issue is Virgin has not paid tax in two years because of huge loss, that means the Government has to bail out again and double down on a company that shows no chance to paying back a loan based on. It paying its tax.

It’s a Fugazi in terms of airlines in my opinion, Branson isn’t even CEO I don’t think and Delta own 49% so it’s complex.
Click to expand...


No airlines are expanding - most airlines will be start ups again.

Gatwick and Heathrow are seriously concerned.
 
Legohamster said:
IAG have 10 billion in the bank and have other backers as well - so the need for a loan isn’t there.

BA won’t do anywhere near as many fights.

Delta is another reason they won’t be able to go - connections all over the states.

As for the Thomas Cook routes, we already seen prices increase due to less seats to Orlando etc - so people will care if the flights have gone up x amount.

From a friend at BA - long read - but explains the situation there as well.



Notes from A350 Teams meeting with Jason M earlier today. (PS. Don’t try and record it! He wasn’t happy when someone did )

Business won’t recover to 2019 levels ever. Likely to be 80% max within 3-5 years. Predicted very low travel numbers in next 18 months. Travel restrictions aren’t likely to change until a vaccine is available.

We now have a significant MPE surplus across business. Discussions taking place with unions about that. Preserving jobs is key but stated realistically that may not be possible everywhere.

4 engine aircraft will return but definitely not in the numbers of 2019. A380 and 744 will be targeted towards specific routes eg A380 JNB, But opportunities limited. Slow come back late 2020 / early 2021.

Actively looking at training A380 pilots quickly on A350.

787 and 777 will be used more as engine deals on these with RR make them cheaper to operate at the moment.

A350 could be replacements for 777-200 as they leave making even bigger A350 fleet. 777-9 probably too big now so looking at more A350s and/or 787-9/10. JM thinks A350 will win out for various reasons, possibly leading to phasing out of First.

Possible move of LGW LH routes to LHR to use slots freed up by approx 20% reduction in our overall capacity.

LGW SH still due to get around 30 737MAX aircraft.
Mostly, but not all the same.
He was very tinkled off about the recording which I think was finger trouble.
The 380 seemed to form part of the return and no fleets are to be lost entirely (ish). There are advantages and disadvantages to getting 380-350-380. Unless there is a dual rating (which was outside the scope of the conversation today and there is a mixed fleet flying guideline set by EASA and Airbus ODR tables) then the footprint for each way conversion is actually 1 month all inclusive. This is shorter than the full rating but still has a significant lag time to get folk off the 350-380 as it comes back so there seemed to be a reluctance to full all 350 slots worth 380 bodies.
The decision on which aircraft are currently flying is deeper than just capacity, it’s about the engine maintainable deals, hence the 787.

The info about the new aircraft is as I remember, but with some differences. I don;t remember him saying the 350 was leading the process but that it was between the 350 and 787.

He’s confident that the airline (and all IAG airlines) will survive but will be deeply in debt at the end of the process. Definitely felt like he was putting the lube on the table ready for round two. The 80% Of the “Old BA” was clear but not the timescale or where the changes would be made, especially as he said there was a need to keep hold of all slots and that extending the slot profile was not being considered, but swapping slot pairs may be. LGW will look very different. He said the 737 Max was not a political game but a definite but more like 30 to BA...LGW.I dont recall him saying anything about a one term plan to remove LH from LGW though. He is very keen to show “leadership” and say Alex is dong lots behind the scenes, who he is encouraging to be more “visible”. They are aware of the feeling of pilots to management following last year and are not intent on antagonising for the sake of it. We unfortunately are fully hedged so can’t are use of the low price. They are also very aware that returning to any type of operation requires that we trust that our workplace is safe. That goes for all staff and pax, end to end, there is however no plan to block off seats...they don’t see capacity being strong enough to need that anyway.
I’m sure there will be more meat on the bones after your meeting tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Very interesting, thanks.
 
thfcsteff said:
Indeed, I agree re: BA. One thing I will say is consistent are the in flight staff, who I always find really good personally. Yes. I am not a fan of US carriers; United is like the 279 bus! Yes again, Eastern airlines are largely great, and again, Emirates might be the only 31 hour (with connection) flight I was personally unhappy to have end.

You're in the travel game I presume?
Click to expand...

Yeh I work for a Travel Marketing company spent 20+ years in the game. I was based in Sharm during the Thomas Cook boom period doing hotel contracts etc.

It’s a great industry, the salaries are poor in the nut and bolts end of the industry which is customer focused, in my side now the monies a lot better.

Working with travel has lots of perks like the upgrades, free stays, free trips, problem is the margins have been so small now for so long a lot of its dangling on a thread.

Companies like Virgin and Virgin Holidays have been run horrendously for years, bleeding out money, their staff culture is good and their staff defend the place but they don’t see a lot of what goes on. It’s a shame as it should be one of the true go to companies and despite people thinking it is it isn’t anymore. That’s the strength of RBs PR
 
Legohamster said:
No airlines are expanding - most airlines will be start ups again.

Gatwick and Heathrow are seriously concerned.
Click to expand...

Maybe not now but Airlines are expanding. WestJet broke the Air Canada monopoly two years ago which was huge and they operate into Gatwick, was a huge move for the industry.

Jet Blue have been talking about it for ages
 
Legohamster said:
IAG have 10 billion in the bank and have other backers as well - so the need for a loan isn’t there.

BA won’t do anywhere near as many fights.

Delta is another reason they won’t be able to go - connections all over the states.

As for the Thomas Cook routes, we already seen prices increase due to less seats to Orlando etc - so people will care if the flights have gone up x amount.

From a friend at BA - long read - but explains the situation there as well.



Notes from A350 Teams meeting with Jason M earlier today. (PS. Don’t try and record it! He wasn’t happy when someone did )

Business won’t recover to 2019 levels ever. Likely to be 80% max within 3-5 years. Predicted very low travel numbers in next 18 months. Travel restrictions aren’t likely to change until a vaccine is available.

We now have a significant MPE surplus across business. Discussions taking place with unions about that. Preserving jobs is key but stated realistically that may not be possible everywhere.

4 engine aircraft will return but definitely not in the numbers of 2019. A380 and 744 will be targeted towards specific routes eg A380 JNB, But opportunities limited. Slow come back late 2020 / early 2021.

Actively looking at training A380 pilots quickly on A350.

787 and 777 will be used more as engine deals on these with RR make them cheaper to operate at the moment.

A350 could be replacements for 777-200 as they leave making even bigger A350 fleet. 777-9 probably too big now so looking at more A350s and/or 787-9/10. JM thinks A350 will win out for various reasons, possibly leading to phasing out of First.

Possible move of LGW LH routes to LHR to use slots freed up by approx 20% reduction in our overall capacity.

LGW SH still due to get around 30 737MAX aircraft.
Mostly, but not all the same.
He was very tinkled off about the recording which I think was finger trouble.
The 380 seemed to form part of the return and no fleets are to be lost entirely (ish). There are advantages and disadvantages to getting 380-350-380. Unless there is a dual rating (which was outside the scope of the conversation today and there is a mixed fleet flying guideline set by EASA and Airbus ODR tables) then the footprint for each way conversion is actually 1 month all inclusive. This is shorter than the full rating but still has a significant lag time to get folk off the 350-380 as it comes back so there seemed to be a reluctance to full all 350 slots worth 380 bodies.
The decision on which aircraft are currently flying is deeper than just capacity, it’s about the engine maintainable deals, hence the 787.

The info about the new aircraft is as I remember, but with some differences. I don;t remember him saying the 350 was leading the process but that it was between the 350 and 787.

He’s confident that the airline (and all IAG airlines) will survive but will be deeply in debt at the end of the process. Definitely felt like he was putting the lube on the table ready for round two. The 80% Of the “Old BA” was clear but not the timescale or where the changes would be made, especially as he said there was a need to keep hold of all slots and that extending the slot profile was not being considered, but swapping slot pairs may be. LGW will look very different. He said the 737 Max was not a political game but a definite but more like 30 to BA...LGW.I dont recall him saying anything about a one term plan to remove LH from LGW though. He is very keen to show “leadership” and say Alex is dong lots behind the scenes, who he is encouraging to be more “visible”. They are aware of the feeling of pilots to management following last year and are not intent on antagonising for the sake of it. We unfortunately are fully hedged so can’t are use of the low price. They are also very aware that returning to any type of operation requires that we trust that our workplace is safe. That goes for all staff and pax, end to end, there is however no plan to block off seats...they don’t see capacity being strong enough to need that anyway.
I’m sure there will be more meat on the bones after your meeting tomorrow.
Click to expand...

The loss of Thomas Cook as airlift is minimal as they didn’t fly to many mainline destinations. They chartered to places like Fueteventura and Sharm or Hurghahda where they take huge hotel allocations or had their own hotels and filled their planes that way.

The loss of their airlift to Orlando isn’t hurting the industry that much for it to be an issue.

It’s not a like for like to compare A Thomas Cook Charter cost to flying one of the major scheduled airlines, as much as I dislike BA I would fly them every day over a charter.

End of the day if another package holiday companies feel the need to open an extra route to an Orlando they will because the value for them is in the lucrative override deals with the hotels for putting heads on beds.
 
Legohamster said:
IAG have 10 billion in the bank and have other backers as well - so the need for a loan isn’t there.

BA won’t do anywhere near as many fights.

Delta is another reason they won’t be able to go - connections all over the states.

As for the Thomas Cook routes, we already seen prices increase due to less seats to Orlando etc - so people will care if the flights have gone up x amount.

From a friend at BA - long read - but explains the situation there as well.



Notes from A350 Teams meeting with Jason M earlier today. (PS. Don’t try and record it! He wasn’t happy when someone did )

Business won’t recover to 2019 levels ever. Likely to be 80% max within 3-5 years. Predicted very low travel numbers in next 18 months. Travel restrictions aren’t likely to change until a vaccine is available.

We now have a significant MPE surplus across business. Discussions taking place with unions about that. Preserving jobs is key but stated realistically that may not be possible everywhere.

4 engine aircraft will return but definitely not in the numbers of 2019. A380 and 744 will be targeted towards specific routes eg A380 JNB, But opportunities limited. Slow come back late 2020 / early 2021.

Actively looking at training A380 pilots quickly on A350.

787 and 777 will be used more as engine deals on these with RR make them cheaper to operate at the moment.

A350 could be replacements for 777-200 as they leave making even bigger A350 fleet. 777-9 probably too big now so looking at more A350s and/or 787-9/10. JM thinks A350 will win out for various reasons, possibly leading to phasing out of First.

Possible move of LGW LH routes to LHR to use slots freed up by approx 20% reduction in our overall capacity.

LGW SH still due to get around 30 737MAX aircraft.
Mostly, but not all the same.
He was very tinkled off about the recording which I think was finger trouble.
The 380 seemed to form part of the return and no fleets are to be lost entirely (ish). There are advantages and disadvantages to getting 380-350-380. Unless there is a dual rating (which was outside the scope of the conversation today and there is a mixed fleet flying guideline set by EASA and Airbus ODR tables) then the footprint for each way conversion is actually 1 month all inclusive. This is shorter than the full rating but still has a significant lag time to get folk off the 350-380 as it comes back so there seemed to be a reluctance to full all 350 slots worth 380 bodies.
The decision on which aircraft are currently flying is deeper than just capacity, it’s about the engine maintainable deals, hence the 787.

The info about the new aircraft is as I remember, but with some differences. I don;t remember him saying the 350 was leading the process but that it was between the 350 and 787.

He’s confident that the airline (and all IAG airlines) will survive but will be deeply in debt at the end of the process. Definitely felt like he was putting the lube on the table ready for round two. The 80% Of the “Old BA” was clear but not the timescale or where the changes would be made, especially as he said there was a need to keep hold of all slots and that extending the slot profile was not being considered, but swapping slot pairs may be. LGW will look very different. He said the 737 Max was not a political game but a definite but more like 30 to BA...LGW.I dont recall him saying anything about a one term plan to remove LH from LGW though. He is very keen to show “leadership” and say Alex is dong lots behind the scenes, who he is encouraging to be more “visible”. They are aware of the feeling of pilots to management following last year and are not intent on antagonising for the sake of it. We unfortunately are fully hedged so can’t are use of the low price. They are also very aware that returning to any type of operation requires that we trust that our workplace is safe. That goes for all staff and pax, end to end, there is however no plan to block off seats...they don’t see capacity being strong enough to need that anyway.
I’m sure there will be more meat on the bones after your meeting tomorrow.
Click to expand...
I get the distinct impression that LH out of LGW has been on the cards for removal for some time now. Reading the above doesn't convince me otherwise for some reason - maybe that's just in the voice of whoever took the notes.
 
Grays_1890 said:
The loss of Thomas Cook as airlift is minimal as they didn’t fly to many mainline destinations. They chartered to places like Fueteventura and Sharm or Hurghahda where they take huge hotel allocations or had their own hotels and filled their planes that way.

The loss of their airlift to Orlando isn’t hurting the industry that much for it to be an issue.

It’s not a like for like to compare A Thomas Cook Charter cost to flying one of the major scheduled airlines, as much as I dislike BA I would fly them every day over a charter.

End of the day if another package holiday companies feel the need to open an extra route to an Orlando they will because the value for them is in the lucrative override deals with the hotels for putting heads on beds.
Click to expand...

Virgin Holidays made 20 million last year, that’s why most the job cuts being talked about are at the airline.
 
scaramanga said:
I get the distinct impression that LH out of LGW has been on the cards for removal for some time now. Reading the above doesn't convince me otherwise for some reason - maybe that's just in the voice of whoever took the notes.
Click to expand...

No so sure - they spent a lot of money to get the South Terminal at LGW and all the works - I think they paid Virgin £10million and costs to build the clubhouse etc in the south terminal just to move


I appreciate what I posted isn’t fact - could be bias etc - but I found it interesting as it shows the mindset of the airlines.

Also interesting is that the cuts are at BA and not in Spain or Dublin which backs up the pilots view.
 
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