Coronavirus

[thfcsteff]

We had this question posed over terrorism in the 80s. I'm sure you were around in London when bomb threats were the norm. As a nation our considered response was "fudge this, I'm off to the pub."

Given the choice between a minor increase in my safety and fundamental changes to how I go about my life, I prefer to live my life.

Indeed, I remember the bombings well. My Granny (Dublin born but not in any way an IRA sympathizer) was 2 mins from Harrods when it was bombed. I think a key, key difference back then was the flow of information. Put simply, most people shared their info via the pub and in response to the regular evening news. Just the one or two broadcasts, not 10,000 fudging jabberheads all rabbiting on and on and on with a thousand points of fear mongering. It is really very very hard to determine any sensible information right now IMO. I, like everyone, am observing social distancing and remaining practical in my compliance. Common sense counts for an awful lot IMO. The issue becomes when said-common sense is infiltrated by a thousand points of discussion with no real knowledge. As has oft been said, the world is now full of disease experts!

 

[thfcsteff]

Last year, a return trip for the extended family in premium economy (I'm not paying business class for kids) was about £9K with Norwegian. BA was around £12.5k from memory.

Those same flights on BA are currently £18k.

First of all, I agree on your travel planning. Secondly, that pricing is absurd. It seems utterly counter-intuitive to getting customers back long-term. It further does not pan out with fuel prices, which I presume will remain lower even at the turn of the year (though again, I am no expert in the field so welcome a knowledgeable correction).

 

[Legohamster]

Last year, a return trip for the extended family in premium economy (I'm not paying business class for kids) was about £9K with Norwegian. BA was around £12.5k from memory.

Those same flights on BA are currently £18k.

I’ve not been in the office for a month so I can’t back it up

But I imagine it’s because capacity is getting full

People are re-booking and if airlines go it will mean they can charge what they want till close to
Departure.

BA won’t go under so they can get away with it

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Can I ask (and I am not being a troll) is this entire conversation based upon what should've happenED a couple of months ago? I think there are many lessons which have been learned in all corners of the world personally, further I have to ponder whether it is really worth dissecting the merits of an action months ago which most people would agree was perhaps not the wisest with regards to allowing Italian and Spanish fans to travel as the covid19 outbreak was racing. In mitigation of those errors of judgement, if anyone can show me a suite of major governments/nations that were not fudging up in some way (beyond Denmark and California - let's count it as a nation state ) then I'm all eyes.

Think you're missing the big point. Spursmeup...f.cks you up, winds you up, trolls you up, twists you up, and finally makes you give up.

 

[thfcsteff]

Yeh of course there is slight hindsight as I’m not running a country or football although if you look at the Prem thread I’ve called for the league to be expunged for over a month.

The point is and the main point is, allowing Barca to visit Naples when all domestic games were played behind closed doors to avoid spread isn’t a question of hindsight it’s a case of “how”

Surely to allow that just wipes out the work you are trying to achieve? It wasn’t like Italy were not aware or trying to dampen the spread, they were.

I genuinely believe there were huge suspensions of logic and belief. It becomes a case of "it couldn't be that bad" as you think a couple of thousand football supporters could not possibly be such virulent vectors, even though the evidence was stacking up that it absolutely would've been. I'd put it down to "elephant in the room" behavior at levels we might not have expected. Let's face it, the night before British lockdown, people were literally crowding into pubs for one last "sesh" which is equally illogical when stacked with the facts. There's been a lot of "never seen before" behaviors in reaction to never seen before conditions IMO.

 

[thfcsteff]

Think you're missing the big point. Spursmeup...f.cks you up, winds you up, trolls you up, twists you up, and finally makes you give up.

I have largely floated around the conversation in fairness.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Ryanair doesn’t have the tech to offer that part of the reason they are low cost and it also needs more sophisticated software in order to determine which refunds are genuine and which are not.

Having the system I suggest would help you be low cost. It's hardly high level tech.

They'll be flying bi-planes next.

 

[Legohamster]

Indeed, I remember the bombings well. My Granny (Dublin born but not in any way an IRA sympathizer) was 2 mins from Harrods when it was bombed. I think a key, key difference back then was the flow of information. Put simply, most people shared their info via the pub and in response to the regular evening news. Just the one or two broadcasts, not 10,000 fudging jabberheads all rabbiting on and on and on with a thousand points of fear mongering. It is really very very hard to determine any sensible information right now IMO. I, like everyone, am observing social distancing and remaining practical in my compliance. Common sense counts for an awful lot IMO. The issue becomes when said-common sense is infiltrated by a thousand points of discussion with no real knowledge. As has oft been said, the world is now full of disease experts!

I was thinking about this today actually

The majority of the nation is now in a blind panic over this, what would have been the reaction without social media and misleading rubbish ?

Social media was in its infancy when swine flu hit, I wonder if we would have seen this reaction back then if Twitter was around.

Social media will take down the economy with miss represented stats/lies and shared panic.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

They should be discounting flights for next year - that would bring some cash in now.

I see BA have extended their booking window so that US flights next Easter are already available but many of the others haven't.

easyJet released their winter programme a month or so ago and all flights were £25 or 25 euros

 

[Grays_1890]

I genuinely believe there were huge suspensions of logic and belief. It becomes a case of "it couldn't be that bad" as you think a couple of thousand football supporters could not possibly be such virulent vectors, even though the evidence was stacking up that it absolutely would've been. I'd put it down to "elephant in the room" behavior at levels we might not have expected. Let's face it, the night before British lockdown, people were literally crowding into pubs for one last "sesh" which is equally illogical when stacked with the facts. There's been a lot of "never seen before" behaviors in reaction to never seen before conditions IMO.

yeh of course but we were allowed in pubs haha.

For me it’s just hugely odd, they obviously closed the domestic gates for a reason, to allow Napoli to play at home in a full stadium against another side from a country with issues contradicts the plan in place, that’s not them not knowing the outcome otherwise tbh eh wouldn’t have locked out the domestic games??

Made stranger as Europa games were postponed??

 

[Grays_1890]

Having the system I suggest would help you be low cost. It's hardly high level tech.

They'll be flying bi-planes next.

No they have a basic system, I work in travel.

It’s one of the reasons they can’t be sold by other companies with tech like other companies can like with Amadeus etc.

Every pounds a prisoner

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Last year, a return trip for the extended family in premium economy (I'm not paying business class for kids) was about £9K with Norwegian. BA was around £12.5k from memory.

Those same flights on BA are currently £18k.

BA really pushed people to change dates or accept the voucher....so maybe that has filled alot of future capacity, so it looks quite a healthy from a distance (and propping prices) But of course they could just be kicking the can down the road?

 

[Grays_1890]

BA really pushed people to change dates or accept the voucher....so maybe that has filled alot of future capacity, so it looks quite a healthy from a distance (and propping prices) But of course they could just be kicking the can down the road?

yeh the thing with BA is they have a strangely loyal following for being a poor legacy airline. Also the nature of their business is huge corporate travel so likely their Q4 onwards is jammed up and like you say people taking deferral to later days. The lead time to a booking is longer too, unlike lowcost

 

[scaramanga]

I’ve not been in the office for a month so I can’t back it up

But I imagine it’s because capacity is getting full

People are re-booking and if airlines go it will mean they can charge what they want till close to
Departure.

BA won’t go under so they can get away with it

That makes a lot of sense, thanks.

 

[Legohamster]

That makes a lot of sense, thanks.

Added to that Thomas Cook routes haven’t been replaced, so there was already a shortage.

Which is why I think Virgin will end up with a loan.

There will be a BA monopoly and Brexit needs UK airlines for trade etc.

My simplistic prediction is the states will carry on opening up because of the election and unemployment rate and we will follow as we want a deal with them.

I also think millions won’t be put off by travel and will go away what ever.

 

[Legohamster]

That makes a lot of sense, thanks.

Added to that Thomas Cook routes haven’t been replaced, so there was already a shortage.

Which is why I think Virgin will end up with a loan.

There will be a BA monopoly and Brexit needs UK airlines for trade etc.

My simplistic prediction is the states will carry on opening up because of the election and unemployment rate and we will follow as we want a deal with them.

I also think millions won’t be put off by travel and will go away what ever.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

We had this question posed over terrorism in the 80s. I'm sure you were around in London when bomb threats were the norm. As a nation our considered response was "fudge this, I'm off to the pub."

Given the choice between a minor increase in my safety and fundamental changes to how I go about my life, I prefer to live my life.

Thats actually a good point.

 

[Grays_1890]

Added to that Thomas Cook routes haven’t been replaced, so there was already a shortage.

Which is why I think Virgin will end up with a loan.

There will be a BA monopoly and Brexit needs UK airlines for trade etc.

My simplistic prediction is the states will carry on opening up because of the election and unemployment rate and we will follow as we want a deal with them.

I also think millions won’t be put off by travel and will go away what ever.

BA won’t be allowed to go under as it’s a national legacy Airline, it’s the national carrier so no chance they will let that go.

Thomas cook routes are not as important to the bigger picture as they are more the bucket and spade charter routes which the main players are not so interested in.

With Emirates and Etihad and the big US players so hugely invested in the U.K. I think we will be fine.

Virgin isn’t anywhere near a big player 44 Aircraft compared to 280 with BA and as they are backed by Delta and a New York VC they won’t be bailed out I don’t think, it wouldn’t be as big to the U.K. travel industry as people think losing Virgin, the Caribbean and West Coast US would hurt bad.

A lot of it is noise from Branson, it usually is

 

[thfcsteff]

yeh the thing with BA is they have a strangely loyal following for being a poor legacy airline. Also the nature of their business is huge corporate travel so likely their Q4 onwards is jammed up and like you say people taking deferral to later days. The lead time to a booking is longer too, unlike lowcost

Funny you should say that as I firmly count in that number, yet I can safely say (even though not every trip I make is business class -probably 50/50 with the rest PE and coach) their business seat does not bear comparison with the likes of even American (unless upstairs on the Dreamliner when it is decent). Compared to Emirates they all pale IMO. Yet curiously, I find BA's coach seat better than most other airlines! Bizarre!

 

[Grays_1890]

Funny you should say that as I firmly count in that number, yet I can safely say (even though not every trip I make is business class -probably 50/50 with the rest PE and coach) their business seat does not bear comparison with the likes of even American (unless upstairs on the Dreamliner when it is decent). Compared to Emirates they all pale IMO. Yet curiously, I find BA's coach seat better than most other airlines! Bizarre!

I think where I struggle with BA is the inconsistency. They were the standard bearer for so long and the thought of a national airline was the champagne era and Concorde etc, issue is when they started to make less money standards slipped and the. Inconsistency stepped up.

All US carriers are trash, AA, Delta etc, GHod awful so BA is a go to on most US routes. Going East though, no chance, Emirates, Etihad, Thai, Cathay, Qatar, Qantas etc, miles better in my experience.

What killed BA slightly was the lowcost war, they spent years selling £200 Returns to European cities claiming a star sarnie and checked luggage was enough where the low costs were £40 and you paid up for what you wanted. Interesting that about 10 years ago O’Leary got it spot on saying people should pay for what they want, not over pay on the things that don’t matter. He was right