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Serious relegation fears

GPRD81 said:
Its simply not fair to diminish Leicester by pointing to luck......it's not a fashionable statement in a time when there are stats and everything in football can be objectified by numbers, like all other walks of life, is determined by random elements of luck e.g. decisions go your way, the bounce of the ball (think Kane's deflected shot onto the bar against Leicester), injuries (or lack of them). In fact in one of the recent football statistical analysis books (think its The Number Game) they actually identify that luck/random events accounts for about up to 33% of outcome.

That said I saw a report yesterday which showed how we have benefitted from the highest number of opposition shots that have hit the woodwork and therefore not scored (I know the woodwork is technically off-target!) and that if the woodwork was part of the goal we would have 10 points less than we do.

Think about Son's goal at Watford that was offside, that Dier should have had a second yellow card against the Goons, the penalty at Emirates Marketing Project.....if someone said we were 'lucky' to be second (as many of you are claiming Leicester are lucky) we wouldn't be having it.

There has never been a case that the team who win the league are not the best team in it. If Leicester win they'll have deserved it.
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Good post, and the bolded bit would be a case of selective blindness by some fans who are full of sour grapes.
 
paxtonwolf said:
It should not happen by a long chalk, but anybody starting to get the slightest feeling that City and Liverpool are going to fluke their ways to nicking the CL and EL?

There looks to be too many good teams left in the CL, but I thought that 4 years ago too. You would like to think Liverpool can go and win the EL, but..if we do end up in
4th place I think we all know what is likely to happen!
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It's always going to be at the back of the mind but one thing I believe we can all take heart from this time round is the collective will-power and strength of character this team is showing week by week. It may not be enough to see us to the title but it sure looks strong enough to ensure that what happens elsewhere is rendered irrelevant when it comes to automatic CL qualification.
 
parklane1 said:
Good post, and the bolded bit would be a case of selective blindness by some fans who are full of sour grapes.
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But it works both ways with the example she quoted

We have had plenty of lucky decisions and plenty of bad ones

What I would say is that Leicester haven't had many bad ones that I can remember - but I don't watch them much so my point of reference is minimal

The key message is that we just need to crack on with our games as we cant influence there's or anyone else's
 
paxtonwolf said:
It should not happen by a long chalk, but anybody starting to get the slightest feeling that City and Liverpool are going to fluke their ways to nicking the CL and EL?

There looks to be too many good teams left in the CL, but I thought that 4 years ago too. You would like to think Liverpool can't go and win the EL, but..if we do end up in
4th place I think we all know what is likely to happen!
Click to expand...

If City & Liverpool both win the CL and EL respectively both would have to finish outside the top 4 for us to miss out. City finishing below 4th is possible, as is Liverpool winning the Europa, but I don't think City will win the Champions League. I believe Zlatan will dispose of them in the next fixture.

Dream scenario for us would be we miraculously win the title, Arsenal finish 4th and then City & Liverpool win the CL and EL. That would be perfect.
 
Craig_J said:
If City & Liverpool both win the CL and EL respectively both would have to finish outside the top 4 for us to miss out. City finishing below 4th is possible, as is Liverpool winning the Europa, but I don't think City will win the Champions League. I believe Zlatan will dispose of them in the next fixture.

Dream scenario for us would be we miraculously win the title, Arsenal finish 18th and City & Liverpool win nothing. That would be perfect.
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Fixed...
 
Craig_J said:
If City & Liverpool both win the CL and EL respectively both would have to finish outside the top 4 for us to miss out. City finishing below 4th is possible, as is Liverpool winning the Europa, but I don't think City will win the Champions League. I believe Zlatan will dispose of them in the next fixture.

Dream scenario for us would be we miraculously win the title, Arsenal finish 4th and then City & Liverpool win the CL and EL. That would be perfect.
Click to expand...
I think I'd prefer West Ham to pip them to 4th and then go out in the qualifier. And Liverpool and City to win squat.
Yes, I am a begrudging fudger.
 
paxtonwolf said:
It should not happen by a long chalk, but anybody starting to get the slightest feeling that City and Liverpool are going to fluke their ways to nicking the CL and EL?

There looks to be too many good teams left in the CL, but I thought that 4 years ago too. You would like to think Liverpool can't go and win the EL, but..if we do end up in
4th place I think we all know what is likely to happen!
Click to expand...
Dortmund is going to show up at Anfield. There is no way Pool doesn't concede and them putting at least a couple past Dortmund is not likely. 3-1 Dortmund imv.
 
paxtonwolf said:
It should not happen by a long chalk, but anybody starting to get the slightest feeling that City and Liverpool are going to fluke their ways to nicking the CL and EL?

There looks to be too many good teams left in the CL, but I thought that 4 years ago too. You would like to think Liverpool can't go and win the EL, but..if we do end up in
4th place I think we all know what is likely to happen!
Click to expand...

Believe me, I have thought about it. It would only happen to Spurs.
 
GPRD81 said:
Its simply not fair to diminish Leicester by pointing to luck......it's not a fashionable statement in a time when there are stats and everything in football can be objectified by numbers, like all other walks of life, is determined by random elements of luck e.g. decisions go your way, the bounce of the ball (think Kane's deflected shot onto the bar against Leicester), injuries (or lack of them). In fact in one of the recent football statistical analysis books (think its The Number Game) they actually identify that luck/random events accounts for about up to 33% of outcome.

That said I saw a report yesterday which showed how we have benefitted from the highest number of opposition shots that have hit the woodwork and therefore not scored (I know the woodwork is technically off-target!) and that if the woodwork was part of the goal we would have 10 points less than we do.

Think about Son's goal at Watford that was offside, that Dier should have had a second yellow card against the Goons, the penalty at Emirates Marketing Project.....if someone said we were 'lucky' to be second (as many of you are claiming Leicester are lucky) we wouldn't be having it.

There has never been a case that the team who win the league are not the best team in it. If Leicester win they'll have deserved it.
Click to expand...

Good post. Especially the bolded bit. People don't like to bring up the lucky breaks we have caught as you alluded to. I don't think we've had as many as Leicester but all the same, they have been the most consistent team.
 
Rorschach said:
I think I'd prefer West Ham to pip them to 4th and then go out in the qualifier. And Liverpool and City to win squat.
Yes, I am a begrudging fudgeer.
Click to expand...

I would prefer West Ham in the purgatory league, but to actually get through the qualifiers this time. They did themselves a favour in terms of the league by getting knocked out early and they aren't going to win it next year should they qualify.
 
GPRD81 said:
Its simply not fair to diminish Leicester by pointing to luck......it's not a fashionable statement in a time when there are stats and everything in football can be objectified by numbers, like all other walks of life, is determined by random elements of luck e.g. decisions go your way, the bounce of the ball (think Kane's deflected shot onto the bar against Leicester), injuries (or lack of them). In fact in one of the recent football statistical analysis books (think its The Number Game) they actually identify that luck/random events accounts for about up to 33% of outcome.
Click to expand...

You're right, luck is a huge factor in sports with low scores like football. That luck (on the whole) tends to be fairly even handed, except with Leicester this season - they have had a remarkable streak of it that will probably not happen again in a generation.

GPRD81 said:
That said I saw a report yesterday which showed how we have benefitted from the highest number of opposition shots that have hit the woodwork and therefore not scored (I know the woodwork is technically off-target!) and that if the woodwork was part of the goal we would have 10 points less than we do.
Click to expand...
That's not really an accurate measurement of luck. What you can do, is look at the expected number of opposition goals scored based on where we allow shots from and what type of shots they are. When measured objectively, we're quite good at restricting the opposition to low-return chances. We're about where we should be in terms of goals conceded vs defensive performance.

GPRD81 said:
Think about Son's goal at Watford that was offside, that Dier should have had a second yellow card against the Goons, the penalty at Emirates Marketing Project.....if someone said we were 'lucky' to be second (as many of you are claiming Leicester are lucky) we wouldn't be having it.
Click to expand...
There are at least as many things that have gone against us in the season. When you compare it to Leicester's lack of injuries, suspensions, fouls against, cards for nasty tackles, cards for dives, etc. it becomes very clear that one of the two sides simply hasn't had any bad unrepeatable events all season.

GPRD81 said:
There has never been a case that the team who win the league are not the best team in it. If Leicester win they'll have deserved it.
Click to expand...
Hasn't there? I can't think of one off of the top of my head, but I bet there's been three or four since the league's inception. Seeing as Leicester are showing once in a generation levels of luck, you wouldn't expect this to have happened more than a few times since football began.
 
GPRD81 said:
Its simply not fair to diminish Leicester by pointing to luck......it's not a fashionable statement in a time when there are stats and everything in football can be objectified by numbers, like all other walks of life, is determined by random elements of luck e.g. decisions go your way, the bounce of the ball (think Kane's deflected shot onto the bar against Leicester), injuries (or lack of them). In fact in one of the recent football statistical analysis books (think its The Number Game) they actually identify that luck/random events accounts for about up to 33% of outcome.

That said I saw a report yesterday which showed how we have benefitted from the highest number of opposition shots that have hit the woodwork and therefore not scored (I know the woodwork is technically off-target!) and that if the woodwork was part of the goal we would have 10 points less than we do.

Think about Son's goal at Watford that was offside, that Dier should have had a second yellow card against the Goons, the penalty at Emirates Marketing Project.....if someone said we were 'lucky' to be second (as many of you are claiming Leicester are lucky) we wouldn't be having it.

There has never been a case that the team who win the league are not the best team in it. If Leicester win they'll have deserved it.
Click to expand...

Completely agree with this and as a few people have pointed out, a lot of sour grapes on this thread.

People talking about injuries: Lloris, Alderweirald, Dier, Alli and Kane have been almost ever present in the league. That's the entirety of our spine effectively.

Incidentally, I think the anger and upset may be a moot point anyway as personally I suspect were now more likely to finish 3rd than 2nd. Which I hope doesn't happen and which would still be a good season.
 
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