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Serious relegation fears

BucurestiSpur said:
Over the last season or so i've heard a lot on this board of regression toward (or to) the mean. Knowing almost nothing about statistics and probability i've always read those comments with interest.

With Leicesters run this season i would be interested if anyone has come across any interesting analysis of them this season with regards probability and mean and so on. This "fairytale" stuff is simply no longer cutting it for me.

When you add up their performance (most of) last season plus their improvement this season and then calculate in (the needed for Leicester to be top) failures of Arsenal, Emirates Marketing Project, Man U and Chelsea et al to play to their mean this season then the odds/possibility/statistical chance of Leicester being top by 7 clear points at this stage of the season must have been unutterably, breathtakingly remote if number crunched?

On a slightly more black-humoured note, what would have been the statistical probability of Spurs being champions this season? Pretty low. BUT being denied by Leicester? The chances of that are mind-spinning surely, as they would have to be added (or multiplied?) together?

Sorry if this takes the thread OT somewhat, i'm just genuinely struggling to get my mind around this. Also for any misuse of terminology!
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If you take the last 6/7 games from last season and add them to this Leicester would win the league with 84 points I think

That's phenomenal and would most leagues regardless of luck/big teams being poor/injuries Or any other excuse
 
Bedfordspurs said:
Yes, but my whirl comment is it hit his hand... Irrelevant of what I ther body part or could have hit. The only debate is intent surely???and its one we can't clarify
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The disagreement is over advantage gained - I don't think there was any advantage gained by the ball hitting his arm, whereas you do - hence why I said we aren't going to agree
 
billyiddo said:
The disagreement is over advantage gained - I don't think there was any advantage gained by the ball hitting his arm, whereas you do - hence why I said we aren't going to agree
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Surely the advantage is stopping the ball going in the net???
That's a huge advantage
 
afsoc4life said:
What Leicester has shown is that there are many ways of winning the EPL. I will not begrudge them their win. It is not the Spurs way to do such. They played the same number of EPL games as us and are ahead. If we want to be champions, we know exactly what has to happen. If Leicester can do it, no excuse for us or any other club not doing it!!
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Hoofball?
 
Craig_J said:
. . .
This season still a lot to play for. Top three means we don't have to play a Champions League qualifier and the difference between finishing runner up and 3rd is that 2nd place makes you 2nd seeds in the Champions League and 3rd place makes you 3rd seeds.
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The top seeds are the winner of the previous season's CL and the domestic champions from the 7 top ranked countries. The seeding for the other 3 pots is decided by the clubs' UEFA coefficients not league position. If we are in next year's CL group stage (but not as PL champions) I make it that we are most likely to be in Pot 3.

There is a financial difference to finishing 2nd rather than 3rd - additional Premier League prize money and a greater share of next season's Champions League money.
 
looking at the penalty incident objectively, simpson PREVENTED a goalscoring opportunity with his hand/arm, there was no other leicester player there, he was the last man etc, the law says he should get a red card and concede a penalty, it doesn't matter where his hand actually is or whether its accidental at this juncture because he ILLEGALLY stopped a goal from being scored. Media pundits will say all day long its not a pen but as you should know by now, thats because they hate us and want a leicester title so they can wax lyrically this summer about how amazing the league is and there's parity now zzzz
 
billyiddo said:
The disagreement is over advantage gained - I don't think there was any advantage gained by the ball hitting his arm, whereas you do - hence why I said we aren't going to agree
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There was. It's easier to deflect a ball with your arm than by twisting your body, even if the ball is coming straight at you.
 
Mr_B said:
looking at the penalty incident objectively, simpson PREVENTED a goalscoring opportunity with his hand/arm, there was no other leicester player there, he was the last man etc, the law says he should get a red card and concede a penalty, it doesn't matter where his hand actually is or whether its accidental at this juncture because he ILLEGALLY stopped a goal from being scored. Media pundits will say all day long its not a pen but as you should know by now, thats because they hate us and want a leicester title so they can wax lyrically this summer about how amazing the league is and there's parity now zzzz
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Chinese syndicate have money on Leicester.......
 
thfcsteff said:
For 4th to happen we would have to lose at least three of our final games. Do you really think that will happen mate? I think top 3. We must keep going for the title until it is impossible. Nothing to say it won't all get weird on Leicester (though I admit it is a slim chance at best)...
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Or Lose 2 and draw 2.

The key to a Top 4 finish all depends on next Sunday. A win and I would I would say 4 more pts does it. A draw and I think we might still need 7 from the last 5. The worry is a loss. United are 9 behind with a game in hand. Lose next Sunday and we have a fight on our hands.
Their last 6 are then
Villa, Palace, Leciester and Bournemouth at home. Norwich and West Ham away. That could see them finish on 70 maybe even 72pts.

I've always been looking over my shoulder at them and Liverpool due to their run-ins. The latter threat I would say is over now. I always wanted that 8pts gap on April 1st which we had because as I am hopeful we will not lose next week. But failures in the past at this stage of the season still means I am never confident
 
Roy1983 said:
Its amazing how I, mistakenly, thought we had top 4 sewn up two weeks ago. All of a sudden I'm worried about the filth and United.
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Tbh I always have been looking at my shoulder at them. Despite how poor they have been playing they seem to grind out results and as it happened with Fergie a few times they have fell lucky with Rashford, probably without injuries he would not have surfaced and they would have been the same United struggling to find goals
 
I have Leicester clocking in at 81 points, Scum at 74, and us at 73. Should be enough for Champions League, I reckon. Depending on whether or not we draw against United (and how we fare away to Stoke), we might get a point above Scum, but I can't for the life of me see us catching Leicester now.
 
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