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Politics, politics, politics

ShipOfGoldblum said:
I'd put money on May staying for ever. There are perhaps 50-60 hard Brexit headbanger Tory MPs. That's enough to trigger a vote of confidence, not enough to win one, but probably enough to ensure that there's at least one hard Brexiteer in the final two candidates offered to the membership. The assumption is that the membership will vote for a headbanger. So the majority of the party have nothing to gain - and everything to lose - from ousting May, and so May would likely win a parliamentary Conservative party vote of confidence.

Whatever outcome we get - chaos, EEA+, people's vote or a cake deal - it will be voted for by Parliament. Yes, the government will lose some crucial votes. It may well have a solution imposed on it by MPs. But that doesn't trigger another election unless there's a vote of no confidence in the Govt, and it's very unlikely that the ERG mob would ally with other parties to bring down the government, risking PM Corbyn - and deselection.

So the most likely scenario is that May goes on her own terms in 2021, by which time it's likely to be more obvious what's going on with Europe, and the membership could be hoped to have electoral success on their minds, rather than Brexit.

Anyone want to bet against this?
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If it were any other party I'd put my house on it being as you've said. The Conservatives do seem to have a penchant for implosion though.
 
scaramanga said:
If it were any other party I'd put my house on it being as you've said. The Conservatives do seem to have a penchant for implosion though.
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When are you thinking of? You'd have expected them to implode in 2016; they put in a compromise candidate of sphinx-like inscrutability, to cut the membership out of the loop. They avoided implosion in 1979 when they were taken over by ideological free-marketeers; they avoided implosion in the doldrum years of Smith and Blair; once a return to power was in sight in the Brown years they went for a one-nation hoody-hugging husky-herding smoothie, against all the natural instincts of the membership.

The Tories have a penchant for venomous briefing, that's all. Quite often they raise the spectre of implosion with journos to give a self-serving narrative a little more traction. First past the post means that parties that size, however fissile, simply do not implode.
 
ShipOfGoldblum said:
When are you thinking of? You'd have expected them to implode in 2016; they put in a compromise candidate of sphinx-like inscrutability, to cut the membership out of the loop. They avoided implosion in 1979 when they were taken over by ideological free-marketeers; they avoided implosion in the doldrum years of Smith and Blair; once a return to power was in sight in the Brown years they went for a one-nation hoody-hugging husky-herding smoothie, against all the natural instincts of the membership.

The Tories have a penchant for venomous briefing, that's all. Quite often they raise the spectre of implosion with journos to give a self-serving narrative a little more traction. First past the post means that parties that size, however fissile, simply do not implode.
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You might be right. In my head they're always replacing a better person with a worse one but a lot of that probably stems from them stabbing Thatcher in the back.
 
ShipOfGoldblum said:
I'd put money on May staying for ever. There are perhaps 50-60 hard Brexit headbanger Tory MPs. That's enough to trigger a vote of confidence, not enough to win one, but probably enough to ensure that there's at least one hard Brexiteer in the final two candidates offered to the membership. The assumption is that the membership will vote for a headbanger. So the majority of the party have nothing to gain - and everything to lose - from ousting May, and so May would likely win a parliamentary Conservative party vote of confidence.

Whatever outcome we get - chaos, EEA+, people's vote 2nd referendum or a cake deal - it will be voted for by Parliament. Yes, the government will lose some crucial votes. It may well have a solution imposed on it by MPs. But that doesn't trigger another election unless there's a vote of no confidence in the Govt, and it's very unlikely that the ERG mob would ally with other parties to bring down the government, risking PM Corbyn - and deselection.

So the most likely scenario is that May goes on her own terms in 2021, by which time it's likely to be more obvious what's going on with Europe, and the membership could be hoped to have electoral success on their minds, rather than Brexit.

Anyone want to bet against this?
Click to expand...

Call me pedantic, but I just had to fix one minor detail. I think everything else you say is pretty much spot on.
 
Gilzeantoscore said:
Well there just isn't any depth to the Tory party is there? Still confounds me that anyone could vote for this shower of brick!
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Brexit is a big factor too. For 52% of the population they were the safest bet for delivering it, even though they seem to be stymieing it a bit now. Their domestic agenda is of course horrific
 
monkeybarry said:
To be fair, the level of intelligence, competence and ability to argue a case has just hugely improved.
Raab should have been doing it from the start.

The reports of Boris Johnson talking about polishing a turd have been interestingly skipped over.
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If reports are anything to go by, Olly Robbins has been doing the negotiating and that will continue. Raab is window dressing for the Brexit wing of the Tory party, much in the way Davis was.
 
ShipOfGoldblum said:
I'd put money on May staying for ever. There are perhaps 50-60 hard Brexit headbanger Tory MPs. That's enough to trigger a vote of confidence, not enough to win one, but probably enough to ensure that there's at least one hard Brexiteer in the final two candidates offered to the membership. The assumption is that the membership will vote for a headbanger. So the majority of the party have nothing to gain - and everything to lose - from ousting May, and so May would likely win a parliamentary Conservative party vote of confidence.

Whatever outcome we get - chaos, EEA+, people's vote or a cake deal - it will be voted for by Parliament. Yes, the government will lose some crucial votes. It may well have a solution imposed on it by MPs. But that doesn't trigger another election unless there's a vote of no confidence in the Govt, and it's very unlikely that the ERG mob would ally with other parties to bring down the government, risking PM Corbyn - and deselection.

So the most likely scenario is that May goes on her own terms in 2021, by which time it's likely to be more obvious what's going on with Europe, and the membership could be hoped to have electoral success on their minds, rather than Brexit.

Anyone want to bet against this?
Click to expand...

Might depend on how much Johnson wants to have a play at being PM and if he thinks it's now or never. He doesn't want to deal with Brexit, but he does want to play at PM, like call me Dave did. If he fancies it, he can probably take May out imo.
 
Parklaner81 said:
Call me pedantic, but I just had to fix one minor detail. I think everything else you say is pretty much spot on.
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Fair enough. I marched for the people's vote and still have to put some very heavy implied inverted commas around it. Put me in charge of the spin and I'd term it a "national consultation".

If we're going to be properly pedantic, it would be a third referendum, of course. (Edit - as GB says).
 
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the dza said:
Might depend on how much Johnson wants to have a play at being PM and if he thinks it's now or never. He doesn't want to deal with Brexit, but he does want to play at PM, like call me Dave did. If he fancies it, he can probably take May out imo.
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"fudge business", his rooster-up over the lady in Iran, and increased evidence of maladministration at City Hall (from the garden bridge to the pikeybowl) have all lowered his stock since 2016. It's just possible that the membership would go for him if the alternative failed to excite them, but very unlikely that he could find sufficient MPs to back him. Papers quite often quote "friends of Boris", but the soundbites come from him directly. Friends has he none.
 
ShipOfGoldblum said:
"fudge business", his rooster-up over the lady in Iran, and increased evidence of maladministration at City Hall (from the garden bridge to the pikeybowl) have all lowered his stock since 2016. It's just possible that the membership would go for him if the alternative failed to excite them, but very unlikely that he could find sufficient MPs to back him. Papers quite often quote "friends of Boris", but the soundbites come from him directly. Friends has he none.
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You might be right, but I think if he makes a big push, he'd have massive support in the Tory media (The Sun, The Daily Mail). And I think, to unify their party and survive, they would just go behind him and the media tsunami and cross their fingers, oust May in a vote of no-confidence and go from there.
 
ShipOfGoldblum said:
"fudge business", his rooster-up over the lady in Iran, and increased evidence of maladministration at City Hall (from the garden bridge to the pikeybowl) have all lowered his stock since 2016. It's just possible that the membership would go for him if the alternative failed to excite them, but very unlikely that he could find sufficient MPs to back him. Papers quite often quote "friends of Boris", but the soundbites come from him directly. Friends has he none.
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The way the Tory party works is the MPs get it down to 2, then the membership decides. Leadsome would have won the party member vote in 2016 if she'd lasted a week without putting her foot in her mouth, as the Tory party members are 80s year old women from Tunbridge Wells

Basically Johnson only needs to come second out of MPs to be able to take out May

I'm not sure he'd actually stand again though. He'd resign and take his sizable faction off to ally with the ERG. But I think he might back a protégé this time instead
 
the dza said:
Might depend on how much Johnson wants to have a play at being PM and if he thinks it's now or never. He doesn't want to deal with Brexit, but he does want to play at PM, like call me Dave did. If he fancies it, he can probably take May out imo.
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Im amazed the clam still has a job, I cant fathom anyone putting him in power.

Aside from his dodgy business in the mayors office, and his frequent foot in mouth issues, his using Brexit as a power play was when he really brick the bed for me.

I cant believe anyone would have him in charge of a drinks order, let alone a government.

I get the feeling Gove is trying to manouvre into position for a run at some point, as if that jelly faced clam has a chance either!
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
Im amazed the clam still has a job, I cant fathom anyone putting him in power.

Aside from his dodgy business in the mayors office, and his frequent foot in mouth issues, his using Brexit as a power play was when he really brick the bed for me.

I cant believe anyone would have him in charge of a drinks order, let alone a government.

I get the feeling Gove is trying to manouvre into position for a run at some point, as if that jelly faced clam has a chance either!
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IDS was their leader - if he can get a go anyone can.
 
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