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Politics, politics, politics

monkeybarry said:
That's actually my point. If it were a presidential system, you replace the president.
We clearly have a failing Government, so mass resignations that bring down the prime minister should have consequences - a review of the elected officials by the electorate.

The Tory MP that said not delivering manefesto promises has consequenses is right. But it's the cabinet as a whole, not just the PM, that has to deliver that. The Tory party has failed to elect a leader and cabinet to do it's job. Time to reconsider if they are capable.
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You can't have 3 general elections and a referendum in 3 years though. That's just becoming pre-war Italy. The thing the country really needs is government, not politics

A leave-orientated government drawn largely from fresh faces from the 2010 and 2015 intake would be the best thing for the country at the moment.
 
Gutter Boy said:
I don't understand that logic. We don't have a presidential system - PMs have never been elected. It was the manifesto that was elected

Also, there's barely even time for a leadership contest before Brexit day, let alone a GE
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We all know (well, I'd hope so, in this thread at least) how our electoral system works, technically speaking. But the leader of a party is a big factor when it comes to where people cast their votes in an election. There are people who would never vote for Labour with Corbyn at the helm, but would do with someone else in charge, even if the policies are the same. Likewise Tories with someone like Boris Johnson. No good hiding behind technicalities and pretending that this doesn't exist.

We have a 2 year transition period when leaving the EU, where nothing is going to change (not immediately). IIRC, the EU have said they might extend this period (I'm sure they would in the event of us holding a general election). This government is a shambles and if/when May goes, there should be a general election.
 
scaramanga said:
From the beeb:


So it looks like our poor bargaining and constant bending over is directly at the hand of May. One who credited her with any level of intelligence might suggest that she engineered a weak position so as to force the form of Brexit she already wanted through. I don't believe she nearly has the cognitive dexterity for that.

It would pay to keep May out of any discussions regarding Brexit in the future, I think. Probably best to just send the EU our terms as they stand and tell them that the next response we will acknowledge is an acceptance of our terms. Meanwhile start noisily planning for a WTO Brexit.
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I suspect that is what happened she has always been a remainer at heart. Would not trust her and would not trust the EU either. Go in tough with the financial terrorists and if they don't accept our offer leave.
 
the dza said:
We all know (well, I'd hope so, in this thread at least) how our electoral system works, technically speaking. But the leader of a party is a big factor when it comes to where people cast their votes in an election. There are people who would never vote for Labour with Corbyn at the helm, but would do with someone else in charge, even if the policies are the same. Likewise Tories with someone like Boris Johnson. No good hiding behind technicalities and pretending that this doesn't exist.

We have a 2 year transition period when leaving the EU, where nothing is going to change (not immediately). IIRC, the EU have said they might extend this period (I'm sure they would in the event of us holding a general election). This government is a shambles and if/when May goes, there should be a general election.
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This.
 
Danishfurniturelover said:
Doubt it will do any good and I think she will sadly win a leadership contest.
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I'm not so sure. There's the Brexit betrayal grievances combined with the general poor leadership. Everyone knows she is unelectable, and if she wins the vote of confidence, she will end up leading them into the next election.

It depends on who looks like they would run against her if she loses it. If there's a popular charismatic untarnished candidate who is Brexit pure, she'll be toast
 
the dza said:
We all know (well, I'd hope so, in this thread at least) how our electoral system works, technically speaking. But the leader of a party is a big factor when it comes to where people cast their votes in an election. There are people who would never vote for Labour with Corbyn at the helm, but would do with someone else in charge, even if the policies are the same. Likewise Tories with someone like Boris Johnson. No good hiding behind technicalities and pretending that this doesn't exist.

We have a 2 year transition period when leaving the EU, where nothing is going to change (not immediately). IIRC, the EU have said they might extend this period (I'm sure they would in the event of us holding a general election). This government is a shambles and if/when May goes, there should be a general election.
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May massively hindered the Tories at the last election though. They won inspite of her

I hate May's social conservatism and remainism. I want her gone today.

But I also like most of our constitution and wouldn't like the move towards presidentialism we'd get if you end up normalising a change in party leadership meaning a GE. Prime Minister means prime minister - the first among equals of the ministers
 
Danishfurniturelover said:
I suspect that is what happened she has always been a remainer at heart. Would not trust her and would not trust the EU either. Go in tough with the financial terrorists and if they don't accept our offer leave.
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Brexit has already been sold out

I think the reality is BINO, then start the push for Brexit 2.0 to coincide with giving Ireland back to the Irish around the middle of the 2020s.
 
Gutter Boy said:
May massively hindered the Tories at the last election though. They won inspite of her

I hate May's social conservatism and remainism. I want her gone today.

But I also like most of our constitution and wouldn't like the move towards presidentialism we'd get if you end up normalising a change in party leadership meaning a GE. Prime Minister means prime minister - the first among equals of the ministers
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If there is another GE called, it will be up to Parliament (takes 2/3rds majority vote to trigger one under the Fixed Term Parliament act, iirc). Parliament deciding to do that is about as far from presidentialism as you can get imo. I think they should decide to trigger an election in the event of May going, whether they will or not is another matter.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
How likely is it May will go?

She is like that skiddy in the pan, doesnt matter how much you tinkle on it that thing just keeps hanging in there.
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It's true, I've been expecting her to resign ever since the last GE result, and she's still there. Nobody else wants the job (in the Tory Party I mean). It's almost as if The Tories are punishing her for losing the majority in the last GE by keeping her in place.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
How likely is it May will go?

She is like that skiddy in the pan, doesnt matter how much you tinkle on it that thing just keeps hanging in there.
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I admired her tenacity (if not her ability) in hanging on in the face of enormous pressure post-the GE fiasco. Having seen her do it once, I don't envisage her letting go easily now.

Not saying that represents a good or bad outcome, just calling what I see in terms of the likelihood of her departing (without an almighty struggle) in circumstances such as these.
 
I'd put money on May staying for ever. There are perhaps 50-60 hard Brexit headbanger Tory MPs. That's enough to trigger a vote of confidence, not enough to win one, but probably enough to ensure that there's at least one hard Brexiteer in the final two candidates offered to the membership. The assumption is that the membership will vote for a headbanger. So the majority of the party have nothing to gain - and everything to lose - from ousting May, and so May would likely win a parliamentary Conservative party vote of confidence.

Whatever outcome we get - chaos, EEA+, people's vote or a cake deal - it will be voted for by Parliament. Yes, the government will lose some crucial votes. It may well have a solution imposed on it by MPs. But that doesn't trigger another election unless there's a vote of no confidence in the Govt, and it's very unlikely that the ERG mob would ally with other parties to bring down the government, risking PM Corbyn - and deselection.

So the most likely scenario is that May goes on her own terms in 2021, by which time it's likely to be more obvious what's going on with Europe, and the membership could be hoped to have electoral success on their minds, rather than Brexit.

Anyone want to bet against this?
 
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