Politics, politics, politics

[the dza]

It is a symbol of the sort of country I would like. Just because you have never woken up and thought it does not make it wrong.

We should be trading with the whole world and we should not allow an organisation that does not care about our future make decisions that effect this country and not theirs.

What do you think doing a free-trade deal with the USA is gonna look like? And who will be the arbiter of any disputes?

 

[scaramanga]

What's confusing is that most of the other Gordon Gecko types think it's very important to stay in a Customs Union. Being that you and them have the same aims (doing right by your business) what makes them wrong?

A difference in risk appetite, I suspect. If I'm to achieve what I want over the next 10-20 years, my business needs to grow (or at least profits do). If I had already achieved that and just wanted the profits to keep ticking over, I'd probably be more risk averse too.

 

[SpurMeUp]

View attachment 4685

Funny you must have skipped the bit that mentions:

Data compiled by Rebecca Driver of the consultancy Analytically Driven highlight a causal link between Britain’s greater openness to trade since 1973 and its subsequent specialisation in high productivity sectors, including finance, high-tech manufacturing and business services. Ms Driver said the 11 per cent of British companies that trade internationally are responsible for 60 per cent of the UKs productivity gains

...its not just a correlation. At the end of the day, its just logic: being able to trade openly with 500 consumers on our door step and contribute to the terms of that trade has to be good. What should we replace it with that is better?

 

[scaramanga]

Funny you must have skipped the bit that mentions:

Data compiled by Rebecca Driver of the consultancy Analytically Driven highlight a causal link between Britain’s greater openness to trade since 1973 and its subsequent specialisation in high productivity sectors, including finance, high-tech manufacturing and business services. Ms Driver said the 11 per cent of British companies that trade internationally are responsible for 60 per cent of the UKs productivity gains

...its not just a correlation. At the end of the day, its just logic: being about to trade openly with 500 consumers and contribute to the terms of that trade has to be good.

It's causal because she says it is? Or she has some reason to think that the worldwide move towards free markets and trade would somehow have ignored the UK under other circumstances?

 

[the dza]

A difference in risk appetite, I suspect. If I'm to achieve what I want over the next 10-20 years, my business needs to grow (or at least profits do). If I had already achieved that and just wanted the profits to keep ticking over, I'd probably be more risk averse too.

But didn't you vote remain due to not wanting to risk investments that you have? On the one hand you wanted the certainty of remaining, but now you have decided that a hard-Brexit, with higher risk, is better for you. Do I have that right?

 

[scaramanga]

Post Brexit vote, everything imported got more expensive because the pound flunked. We are all worse off by a few hundred quid a year now. Expect more of that if car firms, banks etc move into the EU from the UK. Do you care in this instance, or just when it suits a Leave perspective? The downgrading of our economy is not hypothetical however. We have high levels of inflation now. A hard Brexit would not bring about an upflift in our currency, I'd guess it would see it slip further down making everything imported more expensive still, and holidays abroad much more pricy.

Our economy is also tied to some extremely poor regions in the UK. Parts of Wales etc Being connected to the EU is not just being connected to the (tiny) economy of Greece but also the strength and power of Germany, France etc. and Italy and Spain are large relatively successful economies. Together we are stronger and able to compete with the US, China etc and so what if we bring little places like Greece along with us, if that is what they choose? It's no great strain on us, and actually provides us with more markets for us to sell to and interact with. You want to sell you medical stuff into a hospital in Athens, or buy a little plot of land on a Greek island to relax on - you could both this week if you needed without any beaucratic nonsense holding you up. That has been the success of the EU and has seen the UK become more wealthy since the 70s off the back of this open market potential. Its something us Anglo-Saxons are better setup to exploit. Whether from Thatcherism or an inbuilt way of working, we benifit from open trade more than southern nations it seesm - just look at the data below on how the UK grew and overtook France, Germany in some economic meansure since joining in the 70s.On our own we were the sick man of Europe, and it wasn't all that long ago. We have freedom to trade with the commonwealth and other nations then. What has changed now?

Different ways to measure wealth accross the EU. I thought these maybe interesting

And next time the Euro tanks we'll be in the prime seats again - there's little to no point measuring currency fluctuations over the short term as they all work in cycles larger than that. You're also ignoring the benefits of cheaper currency, like more exports (if we weren't hampered by a bunch of protectionist, socialist tossers).

If you're suggesting that we annex parts of Wales and the North you absolutely have my vote. I don't think we should be propping them up either and if the EU wants them, we should let them have them (along with NI).

 

[SpurMeUp]

It's causal because she says it is? Or she has some reason to think that the worldwide move towards free markets and trade would somehow have ignored the UK under other circumstances?

For a centurary or more almost all studies that have looked have found wealth increases with open trade. While that is correlational, it is such a prevelant finding we can safly rule out any 3rd varables. Just like smoking is only correlated with cancer. In theory it might be people who smoke also like fry ups and that is why causes cancer. But it's not fry ups, there have been so many correlations between smioking and cancer we can rule out third variables.

Now if you said this increased trade doesn't benifit everyone in the UK as much as it should - then that is a more interesting angle.

 

[scaramanga]

But didn't you vote remain due to not wanting to risk investments that you have? On the one hand you wanted the certainty of remaining, but now you have decided that a hard-Brexit, with higher risk, is better for you. Do I have that right?

No, I voted remain because I was selling a house and didn't want the short term disruption. I was hoping that the can would be kicked down the road bit.

Edit:
Actually, what I was really hoping for was such a narrow remain win that Cameron could go back to the EU and insist they gave us what they should have done the first time,

 

[scaramanga]

For a centurary or more almost all studies that have looked have found wealth increases with open trade. While that is correlational, it is such a prevelant finding that I think we can safly rule our any 3rd varables. Just link smoking is only correlated with cancer. In theory it might be people who smoke also like fry ups and that is why causes cancer. But its not fry ups, there have been so many correlations between the two we can rule out third variables.

Now if you said this increased trade doesn't benifit everyone as much as it should - then that is a more interesting angle.

And across the world (pre-Trump) the world (not just the EU) has been trending towards.........

(I'll give you a hint; I highlighted it for you).

 

[SpurMeUp]

And across the world (pre-Trump) the world (not just the EU) has been trending towards.........

(I'll give you a hint; I highlighted it for you).

Why would you then be an exponent of reducing open trade and leaving the worlds largest customs union? Somthing doesn't stack up here.

 

[scaramanga]

Why would you then be an exponent of reducing open trade and leaving the worlds largest customs union? Somthing doesn't stack up here.

Because they're restricting free trade with the 85% of the world that isn't the EU. And that problem is getting worse:

 

[the dza]

No, I voted remain because I was selling a house and didn't want the short term disruption. I was hoping that the can would be kicked down the road bit.

Edit:
Actually, what I was really hoping for was such a narrow remain win that Cameron could go back to the EU and insist they gave us what they should have done the first time,

Well, that's fair enough. But if there is to be short-term disruption for potentially millions of people (be it those selling houses, with small businesses or just average workers who work for big companies that decide they can't do business here without a smooth bridge to Europe) wouldn't that be quite disastrous for the country as a whole? Would it not be better to avoid that kind of disruption?

My opinion is that it would, and then we can get back to the domestic issues that need fixing. Obviously you and I disagree on those issues and how they should be resolved, but I don't think politics of the left or right are served by what is (imo) totally unnecessary risks to people's jobs and security.

 

[scaramanga]

Well, that's fair enough. But if there is to be short-term disruption for potentially millions of people (be it those selling houses, with small businesses or just average workers who work for big companies that decide they can't do business here without a smooth bridge to Europe) wouldn't that be quite disastrous for the country as a whole? Would it not be better to avoid that kind of disruption?

My opinion is that it would, and then we can get back to the domestic issues that need fixing. Obviously you and I disagree on those issues and how they should be resolved, but I don't think politics of the left or right are served by what is (imo) totally unnecessary risks to people's jobs and security.

Those events don't stop happening altogether during something like Brexit, people just delay until the outcome is a little clearer. In the run up to the vote, the housing market almost stopped dead - soon afterwards it picked up again and is now holding until this time next year (according to those who appear to know about this kind of thing).

So those sales, trades, etc will still happen - there will just be a delay. If someone wants to rush a sale through then they can drop the price until it does - that works at both ends so it's virtually zero sum. That didn't suit me personally at the time, now it does.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

What do you think doing a free-trade deal with the USA is gonna look like? And who will be the arbiter of any disputes?

With this current government it will look shocking. We need to take a progressive approach, so not allowing them to takeover the NHS IF it is not in our interest same with taking dodgy chicken imports.

I know like a lot of left wing people you hate and are scared of America. But we should show maturity and confidence and set out clear guidelines to do with safety and standards.

America can still do very well out of us and we can them. There does not have to be doom and all the time, as long as we are clear in negotiations we will be fine. That is a strong if.

Problem with this country is everyone seems to have lost their confidence after years of propaganda at the behest of the EU.

We don't want to take over the world, just engage with it.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

Also the EU does care about our future, as we are big part of the EU28... You know who doesn't care for our future and never will... The US of A

Jeez you guys really hate America don't you.

Trump is a cut no doubt. But the is more to America then him. You sign proper laws stating our scientists decide what is safe to eat etc. I would sort of agree not convinced the Tories could pull that off.

EU does not care about us accept the way a drug dealer hopes his best client continues to live.

The government have an impossible job because the are civil servants even more extreme then you guys trying to throw up road blocks.

 

[the dza]

With this current government it will look shocking. We need to take a progressive approach, so not allowing them to takeover the NHS IF it is not in our interest same with taking dodgy chicken imports.

I know like a lot of left wing people you hate and are scared of America. But we should show maturity and confidence and set out clear guidelines to do with safety and standards.

America can still do very well out of us and we can them. There does not have to be doom and all the time, as long as we are clear in negotiations we will be fine. That is a strong if.

Problem with this country is everyone seems to have lost their confidence after years of propaganda at the behest of the EU.

We don't want to take over the world, just engage with it.

I don't hate America, though I have no time for their politicians. And I know that American corporations don't give a phuck about our citizens, they barely care about American ones. As you say, with the current government it doesn't look good -- they are in thrall to those same corporate interests, it's hard to get all misty eyed about manky chicken to eat, or American Healthcare companies getting their claws into the NHS. And that's what their terms will be, and the bigger countries/trading blocs set the terms, which is what we are finding out with the EU negotiations currently.

We can set out those clear guidelines to American negotiators and they will say "that's nice, but we are the biggest economy on earth and these are our terms for a trade deal." The Tory right will gladly take those terms. I'd rather stick with the EU regulations.

 

[Parklaner81]

There are so many interests and positions to mediate through, I just can't see it sticking however. I am probably the only one on here that respects Mays efforts on Brexit. Quite how she has managed to meddle through with a divided party and seemingly impossible mandate is, you have to say, impressive. But despite that, with the timeframe and the amounts of interests to be dealt with in the EU and at home, it will be miraculous if she can pull this off.

The proposed deal is still a fudge, but pull it off and it addresses the core concern - free movement - so maybe it has legs. I like the ideas but won't be holding my breath, the chances of delivery are not stacked in our favour.

Not quite the only one...not sure you'll appreciate the company though

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Presumably you are talking about the UK not benifiting and not these other EU nations? If so, what is all this data below about? I replied to your post with it about 10 pages backwhen you asked for hard data, did you evaluate it? What were your thoughts? Is it gonads or not applicable to everyone in the UK? Maybe fair points if backed up.


From the FT:

Britain joined what was then the European Economic Community in 1973 as the sick man of Europe. By the late 1960s, France, West Germany and Italy — the three founder members closest in size to the UK — produced more per person than it did and the gap grew larger every year. Between 1958, when the EEC was set up, and Britain’s entry in 1973, gross domestic product per head rose 95 per cent in these three countries compared with only 50 per cent in Britain.

After becoming an EEC member, Britain slowly began to catch up. Gross domestic product per person has grown faster than Italy, Germany and France in the more than 40 years since. By 2013, Britain became more prosperous than the average of the three other large European economies for the first time since 1965.

Data compiled by Rebecca Driver of the consultancy Analytically Driven highlight a causal link between Britain’s greater openness to trade since 1973 and its subsequent specialisation in high productivity sectors, including finance, high-tech manufacturing and business services. Ms Driver said the 11 per cent of British companies that trade internationally are responsible for 60 per cent of the UKs productivity gains

“These companies prefer large geographically concentrated markets with strong unified regulations,” she adds. “For the UK, that is the EU”. In other words, trade drives competition and growth. Since 1993, the UK has been the bloc’s top recipient of inward foreign direct investment, according to the UN. .https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/202a60c0-cfd8-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377


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The GDP value of European Union represents 26.45 percent of the world economy. You'd still say its no powerhouse tho?

Academia, economists and simple logic shows that having free trade with 500 million people helps the UK. Impairing that trade and losing any input into the terms of that trade is a bad thing. Yes the UKs success has come at a cost. We’ve had migration which has put a strain on some communities and maybe we focus too much on wealth creation over society, but I believe both these things can be addressed by OUR government, it’s all too easy to blame the EU for all of our internal issues.

You state that being in the EU creates wealth and prosperity.(blanket statement) I'm saying it doesn't for everyone.(PIGS) And I don't need an infographic to prove it.

Hell, even WE have a national debt we are struggling to put a dent in.

GDP is the total monetary value of all goods and services produced in an economic region. It's a gauge of the size of an economy but also a vanity figure, if that country is crippled by debt, just like any business that thinks that turnover is a dingdong swinger.

A valid question is how does that affect the EU long term and is it viable, sustainable and acceptable. Do we want to be part of that or around when the shake out happens?

I'm not siding with leave, just think its not the no brainer you suggest.

I am focusing on the economic and trading bloc issues as requested when you implied it was the most important aspect. I'll talk about the other things if you want me to.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Not quite the only one...not sure you'll appreciate the company though

My favorite posters are Brexiteers truth be told!

Day to day meeting people who don't know my preference, leavers I meet are passionate, come across as salt of the earth honest types. There is a lot to respect about the underlying motivations and desires behind Brexit. It shows there is motivate for collective improvement in politics. For me, the genuine shame is its the right ideas directed as the wrong vehicles. Sadly its not the EU but our government that needs shaking up - of course in my opinion. That's not to say the EU is perfect by any stretch. It's that the things people want can be delivered by the UK government imo. Hope that's not offending anyone.

 

[Parklaner81]

Hell, even WE have a national debt we are struggling failing to put a dent in.

Don't worry, Jezza's coming to fix that