Politics, politics, politics

[milo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/873439472020488192

 

[scaramanga]

I wouldn't count on the youth vote again, the SNP thought they had it locked in after the indyref but they've melted away.

I still don't think the youth vote is reliable. It's dangerous for any party to hope to keep it.

It's also a little dangerous for the country having so much power in the hands of people who have never had to pay rent/a mortgage or put food on the table.

The electorate is stupid, the young make them seem intelligent.

 

[glasgowspur]

I get that but Labour made gains in this election with marginal inroads in Scotland. If there is further dissatisfaction with the SNP and the Tories start ripping themselves apart then there is the potential for Labour to start re-establishing itself in Scotland.

Holding onto the youth vote in England may be difficult and could depend on the timing of elections but I cannot see the Tories being able to pledge scrapping tuition fees or Labour ditching the pledge. I see that as the turning point with the young vote in England.

I also think the Tories in Scotland are setting themselves up for a similar fall. In 3 elections Scottish voters have went from life time labour supporters, to SNP and now Tory. You can't count on that kind of vote.

Its stunning what Davidson has done, it's so tribal up here that there is some that would say that as a gay Tory hun who is a jump the dyke (married across the religious divide) and marry a gay irish tim she'd be lucky if her own mother didn't across the street to avoid her.*
The Tories are so toxic up here to win 12 votes never mind 12 seats in incredible, but it's not sustainable.

*I can translate that into normal people English if anyone is unsure

 

[scaramanga]

Gotta say I would love to see some of the Labour talent return to the front bench. Doesn't mean they will steam roller the stories but they will be really credible again.

Also, I don't see Juncker being the UKs common enemy, or much of the population buying that. There isn't an overwhelming majority of people that want to leave anyway, so I think every time it looks like this process will get more difficult, it gives people a bit of a buzz. I know it does for me!

Juncker has long been the enemy even when we were in the EU.

 

[scaramanga]

I get that but Labour made gains in this election with marginal inroads in Scotland. If there is further dissatisfaction with the SNP and the Tories start ripping themselves apart then there is the potential for Labour to start re-establishing itself in Scotland.

Holding onto the youth vote in England may be difficult and could depend on the timing of elections but I cannot see the Tories being able to pledge scrapping tuition fees or Labour ditching the pledge. I see that as the turning point with the young vote in England.

It's easy to motivate the student vote against the big evil establishment as a weird outsider.

Corbyn is part of the establishment now, he may find it very difficult to motivate them next time around.

 

[milo]

Juncker has long been the enemy even when we were in the EU.

If Cameron hadn't pulled the Conservatives out of the European People's Party he might have had more clout in objecting to his appointment.

 

[scaramanga]

Well. well. well. I wonder what our good friends at the Sun and the Daily Mail will make of this, because they are such standard bearers of national security? What would their reaction be, if Labour got into bed with a political party with associations with terrorist groups...gasp! The silence will be deafening from them about the DUP. Shows them up for the hypocrites they are. Hey Scara, do you approve of this? What about the bigoted views of these people towards gays?

I don't like them at all. They're as bad as Corbyn's lot are towards the Jewish community.

 

[scaramanga]

If Cameron hadn't pulled the Conservatives out of the European People's Party he might have had more clout in objecting to his appointment.

Absolutely. Cameron fudged up with pretty much every step in Europe.

He failed in what they like to pretend are elections, he failed to properly convince them we were willing and able to leave if they didn't make some fairly mild concessions, and he failed to present the best case for the public which was a soft Brexit.

Cameron did some pretty good stuff as PM, but fudged up on every step in Europe.

 

[milo]

It's easy to motivate the student vote against the big evil establishment as a weird outsider.

Corbyn is part of the establishment now, he may find it very difficult to motivate them next time around.

But not as easy as motivating an OAP vote against fictitious threats.

Corbyn doesn't come out of the election any more part of the establishment than he went into. From here he needs to strengthen the front bench keep the popular pledges to scrap tuition fees and put more money into public services and let the Conservatives carry on being crap.

 

[scaramanga]

But not as easy as motivating an OAP vote against fictitious threats.

Corbyn doesn't come out of the election any more part of the establishment than he went into. From here he needs to strengthen the front bench keep the popular pledges to scrap tuition fees and put more money into public services and let the Conservatives carry on being crap.

If he strengthens the front bench he loses his outsider credentials. If he doesn't strengthen then he's still the dangerous outsider that didn't get near a majority.

His next move will be very difficult.

 

[K.D.D.D.D.Soc]

I still don't think the youth vote is reliable. It's dangerous for any party to hope to keep it.

It's also a little dangerous for the country having so much power in the hands of people who have never had to pay rent/a mortgage or put food on the table.

The electorate is stupid, the young make them seem intelligent.

Is any vote reliable? Most people I know vote on what they mistakenly believe will benefit them or because they're tinkled off with the current government. The days of the electorate having an ideological stance are long gone, we live in a me society with no vision of the future.

 

[milo]

If he strengthens the front bench he loses his outsider credentials. If he doesn't strengthen then he's still the dangerous outsider that didn't get near a majority.

His next move will be very difficult.

I don't think that's true. Most voters would struggle to name more than a couple of people on both front benches combined. What it would mean is that he would have more competent media performers to spread the message and share the load.

More importantly, what attack lines do the Conservatives have left? They will obviously have to come up with some sweeteners for when they next go to the polls. Austerity looks dead and didn't achieve its objective. How are they going to be able to land the 'terrorist sympathiser' line again?

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Well. well. well. I wonder what our good friends at the Sun and the Daily Mail will make of this, because they are such standard bearers of national security? What would their reaction be, if Labour got into bed with a political party with associations with terrorist groups...gasp! The silence will be deafening from them about the DUP. Shows them up for the hypocrites they are. Hey Scara, do you approve of this? What about the bigoted views of these people towards gays?

I'm more concerned that the Sun and Mail are part of your life.

 

[Parklaner81]

I don't think that's true. Most voters would struggle to name more than a couple of people on both front benches combined. What it would mean is that he would have more competent media performers to spread the message and share the load.

It's not dissimilar to the point I made last night though; move centre & he loses the 'radical' support, stay where he is & he struggles to attract beyond that which he already has. Either way of looking at it, things are going to be a lot harder for him than it's been to this point.

 

[milo]

It's not dissimilar to the point I made last night though; move centre & he loses the 'radical' support, stay where he is & he struggles to attract beyond that which he already has. Either way of looking at it, things are going to be a lot harder for him than it's been to this point.

I think that the manifesto stays the same. He has a clear mandate for that now. Anyone rejoining the cabinet is doing so on his terms and signing up to his policies.

 

[Parklaner81]

I think that the manifesto stays the same. He has a clear mandate for that now. Anyone rejoining the cabinet is doing so on his terms and signing up to his policies.

I'm sure it will. I'm just pointing out what I see as the difficulties.

It's also going to be interesting watching how any such 're-joins' play out...those MP's also aren't in the easiest position now.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

It's not dissimilar to the point I made last night though; move centre & he loses the 'radical' support, stay where he is & he struggles to attract beyond that which he already has. Either way of looking at it, things are going to be a lot harder for him than it's been to this point.

I don't think the young support is that radical. Labour just ran an excellent infiltrating social media campaign that caught the attention of the young and developed a herd mentality amongst them (especially with a sweetner like scrapping tuition fees).

They more than likely engaged because they could all call him 'Jezza'. That's how deep it runs.

 

[Parklaner81]

I don't think the young support is that radical. Labour just ran an excellent infiltrating social media campaign that caught the attention of the young and developed a herd mentality amongst them (especially with a sweetner like scrapping tuition fees).

They more than likely engaged because they could all call him 'Jezza'. That's how deep it runs.

Fair point. I'm still not sure how well that support, however we label it, holds up if the top team contains a fair number of more moderate members though.

 

[Baleforce]

If Corbyn holds position that leaves a massive gap in the centre for the Tories to return to, if they can find the right leader ithey can exploit that.

 

[milo]

It's also going to be interesting watching how any such 're-joins' play out...those MP's also aren't in the easiest position now.

I think that they will just say that they were concerned about it as an electoral strategy rather than there being any major disagreements on policy and their concerns have been shown to be wrong by the size of the vote.