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Politics, politics, politics

the dza said:
Only time will tell, but it's what I think will happen. 65 seat gain for Labour might be hard according to conventional wisdom, but conventional wisdom thought anywhere from 50-100 seat majority for the Tories.
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I think it all depends who replaces May and established for a couple of years before the next election.
 
spitshine said:
I think it all depends who replaces May and established for a couple of years before the next election.
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I doubt that they have a couple of years grace. The parliamentary pressure will be huge, even if they cannot go to the polls, they will not have a free hand.
 
milo said:
How do we know that they were voting against Brussels rather than taking the opportunity to give Westminster a free kick in the balls?
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We don't know anything for sure.

I'm just pointing out that last night's labour vote doesn't by any means necessarily represent some kind of 'floor' that can only be improved upon, as certain posts in here seem to be suggesting.
 
Parklaner81 said:
We don't know anything for sure.
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We've spent the last year having politicians telling us that they do know what it was a vote for (normally what they want but didn't have the courage to get an explicit mandate for during the referendum).
 
Parklaner81 said:
We don't know anything for sure.

I'm just pointing out that last night's labour vote doesn't by any means necessarily represent some kind of 'floor' that can only be improved upon, as certain posts in here seem to be suggesting.
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Nobody knows for sure what will happen in the next election, obviously there is no floor as such, votes go up and down. But as things stand, Labour aren't that far behind anymore, a small shift in the numbers means a hung parliament but with the arithmetic in favour of Labour. A little more of a shift and perhaps even a small majority. Considering the talk 6 weeks ago was of losing by 150 seats or more, I think the momentum is with Labour (no pun intended ;) ).
 
milo said:
The public smell blood. I think that they won't be happy until they get it.
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You could well be right.

But consider also that Labour might actually find things quite difficult from this point; if they move toward the centre in any way (hardly likely under Jezza obviously, but...), they risk losing a lot of the support that Corbyn has undeniably brought in. But if they stay where they are, how do they win votes from the near 45% tory block...?
 
Parklaner81 said:
You could well be right.

But consider also that Labour might actually find things quite difficult from this point; if they move toward the centre in any way (hardly likely under Jezza obviously, but...), they risk losing a lot of the support that Corbyn has undeniably brought in. But if they stay where they are, how do they win votes from the near 45% tory block...?
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The same way they did yesterday. Win enough votes in enough marginal seats to turn blue seats red. Things change all the time, why not gain 30 seats net off the Tories next time? None of us have crystal balls, but it's not unthinkable.
 
Parklaner81 said:
You could well be right.

But consider also that Labour might actually find things quite difficult from this point; if they move toward the centre in any way (hardly likely under Jezza obviously, but...), they risk losing a lot of the support that Corbyn has undeniably brought in. But if they stay where they are, how do they win votes from the near 45% tory block...?
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I don't think that the Labour Party need to move the centre from here, the argument has been had and won. The result is that a huge number of people voted for a manifesto that moderates thought that they wouldn't. The argument was primarily over electability rather than values.
 
milo said:
I don't think that the Labour Party need to move the centre from here, the argument has been had and won. The result is that a huge number of people voted for a manifesto that moderates thought that they wouldn't.
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I completely agree. I would include myself in that. I'm just pointing out the possibility that progress from such a point could potentially be very difficult.
 
Parklaner81 said:
I completely agree. I would include myself in that. I'm just pointing out the possibility that progress from such a point could potentially be very difficult.
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The Tories look like losers, the public do not have a lot of tolerance for losers hanging around. May's government already feel to me like the fag end Major government. If Labour can avoid massive fudge ups and pull together, I think that they are in prime position when the election comes.
 
milo said:
I think that they want her to leave, not them.

She'll be forced out after the Queen's Speech. Have a leadership election over the summer and we'll have another general election in the autumn with a Tory manifesto packed with sweeteners for OAPs.
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The Stevia manifesto.
 
milo said:
The Tories look like losers, the public do not have a lot of tolerance for losers hanging around. May's government already feel to me like the fag end Major government. If Labour can avoid massive fudge ups and pull together, I think that they are in prime position when the election comes.
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Again, I'm not disagreeing. Perception is everything, and this is going to be a massive problem for them.

At the same time, they also took their highest share of the vote since 1979, and pulled nearly 2.5 million more votes than they did under 'majority' Dave Cameron two years ago.

Just some alternative facts ;)
 
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