Politics, politics, politics

[milo]

If Corbyn holds position that leaves a massive gap in the centre for the Tories to return to, if they can find the right leader ithey can exploit that.

I agree but that will require them to ditch hard Brexit. That leaves them vulnerable to the headbangers in the party and a possible UKIP resurgence.

 

[Baleforce]

I agree but that will require them to ditch hard Brexit. That leaves them vulnerable to the headbangers in the party and a possible UKIP resurgence.

I think the clear message of Thursday to May was "fudge your hard brexit".

 

[milo]

I think the clear message of Thursday to May was "fudge your hard brexit".

I think that was part of it, as was a rejection of austerity, but mainly I think it was a rejection of her.

How do the Conservatives square that with the small number of their supporters/MPs for whom this is the biggest issue?

 

[Hotshot-Tottenham]

It's not dissimilar to the point I made last night though; move centre & he loses the 'radical' support, stay where he is & he struggles to attract beyond that which he already has. Either way of looking at it, things are going to be a lot harder for him than it's been to this point.

I think that the manifesto stays the same. He has a clear mandate for that now. Anyone rejoining the cabinet is doing so on his terms and signing up to his policies.

He can also tailor his messages to his different audiences.

Very easy to promote one set of policies digitally via social media to the youth, and another through traditional media, rallies etc to his other demographic(s).

As long as the big picture is joined up, the pieces fit together and don't contradict, then he should be fine in communicating those messages.

Fascinating times.

I still can't believe how badly the Tories naffed up, from Dave running scared of his back benchers, then under performing in the referendum campaign (with some help from spurious messages from Leave, granted), to May massively miscalculating both the timing and type of her election campaign.

The stench of hubris is heavy in the air.

 

[Baleforce]

I think that was part of it, as was a rejection of austerity, but mainly I think it was a rejection of her.

How do the Conservatives square that with the small number of their supporters/MPs for whom this is the biggest issue?

do you mean those for a hard brexit?

 

[scaramanga]

I don't think that's true. Most voters would struggle to name more than a couple of people on both front benches combined. What it would mean is that he would have more competent media performers to spread the message and share the load.

More importantly, what attack lines do the Conservatives have left? They will obviously have to come up with some sweeteners for when they next go to the polls. Austerity looks dead and didn't achieve its objective. How are they going to be able to land the 'terrorist sympathiser' line again?

The only tactic the Conservatives need is "not May"

She was everything that was wrong with that election campaign.

 

[milo]

do you mean those for a hard brexit?

Yeah. They've brought down the last two Tory Prime Ministers.

 

[milo]

The only tactic the Conservatives need is "not May"

She was everything that was wrong with that election campaign.

I think that it will take a little more to shake off the perception of being incompetent bastards.

I would expect an incoming leader to prioritise spending on public services. I predict that there will be more than a whiff of Corbyn to the next Conservative manifesto.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

All in all it would be nice to take a step forward at some stage.

It's as if we're preparing for the World Cup (Brexit) by spending 12 months in the dentist chair. This is the biggest negotiation in my lifetime and will affect the next generation as well.

IMO Brexit needs to be sectioned off, ringfenced from being a political football, and cross party discussion around getting a team together that can do us justice, whether that be Davies, Cable etc. There were remainers/leavers within all parties so it's not as though any party would be conceding anything.
May has f.cked us by starting the clock and then effing up royally.

Time is of the essence and we need to get a wriggle on as B-day approaches and we look as weak and disorganised as England vs Iceland.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

I think the clear message of Thursday to May was "fudge your hard brexit".

I am not sure. It was certainly two fingers up to old world conservatives. They know longer stand a chance unless they have progressive policies. Also Corbyn has backed Brexit, not a hard one I know. But i think the UKIP that went to Labour and you could have nearly put me in that group just did not want to vote for May.

One thing I was thinking about the other day is how so many people say about that referendum that it was 52% versus the 48% and that of the 52% a lot wanted different things. But purely anecdotally I know a few people who voted to remain in the EU who had serious issues with it, so even amongst the 48% I think the will be a few who would back a soft brexit. Nothing to do with the current discussion, but I think disquiet with the EU is higher than 52% it is just some people understandably do not want to put the economy at risk.

I am not one of those people and feel we would be fine long term after short term pain and would like to do a poo on Junckers face. Just as our electorate did on May's on Thursday.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

I think that it will take a little more to shake off the perception of being incompetent bastards.

I would expect an incoming leader to prioritise spending on public services. I predict that there will be more than a whiff of Corbyn to the next Conservative manifesto.

I think they need a root and branch reform, clearly something like privatising the railways will never be a tory thing and backing grammar schools is. Both things I agree with the conservatives on, yet I did not vote for them or want to vote for them and the tory party is the party that should fit me best. I know I am a little bit of a perv on here and everything but in all seriousness they need to be thinking about how they win back people like me and our vote.

I might have watched to match house of cards but I do not understand why a government does not set up more traps for the opposition, so they put forward a bill that is popular with the country and let the opposition try to vote it down in the house, all they have to do at the next general election is say at a debate well you blocked such and such bill. Canny politics but I follow politics and I am not sure I see much of that happening.

Also I guess the opposition can spend the majority of time in opposition planning a manifesto, but I do not understand why the government does not put aside a few people in the party whose whole job is planning for an election even if it is 5 years away. Bit like the people at Selfridges who are already planning the Christmas shop display.

That the tories thought the social care plan was a good pledge is beyong belief and I can not understand how it has not been discussed in focus groups and the like for months. May was really really shocking and if the tories are ever to get a majority they need some proper long term planning. Dare I say it they need to run themselves as Levy has run Tottenham.

 

[milo]

That the tories thought the social care plan was a good pledge is beyong belief and I can not understand how it has not been discussed in focus groups and the like for months. May was really really shocking and if the tories are ever to get a majority they need some proper long term planning. Dare I say it they need to run themselves as Levy has run Tottenham.

The dementia tax was meant to have been added to the manifesto at the last minute by Nick Timothy without the knowledge of the cabinet.

The is an issue with how we pay for the care of the elderly with an ageing population. One solution was by increasing the working population through immigration but that is off the table at the moment. Another is through taxation but this botched attempt means that no one will dare try it again for a while. The fairest solution is a slight increase in inheritance tax but no one seems to have the courage to suggest it.

 

[monkeybarry]

Why would the Tories risk another general election so soon in the autumn. Corbyn is getting more and more confident and popular, the Labour party are not the shambles they have been in the recent past, it's possible they could gain more ground on the Tories in another snap election

Right now id say it would be another hung parliament.

Looking at how small so many of the majorities are it would be a very unpredictable GE and could see a huge swing in seats (either way) on the smallest of margins (voter turnout, constituency make up etc).
Kensington went to Labour by 20........20!
I think I heard somewhere in Scotland with 3 (although that could be whole electorate in some places!)

 

[Gutter Boy]

But not as easy as motivating an OAP vote against fictitious threats.

Corbyn doesn't come out of the election any more part of the establishment than he went into. From here he needs to strengthen the front bench keep the popular pledges to scrap tuition fees and put more money into public services and let the Conservatives carry on being crap.

The tuition fee pledge gets more expensive every year. Right now it's £70b. But that increases by £11b every year. Does Corbyn really want to spend more than 10% of the entire government's budget (the NHS only gets 17% pa) on something that's already being funded elsewhere.

The reality is that the state funded 13% of the population going to university. That became unworkable when that rose to 33% (when Labour first introduced fees in the late 90s). Now with more than 50% going, the only way for it to be state funded is to cut numbers. Close universities and reduce places. Damaging social mobility and our skills levels.

I don't support the current system at all. But the solution is a graduate tax, where debt isn't tied to individuals (rather they just pay an extra 1% on income tax for life).

 

[milo]

All in all it would be nice to take a step forward at some stage.

It's as if we're preparing for the World Cup (Brexit) by spending 12 months in the dentist chair. This is the biggest negotiation in my lifetime and will affect the next generation as well.

IMO Brexit needs to be sectioned off, ringfenced from being a political football, and cross party discussion around getting a team together that can do us justice, whether that be Davies, Cable etc. There were remainers/leavers within all parties so it's not as though any party would be conceding anything.
May has f.cked us by starting the clock and then effing up royally.

Time is of the essence and we need to get a wriggle on as B-day approaches and we look as weak and disorganised as England vs Iceland.

I agree. The government should have taken a consensual approach last summer and tried to bring the country back together. It chose to do the opposite. I still think that this approach can be taken but time is against us and it would require a complete about face by the government. The delay does not cause problems on this side, the EU27 will have prepared for May's hard Brexit, if we now ask for a Norway type solution they will need to consult on that and reach agreement amongst the 27.

 

[scaramanga]

I think that it will take a little more to shake off the perception of being incompetent bastards.

I would expect an incoming leader to prioritise spending on public services. I predict that there will be more than a whiff of Corbyn to the next Conservative manifesto.

I'd be surprised if they lean too far towards Corbyn. He had the easiest target he'll ever have to fight against and didn't get anywhere near a majority.

A convincing, likeable leader who can win back the lost conservative vote that May did so much damage to should take a comfortable majority at the next election. Hopefully enough to be able to ignore the loony backbenchers.

 

[Baleforce]

Yeah. They've brought down the last two Tory Prime Ministers.

I wouldn't put it like that.

I'd call them out, publicly challenge them, make those with right wing views admit it, the party will be what it will be.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Something else that might be a consideration. The constituency boundary reforms happen in 2018, so it will be well worth the Tories waiting till after then to fight the next election with that benefiting them.

 

[monkeybarry]

I think some will come back, maybe not all at once. He won't want to just discard people who stepped up when he needed them to, imo. Some of those names there will be easy -- Umunna was never really someone who was always mouthing off to the press for example. Clive Lewis is a Corbyn supporter, he just left the front bench because he had half an eye on the remain vote in his constituency. Corbyn apparently gets on quite well with Liz Kendall, even though she's at the other end of the spectrum, politically. Jess Phillips was too much yapping away negatively to the press, but on the other hand that'd show a big willingness to heal the divide.

As I say, the main thing for me is that they work towards the policies that have been campaigned on, ones that energised the youth vote and attracted red ukippers. Their job is to bring along more voters to these ideas and I think it can be done, particularly if they have a sensible plan for a softer Brexit.

Totally agree.
I think we'll see some of more fanciful and "extreme"(UK) socialist policies disappear in favour of a slight move towards the centre - they small adjustment should get people in the party and the electorate on side.

I do think we'll have another election this year/early next, unless the early Brexit negotiations going amazingly.

 

[Robspur12]

The dementia tax was meant to have been added to the manifesto at the last minute by Nick Timothy without the knowledge of the cabinet.

The is an issue with how we pay for the care of the elderly with an ageing population. One solution was by increasing the working population through immigration but that is off the table at the moment. Another is through taxation but this botched attempt means that no one will dare try it again for a while. The fairest solution is a slight increase in inheritance tax but no one seems to have the courage to suggest it.

The fairest solution is that people who have the means have to contribute to their care for as long as possible. It's what happens in many other countries. People are Tory when it comes to paying more tax but want the state to protect their inheritance. The Tories were at at least willing to discuss it if ham fistedly. The other parties bury their heads in the social care sand.