Politics, politics, politics

[scaramanga]

Except they were the only pollster whose polls showed a Hung Parliament...

I know your right-wing mindset can't comprehend it, but the youth vote and former Labour voting Ukipers voted for Corbyn's manifesto and this changed the face of the election.

Disagree all you want but it is staring you in the face.

Again, the data say otherwise. Unless the young were suddenly spurred into voting for Corbyn on the same day as the Conservative manifesto for some entirely unrelated reason.

The far more likely scenario is that younger voters would have answered Labour when polled all along, they're certainly all been claiming so on Facebook. The swing started on the day the Conservatives published their manifesto.

As for Survation, whilst they got the seats reasonably close, they were wrong on the vote share - their final survey only had half of the Conservative lead on share of the vote. And we have to use vote share when tracking the timeline as that's the only data available over time.

 

[the dza]

this aint dead poets society

Got to hand it to Corbyn he got the youth out. Credit were it is due the turn around in 6 weeks was amazing. May was bad and Corbyn good. I wonder if a more central Labour leader could have won.

We can never know for sure, but I think the Red Ukip vote would have gone very badly for Labour with a more centrist, very pro-EU leader.

I feel that the left of the party have been vindicated and I think that if we have another election in the near future (which will surely happen) then we can win it.

 

[scaramanga]

she could do what she wanted - now was the time to do all the unpopular things they really wanted to do but you cannot do with a credible opposition. They really thought they were walking it regardless of what they put in. Most people thought this was the case as well, just go back a month in this thread.

I imagine (it's true in my case) that people saying she could do anything meant withing the realms of what a good Conservative government does. I don't think anyone was suggesting she pull out a failed Labour manifesto on us.

 

[r-u-s-x]

Again, the data say otherwise. Unless the young were suddenly spurred into voting for Corbyn on the same day as the Conservative manifesto for some entirely unrelated reason.

The far more likely scenario is that younger voters would have answered Labour when polled all along, they're certainly all been claiming so on Facebook. The swing started on the day the Conservatives published their manifesto.

As for Survation, whilst they got the seats reasonably close, they were wrong on the vote share - their final survey only had half of the Conservative lead on share of the vote. And we have to use vote share when tracking the timeline as that's the only data available over time.

Are Polls a reliable indicator?

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Can't believe that 5 live just read out a comment from a listener ' the only way we can get strong and stable leadership for this country is if we put the two Mike's in charge'

Talksh!te will love that.

Although getting Porky to negotiate Brexit might be a winner......with his fruit loop relentless grind down

 

[the dza]

Again, the data say otherwise. Unless the young were suddenly spurred into voting for Corbyn on the same day as the Conservative manifesto for some entirely unrelated reason.

The far more likely scenario is that younger voters would have answered Labour when polled all along, they're certainly all been claiming so on Facebook. The swing started on the day the Conservatives published their manifesto.

As for Survation, whilst they got the seats reasonably close, they were wrong on the vote share - their final survey only had half of the Conservative lead on share of the vote. And we have to use vote share when tracking the timeline as that's the only data available over time.

Well, I don't agree at all with your analysis of the data -- not for the first (or last!) time we'll have to agree to disagree.

On a different note, surely May has to go? I'll be delighted if she clings to power by her fingernails, because I think that would be bad for the Tory party and good for Labour come the next election.

 

[r-u-s-x]

I imagine (it's true in my case) that people saying she could do anything meant withing the realms of what a good Conservative government does. I don't think anyone was suggesting she pull out a failed Labour manifesto on us.

It was not a Labour manifesto

It removed the restrictions that they had in the last manifesto - they wanted to remove the triple lock, they wanted to be able to increase national insurance on self employed etc.

 

[the dza]

Farron on TV now, I think he's trying to outdo May in the delusional stakes.

 

[scaramanga]

Are Polls a reliable indicator?

I think when they all show a trend at the same time in the same direction they are.

They're not great for quantifying, but they're very useful at showing trends.

 

[parklane1]

Well, well well once again the bright folks were wrong again. I posted this below last month when most "bright" folks thought Corbyn would get murdered in the polls.



stranger things have happened over the last 5 years or so. The so called bright folks said a few things that have not transpired.

(1) UKIP would not win any seats in the Local elections of 5 years back, guess what the not only won seats they took control of some councils.

(2) Corbyn would never gets enough votes to win the leadership of his party ( he has done it twice now)

(3) The vote for leaving the EU would be a remain vote ( guess what the were wrong)

(4) Trump would never win the vote to become President ( guess what they were wrong again).

All these things happened because folks were fed up and wanted change, so whose to say it will not happen again?

The good thing for May is that she may attract voters from the other parties who want to make sure that Brexit happens the way she said it will.

Of course he never won but he made a few look really foolish with some of their comments about him, sooner or later some folks are going to have to get their heads out of the sand, take a look around their closed lives and see that there are big areas of civilisation that are getting sick to death of the " Staus Quo' and demand change.

 

[scaramanga]

Well, I don't agree at all with your analysis of the data -- not for the first (or last!) time we'll have to agree to disagree.

On a different note, surely May has to go? I'll be delighted if she clings to power by her fingernails, because I think that would be bad for the Tory party and good for Labour come the next election.

I hope she'll stay until conference season, give the party a chance to have a proper discussion about what it stands for and who can take them there.

I think Cameron and Osborne showed that there's enough appetite in the country for a socially and economically liberal government (May is neither) and someone standing on those grounds, with Brexit on top would have secured a large majority.

The best thing I can take from this election is that the Conservatives will be rid of May and that Labour will be stuck with Corbyn.

 

[scaramanga]

It was not a Labour manifesto

It removed the restrictions that they had in the last manifesto - they wanted to remove the triple lock, they wanted to be able to increase national insurance on self employed etc.

She wanted to increase tax, interfere with the energy markets, interfere with personal privacy.

Those have been big Labour policies over the last decade or so.

 

[Parklaner81]

We can never know for sure, but I think the Red Ukip vote would have gone very badly for Labour with a more centrist, very pro-EU leader.

I feel that the left of the party have been vindicated and I think that if we have another election in the near future (which will surely happen) then we can win it.

Very much agree with the first part of this post. It's seems obvious now, yet no one called it beforehand.

Not so sure on the second...

 

[Parklaner81]

The best thing I can take from this election is.....

Me old mate north o' the border taking a kicking...

 

[the dza]

I think this is the first time I've ever felt sorry for the queen, knowing she has to deal with May gurning at her for ten minutes.

 

[r-u-s-x]

She wanted to increase tax, interfere with the energy markets, interfere with personal privacy.

Those have been big Labour policies over the last decade or so.

Cutting public services, not sufficiently funding NHS, interfering with personal privacy have been big Tory policies over the last decade or so - Cherry picking policies you don't agree with to point to the cause of the loss does not make it correct. Where did the angry Tory votes go - did they vote for Corbyn instead?

I know a couple of traditional Tory voters (anecdotal I know), Father in Law voted Libs due to Brexit and a couple of teachers voted Labour due to cuts. Neither were fussed by "Labour" policy and even if they were who do they vote for Libs or Labour?

 

[Baleforce]

I think this is the first time I've ever felt sorry for the queen, knowing she has to deal with May gurning at her for ten minutes.

a rare excuse for her to bum a smoke though

 

[scaramanga]

Cutting public services, Cutting tax, interfering with personal privacy have been big Tory policies over the last decade or so - Cherry picking policies you don't agree with to point to the cause of the loss does not make it correct. Where did the angry Tory votes go - did they vote for Corbyn instead?

I think many stayed at home. Many, like me, will vote for anyone but May.

I don't actually care whether spending is increased or cut. If taxes are cut and spending is kept in check in line with that principle I (and probably most conservatives) couldn't care about the rest.

 

[r-u-s-x]

I think many stayed at home. Many, like me, will vote for anyone but May.

I don't actually care whether spending is increased or cut. If taxes are cut and spending is kept in check in line with that principle I (and probably most conservatives) couldn't care about the rest.

that's why you voted the way you did - but you are ... special. Most who would be bothered by the "Labour policies" would be more alarmed by the thought of the Trotsky getting in and still vote in Tories as the lesser of evils, that's certainly the impression I got when discussing this. Very few are as "principled" as you are in this and would not cut their nose off to spite their face.

 

[the dza]

Seems the good socialists of Kensington might have voted for Labour haha.