Politics, politics, politics

[the dza]

Labour are 7/1 to win. That's very long for a two horse race.

I think Corbyn has performed well and will be secure in his position after defeat. He probably won't go to 2022 because of his age, but I imagine he will see out Brexit and make the socialists' grip on the party more secure before he anoints a successor.

Labour surely won't "win" but a hung parliament is 3/1. Still an outside bet, but not impossible.

 

[Gutter Boy]

If by the small chance Labour get in - I give it 2 years before another leadership challenge before the party breaking up after Corbyn wins it. I like public services and I don't think they can stand another 5 years of May but think a Corbyn government will be a bit of a disaster.

There's no money for a Labour government to work. Blair could redistribute/throw money at the public sector because of the strong economy of 1992-7.

A government based on this manifesto would be better in 5 years once Brexit is done and the economy booming. At this point in time though they'd just bankrupt the country in weeks.

I work in a very high performing sector that Corbyn wants to turn public. We are world-leading and completely sustainable at the moment (road out austerity like no other), but under state control we would be severely cut

 

[Parklaner81]

No chance of a breakaway in the Labour Party imo, whatever the result. If they were gonna do that, they would have done it after the attempted 'coup' last time. The Labour brand is too strong under a fptp system, it's too difficult for a breakaway party to achieve anything.

I'm not so sure. Don't forget they were expecting Corbyn to be completely annihilated in the election just a few weeks ago. They may well have imagined that such an occurrence would 'do their job' for them. If, as appears likely, he emerges relatively stronger they may feel that they have no option but to act.

 

[the dza]

There's no money for a Labour government to work. Blair could redistribute/throw money at the public sector because of the strong economy of 1992-7.

A government based on this manifesto would be better in 5 years once Brexit is done and the economy booming. At this point in time though they'd just bankrupt the country in weeks.

Even the IFS, critical of both manifestos, do say that Labour's proposed tax changes could bring in an extra £40billion per year (still a shortfall from Labour's calculations, granted, Labour calculate £49billion). But please don't pretend that Labour's proposed tax changes will raise no extra money that can be spent on the things set out in their manifesto.

 

[milo]

Certainly possible. We're only gonna know when they give us the exit poll I suppose. I have no clue how this election will go. I plump for Hung Parliament more out of hope than expectation, but I have no idea. There is polling which supports all different outcomes at the moment.

I don't think Corbyn would stay on as leader for too much longer should Labour lose. But he will take the party to conference and get the leadership candidacy rules changed imo, so as to prevent the PLP from not allowing any left wingers on the ballot.

The polls with a narrower Conservative lead are basing this on a very high turn our amongst the under 25s and people who did not vote in 2015. I'm not saying that this won't happen, a significant increase would be a vindication of Corbyn's approach but I've always thought that as an approach to an election it was a bit like making a car advert aimed at people who do not drive.

I agree that Corbyn will try and stay on until after the conference to change the leadership rules. I think that this would be a mistake. A leader needs the support of their parliamentary colleagues and the membership to be successful.

 

[milo]

A government based on this manifesto would be better in 5 years once Brexit is done and the economy booming. At this point in time though they'd just bankrupt the country in weeks.

Can you point me towards anyone reputable who is projecting post Brexit growth on those kind of timescales?

I doubt that we will even have a trade deal agreed with the EU by the end of the next parliament and we are unlikely to get significant deals done with other countries until after this is settled.

Even then we have to factor in the cost of reduced access to the single market and the end of freedom of movement and it starts looking very expensive over the next decade.

 

[the dza]

The polls with a narrower Conservative lead are basing this on a very high turn our amongst the under 25s and people who did not vote in 2015. I'm not saying that this won't happen, a significant increase would be a vindication of Corbyn's approach but I've always thought that as an approach to an election it was a bit like making a car advert aimed at people who do not drive.

I agree that Corbyn will try and stay on until after the conference to change the leadership rules. I think that this would be a mistake. A leader needs the support of their parliamentary colleagues and the membership to be successful.

IIRC (from reading the various threads on uk polling report) the levels of turnout among under 25s those polls are using is 2010 levels, as opposed to 2015* levels. I don't think it's based on anything outlandish. Some of these pollsters have to be wrong though, so we'll just have to wait and find out.

I don't think it's a mistake to ensure that all sections of the Labour party would be represented in a leadership slate. Normally this is the case, but the Blairites assumed the left would never actually win a leadership contest, so will ensure a stitch-up next time under current rules. They might try getting a candidate who actually has some ideas and can win support, but I won't hold my breath.

*edited for typo

 

[spitshine]

Bottom line is, where does the money come from? everyone wants better education and health and better transport etc etc so where does the money come from for social care for the elderly. I agree about inheritance tax, I paid in all my life and do not want what money I have left going to the tax man when I die. But where does all the money come from for all the things people want.

Also reading that personal debt is growing at record levels which is going to bite at some point. The was a credit boom before the last crash and it is happening again with people getting in stupid leasing agreements on cars that they clearly can not afford.

Credit card spending according to the papers went to a record high £68.1 billion last month a 9.7 per cent rise on the previous year. Think more should have been made of this in the election. But I have an old fashioned attitude towards money.

Absolutely, the IHT threshold increase should go even further as it's an awful tax, especially here in london where due to house price increases, has unintentionally caught more
but probably not the demographic the tax was orignally intended for.

I am of a similar opinion having been brought up on the mantra that you can't spend more than you earn. Yes, i read the otehr day about the boom that is currently causing concern is the car leasing(PCP) in particular. But people need to realise nothing is free, although I think many are influenced by the sustained low interest rates.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

Absolutely, the IHT threshold increase should go even further as it's an awful tax, especially here in london where due to house price increases, has unintentionally caught more
but probably not the demographic the tax was orignally intended for.

I am of a similar opinion having been brought up on the mantra that you can't spend more than you earn. Yes, i read the otehr day about the boom that is currently causing concern is the car leasing(PCP) in particular. But people need to realise nothing is free, although I think many are influenced by the sustained low interest rates.

I think car leasing debt are going to become huge problems, I probably read the same article as you. Think more should be done in schools to teach about economics, think then the population might have more realistic aims about what they can expect the government to pay for. I like Corbyn I really do, but it is the economics of Labour that bothers me.

Corbyn seems to finally come round to shooting terrorists, but to quote Clinton It is the economy stupid. I just do not believe in Corbyn and Labour on the economy.

 

[Gutter Boy]

The polls with a narrower Conservative lead are basing this on a very high turn our amongst the under 25s and people who did not vote in 2015. I'm not saying that this won't happen, a significant increase would be a vindication of Corbyn's approach but I've always thought that as an approach to an election it was a bit like making a car advert aimed at people who do not drive.

I agree that Corbyn will try and stay on until after the conference to change the leadership rules. I think that this would be a mistake. A leader needs the support of their parliamentary colleagues and the membership to be successful.

It's going to rain on Thursday, which might affect less determined voters

Another thing of note is that universities have now broken up (different to the usual early May elections). This means students will be back at their parents' houses. That's 2.3m voters being in different constituencies. This might help the inner city Labour vote (students tend to be more Greens or Liberals) and harm the Tories in the home counties.

 

[Parklaner81]

It's going to rain on Thursday, which might affect less determined voters

Another thing of note is that universities have now broken up (different to the usual early May elections). This means students will be back at their parents' houses. That's 2.3m voters being in different constituencies. This might help the inner city Labour vote (students tend to be more Greens or Liberals) and harm the Tories in the home counties.

Might this be a problem for them if they're registered to vote at their term-time address...?

 

[Gutter Boy]

Can you point me towards anyone reputable who is projecting post Brexit growth on those kind of timescales?

I doubt that we will even have a trade deal agreed with the EU by the end of the next parliament and we are unlikely to get significant deals done with other countries until after this is settled.

Even then we have to factor in the cost of reduced access to the single market and the end of freedom of movement and it starts looking very expensive over the next decade.

I guess it depends on the measures. I'm not a capitalist, so would consider things like no deficit, national debt reduction, economy rebalanced from financial services to industrial and south to north, high R&D and infrastructure expenditure, fuel security (100% renewables, nuclear and north-sea gas)and a slowly naturally decreasing population as booming.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Might this be a problem for them if they're registered to vote at their term-time address...?

Potentially. Though I think you get voting cards and both and can use only one (my partner has for both places she is registered)?

 

[Parklaner81]

Potentially. Though I think you get voting cards and both and can use only one (my partner has for both places she is registered)?

Actually though thinking about it, exams are still going on. A lot will still be at uni. That might potentially give them the opposite problem, but of course it's entirely their own responsibility either way...

 

[milo]

IIRC (from reading the various threads on uk polling report) the levels of turnout among under 25s those polls are using is 2010 levels, as opposed to 2015* levels. I don't think it's based on anything outlandish. Some of these pollsters have to be wrong though, so we'll just have to wait and find out.

I don't think it's a mistake to ensure that all sections of the Labour party would be represented in a leadership slate. Normally this is the case, but the Blairites assumed the left would never actually win a leadership contest, so will ensure a stitch-up next time under current rules. They might try getting a candidate who actually has some ideas and can win support, but I won't hold my breath.

*edited for typo

The assumptions seem reasonable but so do those made by the polling companies who have a bigger Conservative lead.

The Tories have run an awful campaign, I have an idea of how that is playing out in London and some of the major cities but I don't have a clue about how it is being received in traditional Labour industrial heartland seats. Polling these from before the election was poor for Corbyn and they voted predominantly for Brexit. If the Labour spike is just in the cities (where the young are concentrated) and doesn't cut through to non-metropolitan seats then they could be in for a walloping.

I don't think that there are many Blairites left in the PLP unless you use the definition of anyone to the right of Corbyn. I don't think that it particularly matters where on the political spectrum of the Labour Party the leader comes from. What matters is if they are a good communicator, can think coherently on their feet, can set a clear direction for where the party should go over the next five years and get the best talents in the PLP into the shadow cabinet and taking the fight to the government. That requires a mastery of brief and message discipline that has been missing for a while.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Actually though thinking about it, exams are still going on. A lot will still be at uni. That might potentially give them the opposite problem, but of course it's entirely their own responsibility either way...

Friday is the final day of (three weeks of) exams, but 80% are finished and gone already, maybe 90% by Thursday

 

[Parklaner81]

Potentially. Though I think you get voting cards and both and can use only one (my partner has for both places she is registered)?

I'm not sure that sounds right. Wouldn't it be a license to vote twice? If I recall how it works, you don't actually need to produce your card to vote. You simply have to be on the register at your alotted polling station (leaving aside postal voting of course). Which surely would have to be in one location only?

Friday is the final day of (three weeks of) exams, but 80% are finished and gone already, maybe 90% by Thursday

I think it varies by uni though. I'm not certain, but I think they're only just getting started at my uni, and it's a 4 week exam period. Lasting throughout June pretty much. I couldn't swear to that though, but I'm fairly sure.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Any betting on the turnout?

Wouldn't be surprised at sub 60% for this one.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

The assumptions seem reasonable but so do those made by the polling companies who have a bigger Conservative lead.

The Tories have run an awful campaign, I have an idea of how that is playing out in London and some of the major cities but I don't have a clue about how it is being received in traditional Labour industrial heartland seats. Polling these from before the election was poor for Corbyn and they voted predominantly for Brexit. If the Labour spike is just in the cities (where the young are concentrated) and doesn't cut through to non-metropolitan seats then they could be in for a walloping.

I don't think that there are many Blairites left in the PLP unless you use the definition of anyone to the right of Corbyn. I don't think that it particularly matters where on the political spectrum of the Labour Party the leader comes from. What matters is if they are a good communicator, can think coherently on their feet, can set a clear direction for where the party should go over the next five years and get the best talents in the PLP into the shadow cabinet and taking the fight to the government. That requires a mastery of brief and message discipline that has been missing for a while.

What I think is sad/weird/odd but with a middle of the road Labour leader they would have walked this election. Someone like that Chuka Umunna would have been a good leader. Maybe he will fight the next election as leader. I would be amazed if May is still around for the next election, not sure who would take over.

 

[the dza]

What I think is sad/weird/odd but with a middle of the road Labour leader they would have walked this election. Someone like that Chuka Umunna would have been a good leader. Maybe he will fight the next election as leader. I would be amazed if May is still around for the next election, not sure who would take over.

People say that, but it's not necessarily true. Middle of the road was to vote Remain, to vote Hilary Clinton, to vote for an established party in France. I think the core vote would get smashed under someone like Umunna in an election just after the Brexit decision.