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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

scaramanga said:
That was bad for the Conservatives (as expected mid election cycle) but I'd be pretty worried if I were Starmer.

Hardly storming growth for them and I'd be wanting a far higher predicted majority this far out to have any certainty of being elected.
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It's the position they should be in.
The current make up of the Commons is artificial - plenty of seats were a Brexit vote.
Labour don't deserve a majority as it stands.
The votes will be as much, probably moreso, anti Tory than pro Labour.
If it hadn't been for Brexit, the Johnson manipulation, the electing if Corbyn as a reaction to that and the Scots faith in Sturgeon, we'd have had a Lab-Lib coalition already.
I think we are close to being back to Status Quo.
Labour will get a one term free hit in some form.
 
scaramanga said:
That was bad for the Conservatives (as expected mid election cycle) but I'd be pretty worried if I were Starmer.

Hardly storming growth for them and I'd be wanting a far higher predicted majority this far out to have any certainty of being elected.
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Yep, Starmer is bricking himself I'm sure.

I'm not Starmer's biggest fan by a long shot. I think PR and the single market are open goals he is missing, but that aside, the Tories are authoritarians so on balance he would be good for the UK.
 
Baleforce said:
Surely the bigger point is that Lib Dem’s and Greens have gained so many too, it’s coordinated tactical voting against the Tories.

“Others” have had a bit of a shoeing as well. Hopefully the sign of a rejection of right wing politics.
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A lot of those votes were unhappy Conservative voters too.

That's the trouble with local elections, people use them to make a point. Many of them would never risk the reality of a Labour government, especially not one propped up by the SNP. Look at Windsor and Maidenhead - two of the nicest parts of the country. There's no way they will risk VAT on school fees or reductions in pension allowances.
 
Rorschach said:
Yep, Starmer is bricking himself I'm sure.

I'm not Starmer's biggest fan by a long shot. I think PR and the single market are open goals he is missing, but that aside, the Tories are authoritarians so on balance he would be good for the UK.
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The projection as is would be a hung parliament. Local elections are when the opposition will get its strongest mandate - before their spending plans are properly analysed, before the personal attacks, etc. This is likely Starmer's strongest point and it isn't looking like a majority.

The Conservatives are already taxing and spending more than any post war government. In order to differentiate his party, Starmer will have to make promises to make that even worse - that would be incredibly damaging to the country.

You're right that this lot are authoritarians, but it's naive to think that a Labour party would be any better. Half of that party is still hard left.
 
scaramanga said:
The projection as is would be a hung parliament. Local elections are when the opposition will get its strongest mandate - before their spending plans are properly analysed, before the personal attacks, etc. This is likely Starmer's strongest point and it isn't looking like a majority.

The Conservatives are already taxing and spending more than any post war government. In order to differentiate his party, Starmer will have to make promises to make that even worse - that would be incredibly damaging to the country.

You're right that this lot are authoritarians, but it's naive to think that a Labour party would be any better. Half of that party is still hard left.
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It's sad but often we get too a stage of 'anyone but', and the current conservative party have pushed that needle way beyond anything we've seen before, on multiple levels.

So policy, manifestos will matter on the margins, as polite conversations etc but all the Tories can hope for, is a voter to stay at home, as any voter that goes to the box cannot vote for them.
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
It's sad but often we get too a stage of 'anyone but', and the current conservative party have pushed that needle way beyond anything we've seen before, on multiple levels.

So policy, manifestos will matter on the margins, as polite conversations etc but all the Tories can hope for, is a voter to stay at home, as any voter that goes to the box cannot vote for them.
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That's true, but anyone earning over around £60k or with children in fee paying schools will have to vote Conservative.

That's probably the majority of the actively voting electorate.
 
Rorschach said:
Yep, Starmer is bricking himself I'm sure.

I'm not Starmer's biggest fan by a long shot. I think PR and the single market are open goals he is missing, but that aside, the Tories are authoritarians so on balance he would be good for the UK.
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These are interesting:
Single Market - no one is going to go full alignment, it would be political suicide and very quickly turned into an "anti democratic" furore.
But gradual and closer alignment will happen, under the guise of "growing the economy". What's the best way to ensure good growth figures? Destroy what you had, start again and ignore history.
As we closer align with the EU again we'll end up with the Brexit that was talked about - the Norway option. And the extreme voices will have gone away.

PR - I think the Lib Dems will make a big thing of this.
Labour are very likely to find themselves with three choices:
Lab-Lib and having to address PR
Lab-SNP and having to address Independence
Lab minority - at which point it's political bartering on every issue or it's a confidence pact.

Tories out will be good.
What remains is going to be tricky.
 
scaramanga said:
That's true, but anyone earning over around £60k or with children in fee paying schools will have to vote Conservative.

That's probably the majority of the actively voting electorate.
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Which country do you live in? Because it's not this one.
Avg wage is just over £30k.
Top 1% is probably only around 120k
 
Mikey10 said:
That’s 7% of the electorate, 95% of whom have probably always voted Conservative. As did their parents. As did their parents’ parents…
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In fact, if you go back a few more generations you'll get to the original 2 conservatives from which all the rest have descended.
 
monkeybarry said:
Which country do you live in? Because it's not this one.
Avg wage is just over £30k.
Top 1% is probably only around 120k
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How many at the bottom end of the scale are reliable voters?

I suspect it's a far greater part of the actively voting electorate than it is a proportion of the country as a whole.

Don't forget that any figures like that will be well out of date by now. Wage inflation has been huge for the last couple of years. Plenty of people who didn't have to worry about Labour governments now do.
 
Mikey10 said:
That’s 7% of the electorate, 95% of whom have probably always voted Conservative. As did their parents. As did their parents’ parents…
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Looking at some of the local election results, I suspect many of them didn't vote Conservative as a protest vote.

In a GE they will have to.
 
scaramanga said:
Looking at some of the local election results, I suspect many of them didn't vote Conservative as a protest vote.

In a GE they will have to.
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Maybe, or they can just vote Labour who are looking more like milquetoast tories with each passing day. It seems Labour are more than willing to retain most of the heinous bills the Tories have been passing including the stasi-esque antiprotest bill. Whoever is advising Labour on election strategy needs to give their head a wobble. Appealing to the worst instincts of the Tory's base is not a net vote winner. If it was then the Tory poll numbers would be better. All labour is doing is shedding their own voters.
 
Rorschach said:
Maybe, or they can just vote Labour who are looking more like milquetoast tories with each passing day. It seems Labour are more than willing to retain most of the heinous bills the Tories have been passing including the stasi-esque antiprotest bill. Whoever is advising Labour on election strategy needs to give their head a wobble. Appealing to the worst instincts of the Tory's base is not a net vote winner. If it was then the Tory poll numbers would be better. All labour is doing is shedding their own voters.
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You win elections by peeling away the moderates from the opposition - you don't usually have to worry about your own flank (maybe UKIP aside). I just hope Starmer is going to move properly on de-neo-liberalisation once he's in power. I kind of have faith in that while Milliband is still his main policy guide.

Electorally I think Labour lost a lot of votes to Greens and maybe Liberals last week in areas where they've been running council (local issues like bins, trees, closing roads etc.). But all of that local protest will roll in behind them in a national election.
 
Rorschach said:
Maybe, or they can just vote Labour who are looking more like milquetoast tories with each passing day. It seems Labour are more than willing to retain most of the heinous bills the Tories have been passing including the stasi-esque antiprotest bill. Whoever is advising Labour on election strategy needs to give their head a wobble. Appealing to the worst instincts of the Tory's base is not a net vote winner. If it was then the Tory poll numbers would be better. All labour is doing is shedding their own voters.
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The ones you're thinking of always have and always will vote Conservative.

I'm talking about those who vote Conservative because Labour would fudge their finances/savings/pension/business. They can't vote Labour or (as many seem to have done in the local elections) vote Lib Dem. Look at Windsor and Maidenhead - two hugely safe Conservative seats who voted in a LD council. Those people won't vote LD at a real election as they don't want or can't afford a Labour govt.
 
Gutter Boy said:
You win elections by peeling away the moderates from the opposition - you don't usually have to worry about your own flank (maybe UKIP aside). I just hope Starmer is going to move properly on de-neo-liberalisation once he's in power. I kind of have faith in that while Milliband is still his main policy guide.

Electorally I think Labour lost a lot of votes to Greens and maybe Liberals last week in areas where they've been running council (local issues like bins, trees, closing roads etc.). But all of that local protest will roll in behind them in a national election.
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Winning elections is not that simple. If you demotivate your own base in order to fish for so called 'moderate' votes you are dead in the water. Attacking the tories on their record is about as easy as it gets. There is no need for labour to trend too far right.

For example, the largely negative press around the unwarranted arrests yesterday for the coronation is political gold. This precrime flimflam could be spun into swathes of political capital but they are running from it, and seamlessly adopting the right-wing framing of the events. It is the left's natural inclination to adopt a defensive posture in order not to alienate mythical swing voters but far better to call this out for what it is, a criminalisation of protests.

There was a large amount of tactical voting in the local elections so drawing inferences from it for a general election is risky. Maybe labour will pivot if they get in, I hope they do both.
 
scaramanga said:
The ones you're thinking of always have and always will vote Conservative.

I'm talking about those who vote Conservative because Labour would fudge their finances/savings/pension/business. They can't vote Labour or (as many seem to have done in the local elections) vote Lib Dem. Look at Windsor and Maidenhead - two hugely safe Conservative seats who voted in a LD council. Those people won't vote LD at a real election as they don't want or can't afford a Labour govt.
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Conservatives being good custodians of the economy is a myth that is finally being exposed for the nonsense it is. If some voters are still too myopic to see that now then they never will.
 
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