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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

markysimmo said:
People have now had enough of these bell-pieces

https://twitter.com/x/status/1448203143049789442
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I really don't get what they think they will achieve? The vast majority of people are sympathetic with tackling climate change and helping the environment but they need to work. Pay rent etc... this just tinkles them off and makes them less sympathetic. It is counter productive. The head of extinction rebellion saying he'd block an ambulance carrying a dying patient. What message does that send?

I swear a lot of these don't give a fudge about their cause (which ever one that is), they are just anarchists that want to cause trouble. Or are professionals paid to. The money coming from sources that just want to see western economy/society suffer.
 
Lilbaz said:
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/1012/1253151-uk-jobless-figures/

Unemployment falling, wages booming.

We are probably looking at a world recession coming though. Chinas evergrande issues that may cause it's housing bubble to burst. The energy crisis, with china and india suffering massive blackouts. The bottle necks of supply chains and massive hike in costs of shipping. Things might get bad.
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I'd be cautious about unemployment coming down and booming wages. The reasons why aren't because of a buoyant economy.

PS...the Evergrande situation is cliff edge stuff.
 
Lilbaz said:
I really don't get what they think they will achieve? The vast majority of people are sympathetic with tackling climate change and helping the environment but they need to work. Pay rent etc... this just tinkles them off and makes them less sympathetic. It is counter productive. The head of extinction rebellion saying he'd block an ambulance carrying a dying patient. What message does that send?

I swear a lot of these don't give a fudge about their cause (which ever one that is), they are just anarchists that want to cause trouble. Or are professionals paid to. The money coming from sources that just want to see western economy/society suffer.
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I haven't really looked into their claims but building regs have been stuffed full of insulation requirements for years. The green/eco grants have given nearly every house access to free wall and/or loft insulation, and poorer families access to an even wider spectrum of improvements.
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
I'd be cautious about unemployment coming down and booming wages. The reasons why aren't because of a buoyant economy.

PS...the Evergrande situation is cliff edge stuff.
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It's because due to brexit our labour market is limited to the uk not the whole of europe. Meaning that we are reaching full employment. Demand for labour is higher than supply pushing wages up to levels where they should have been years ago. It puts the lie to all the claims that immigration didn't suppress wages.
Companies will have to adjust to the new reality and invest in the uk workforce and productivity. More investment will probably be made in automation.
 
Lilbaz said:
It's because due to brexit our labour market is limited to the uk not the whole of europe. Meaning that we are reaching full employment. Demand for labour is higher than supply pushing wages up to levels where they should have been years ago. It puts the lie to all the claims that immigration didn't suppress wages.
Companies will have to adjust to the new reality and invest in the uk workforce and productivity. More investment will probably be made in automation.
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It's amazing no one else is doing this. So simple, everyone gets richer, everyone employed. We'll ignore inflation may hit 4% by end of the year though, so any rise in wages would have to be above that to actually be meaningful.
2ww4n2.png
 
Diamond Lights said:
It's amazing no one else is doing this. So simple, everyone gets richer, everyone employed. We'll ignore inflation may hit 4% by end of the year though, so any rise in wages would have to be above that to actually be meaningful.
2ww4n2.png
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Not ignoring inflation and it will need to be dealt with, but wages are rising faster.
Much of the inflation is down to supply shortages due to covid and high energy prices. These are both short term.

Brexit will cause massive issues no doubt. But thinking one side is all good and can do no wrong while the other is evil incarnate is gonads. Look at both perspectives, get more than one source of information. It might give you a more balanced view of the world and you might not be as surprised when people don't vote your way.
 
Lilbaz said:
It's because due to brexit our labour market is limited to the uk not the whole of europe. Meaning that we are reaching full employment. Demand for labour is higher than supply pushing wages up to levels where they should have been years ago. It puts the lie to all the claims that immigration didn't suppress wages.
Companies will have to adjust to the new reality and invest in the uk workforce and productivity. More investment will probably be made in automation.
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Exactly what I'm saying. Cart before the horse.

In a thriving economy, with growth companies, increased productivity etc wealth is created that can be distributed in new jobs, promotions and wage rises.

There is none of that going on here. Market forces are driving the increase, it's the last thing that many firms who have had 2 torrid years and propped up by furlough really want to be facing...an inflated wage bill. It's an increased cost with no certainty of increased revenue.

Politically it'll be claimed as 'full employment'' and 'wage growth' but it's sadly it's nothing to be shouting about.
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
Exactly what I'm saying. Cart before the horse.

In a thriving economy, with growth companies, increased productivity etc wealth is created that can be distributed in new jobs, promotions and wage rises.

There is none of that going on here. Market forces are driving the increase, it's the last thing that many firms who have had 2 torrid years and propped up by furlough really want to be facing...an inflated wage bill. It's an increased cost with no certainty of increased revenue.

Politically it'll be claimed as 'full employment'' and 'wage growth' but it's sadly it's nothing to be shouting about.
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Funny how right wing the left can become when talking about this. Justifying low wages for the good of business profit margins. lol.

People have more money they can spend more. Businesses make more profit. More taxes. Less unemployment means less of a tax burden. Less of a tax burden can lead to lower taxes meaning people have more money to spend... obviously covid stifles this a bit.

Wages have been surpressed for years by unlimited supply of cheap labour from the eu. It has also stifled productivity. Businesses will now have to invest more in their workforce and become more productive. There may be short term pain but in the long term we will be better off. We are also entering the 4th industrial revolution. Automation is going to kick off big time. As a country we will need to be prepared for that.
 
Lilbaz said:
Funny how right wing the left can become when talking about this. Justifying low wages for the good of business profit margins. lol.

People have more money they can spend more. Businesses make more profit. More taxes. Less unemployment means less of a tax burden. Less of a tax burden can lead to lower taxes meaning people have more money to spend... obviously covid stifles this a bit.

Wages have been surpressed for years by unlimited supply of cheap labour from the eu. It has also stifled productivity. Businesses will now have to invest more in their workforce and become more productive. There may be short term pain but in the long term we will be better off. We are also entering the 4th industrial revolution. Automation is going to kick off big time. As a country we will need to be prepared for that.
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That's the route we're taking. Both parties appear to be fighting over who can artificially prop up the highest wage levels so we're investing in plant that now works out cheaper than employing people.

It's the only logical result to wages getting too high. Most people don't seem to see that though.
 
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Lilbaz said:
People have more money they can spend more. Businesses make more profit. More taxes. Less unemployment means less of a tax burden. Less of a tax burden can lead to lower taxes meaning people have more money to spend... obviously covid stifles this a bit.
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If personal and business costs go up across the board, especially before the 'good times' arrive, Good luck with that. Inflation can be (and is) a problem. Price rises are sticky We have som e wriggle room with interest rates if we need to keep a lid on it BUT a return to the mean would not be pretty.

Lilbaz said:
Wages have been surpressed for years by unlimited supply of cheap labour from the eu. It has also stifled productivity. Businesses will now have to invest more in
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The whys of stagnant productivity has always been a tough nut to crack. Are you saying surpressed wages or cheap EU labour are stifling it?
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
]


If personal and business costs go up across the board, especially before the 'good times' arrive, Good luck with that. Inflation can be (and is) a problem. Price rises are sticky We have som e wriggle room with interest rates if we need to keep a lid on it BUT a return to the mean would not be pretty.


The whys of stagnant productivity has always been a tough nut to crack. Are you saying surpressed wages or cheap EU labour are stifling it?
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As i've said wages are rising faster than inflation, people have more money.

Yes i'm saying that cheap wages have meant companies have less need of investing in new technologies such as automation. The incentive isn't there. As you do not get the returns in the short term. As it's an upfront cost. Especially with covid and shutdown they will be more likely to.
 
Lilbaz said:
As i've said wages are rising faster than inflation, people have more money.
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Despite the clamour from business, real-time data still suggest that only a few people are getting a big pay rise — chiefly in areas most exposed to the sudden stop in migration from the EU. The median advertised hourly wage for heavy goods vehicle drivers rose 15 per cent between January and September, according to the job site Indeed, but across all job postings, advertised pay rates rose just 1.3 per cent. The BoE’s agents found a similar divergence in pay awards for existing employees — with increases of 10-40 per cent for skills in short supply, but typical settlements around 2-3 per cent. For public sector workers, hit by the government’s pay freeze, even that is out of reach.
 
Diamond Lights said:
Despite the clamour from business, real-time data still suggest that only a few people are getting a big pay rise — chiefly in areas most exposed to the sudden stop in migration from the EU. The median advertised hourly wage for heavy goods vehicle drivers rose 15 per cent between January and September, according to the job site Indeed, but across all job postings, advertised pay rates rose just 1.3 per cent. The BoE’s agents found a similar divergence in pay awards for existing employees — with increases of 10-40 per cent for skills in short supply, but typical settlements around 2-3 per cent. For public sector workers, hit by the government’s pay freeze, even that is out of reach.
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I'm guessing the 1.5% is accounting for inflation. If so it will tie in with other reports. Example https://www.ft.com/content/e0c7a35e-9ebd-4a87-a842-1d044bf07947 or https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...e of annual pay,our blog: Beware Base Effects. Or https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/bank-overground/2021/how-strong-is-pay-growth

Bit cheeky they don't mention that. Wonder why?
 
Lilbaz said:
It's because due to brexit our labour market is limited to the uk not the whole of europe. Meaning that we are reaching full employment. Demand for labour is higher than supply pushing wages up to levels where they should have been years ago. It puts the lie to all the claims that immigration didn't suppress wages.
Companies will have to adjust to the new reality and invest in the uk workforce and productivity. More investment will probably be made in automation.
Click to expand...

Economies and workers' conditions do boom when the populations drop. Dramatic examples, but England the generation after the Black Death and Ireland the generation after the potatoes famine were very good times for all the survivors.
 
Gutter Boy said:
Economies and workers' conditions do boom when the populations drop. Dramatic examples, but England the generation after the Black Death and Ireland the generation after the potatoes famine were very good times for all the survivors.
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Um, what? Can you send me a link to something backing this claim up.

(edit: beyond that they weren't dead)
 
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Anyway going forward we will need to rethink the way we do things. Become far more self reliant, covid has seen how fragile our supply chains can be. Brexit also will see europe want to cut us off and make an example so others don't get ideas. But this opens oportunities aswell. We'll see far more links to the wider world. Aukus being the start canzuk, the pacific alliance. We are largely a service economy so distance isn't as much of a factor.

There will be tough times ahead, especially with decarbonising our economy. Just wish we had a competent party to vote for. They all seem brick. Although starmer clearing out momentum is a good start.
 
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