I'm not saying "throw it all away". I might have been unclear, I'm not sure. But that's certainly not what I meant.
No, you weren't, and I didn't mean to imply that. From my perspective, risking a loss against Fiorentina this early into our EL campaign is just doing ourselves a disservice which could have repercussions down the line.
So you're saying if we aim for 4th, we're more likely to get 4th, but if we aim for 1st were more likely to finish below 4th?
Not exactly. I'm suggesting that, if we focus on keeping our head down and securing what we have, one game at a time, we might end up with tangible gains in the league and a chance to progress in Europe, keeping up our European coefficient and keeping 4th spot out of the hands of those sneaky Serie A types.
If we say 'dash it all, 1st place or bust!' then every stumble becomes a disaster and eventual disappointment (which, despite all the optimism, is still very possible) seems worse than it is because of what will then be seen as 'avoidable' cup exits in a year when we could have won one.
It's just a perceptions thing, more than anything else.
Looking at the last dozen fixtures 100% sure 70pts will be enough for 4th. United and WHU would need to get 30pts out of the last 36 to eclipse that total. Just cant see any evidence either side could string a run like that together. I would even so as far to say 67pts will be enough. (If we continue to play to the standard we have done we could achieve that total before the Chelsea match)
With our GD, which I cant express enough how massive it could be this season, 71or 72pts might could secure 3rd, which in itself would be a great achievement in my eyes.
Anything above 3rd would be a dream
Sure, I agree. 70 points will be enough for 4th. Maybe even 67, although I wouldn't bank on that fact. And we need to get there in a workmanlike manner, which includes pushing the boat out in Europe too, at least to a certain extent: prioritizing the league when we're in two other competitions could be considered expeditious, but going out of two cups in a week doesn't exactly scream 'diversification' to me: it's more like putting all our eggs into the league title basket.
We'll have time to re-evaluate our participation in the EL around the quarter-finals, when we'll have a clearer idea of how our league position stands. If necessary, dropping it then, having buffed up the European coefficient and instilled more forward momentum, wouldn't be the worst thing if (if) we still looked capable of winning the league. But we can't make up for lost ground in cup competitions we're already out of, unlike in the league: and dropping it now, in late February, isn't too wise, imo.
