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Official - Holtby

Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

Rorschach said:
This is the key question.

For arguments sake lets assume he will arrive in this window. If he had arrived earlier and made the difference between one point or three, or even just one point when we were losing in just one game then 200k is nothing. If we were talking millions maybe there is an argument but in the PL you deal with such fine margins that a few hundred thousand is a gamble well worth taking.

If he's coming this window then just get him in now and stop messing around, is my opinion.
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That is way too simplistic.

I might as well say "what if he makes a mistake and costs us a point?" Then we've wasted 200k and cost us a point...

If a rational decision is to be made Levy (and AVB) would have to make some kind of estimate of how many points we would pick up on average in those games with Holtby and without Holtby. The difference on average is probably slightly positive (in favour of Holtby), but nowhere near 1 point. Looking at just one "what if" scenario and base a decision on that is really no better than flipping a coin and making a decision based on that.
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

jimmyb said:
How do you come to the conclusion that £1.6m is the "correct valuation"?

There is no such thing as a correct valuation. There is merely a valuation placed on a player by a selling club and a valuation placed on a player by a buying club. The two don't have to tally - at least, certainly not from the outset.

It is just as easy to claim that Schalke are being "very small time" by not accepting Spurs' £1.1m offer and, instead, haggling over a few hundred thousand. There's no difference.

The reality is that there is nothing wrong and nothing uncommon in what either Spurs or Schalke are doing. They are both working to secure the best possible deal for themselves. And that's as it should be. Still a week to go. If I was a betting man, I'd have a small punt on Holtby being a Spurs player by the end of the month and Schalke having in the region of £1.3 million in the bank. And both sides will be happy with the deal.
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I agree with all of that. If haggling to get a good deal for players we want to sell is small time then I would rather see us be small time.
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

braineclipse said:
That is way too simplistic.

I might as well say "what if he makes a mistake and costs us a point?" Then we've wasted 200k and cost us a point...

If a rational decision is to be made Levy (and AVB) would have to make some kind of estimate of how many points we would pick up on average in those games with Holtby and without Holtby. The difference on average is probably slightly positive (in favour of Holtby), but nowhere near 1 point. Looking at just one "what if" scenario and base a decision on that is really no better than flipping a coin and making a decision based on that.
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You are twisting what I am saying. Of course that also might happen, or the player he would have replaced might fudge up. You obviously can't predict how things would play out hence I called it a gamble. Sometimes they pay off sometimes not by definition, but this is no different than any transfer at any time. The thrust of my point is that 200k is not that large a figure in the scheme of things if the boy is coming anyway in this window and it gives the manager another option that might be the difference when everything is totted up.
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

Lost Mango said:
Does anyone know what Schalke are actually asking for in terms of £ to complete this early? There was originally talk of £1.5 million.

They don't have to sell, deal is sorted for the summer. Could it be that they know we are 'desperate' to do the deal and are asking relatively silly money - our choices are to stay as we are til the summer (tricky given Sandro's injury), buy Diame or someone for £3.5 million+ (which would give us excessive players/wages come the summer) or pay for Holtby now (in which case the fact he is out of contract in the summer is irrelevant).

If I was Schalke I would be asking for £3 - 4 million as that is what we would have to spend on another midfielder. Maybe Levy doesn't see that as value for money.
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I think you have to take into account that Schalke are in tough battle to get one of the champions league spots and Holtby might be seen as a key player in that battle. Therefore I can fully understand why Schalke are reluctant to let him leave on a heavily reduced fee. Would make little sense for Schalke to let him leave for anything less than 5M.
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

I don't think Holtby would have been involved much in our games so far, if at all. If AVB felt he was vital to our season I'm sure he'd be here already.
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

Rorschach said:
You are twisting what I am saying. Of course that also might happen, or the player he would have replaced might fudge up. You obviously can't predict how things would play out hence I called it a gamble. Sometimes they pay off sometimes not by definition, but this is no different than any transfer at any time. The thrust of my point is that 200k is not that large a figure in the scheme of things if the boy is coming anyway in this window and it gives the manager another option that might be the difference when everything is totted up.
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Not my meaning to twist what you were saying.

I thought what you wrote first was the reasoning behind your conclusion to just get him in now and stop messing around.
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

Simon_B said:
I think you have to take into account that Schalke are in tough battle to get one of the champions league spots and Holtby might be seen as a key player in that battle. Therefore I can fully understand why Schalke are reluctant to let him leave on a heavily reduced fee. Would make little sense for Schalke to let him leave for anything less than 5M.
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It works both ways.

While it might make little sense for Schalke to let Holtby leave for a small amount, it makes equally little sense for Spurs to pay a large amount for a player who they will get for free in the summer anyway.

Both clubs are aware of the fact and, consequently, both are prepared to do a deal.
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

jimmyb said:
It works both ways.

While it might make little sense for Schalke to let Holtby leave for a small amount, it makes equally little sense for Spurs to pay a large amount for a player who they will get for free in the summer anyway.

Both clubs are aware of the fact and, consequently, both are prepared to do a deal.
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Why should Schalke be prepared to deal on that scenario? They hold all the aces surely. We either cough up what they want or they keep the player til the summer. Sure they don't care whether we get him now oor not.
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

jimmyb said:
It works both ways.

While it might make little sense for Schalke to let Holtby leave for a small amount, it makes equally little sense for Spurs to pay a large amount for a player who they will get for free in the summer anyway.

Both clubs are aware of the fact and, consequently, both are prepared to do a deal.
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Well, if they want to get a fee for him that's true. But it will always be a consideration about how much he's worth for the team. I don't think they're desperate to get rid of him and get a million or two in, Schalke are a fairly big club and getting CL would be worth a lot more.

I agree with you that I think a deal will be done though.
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

Lost Mango said:
Why should Schalke be prepared to deal on that scenario? They hold all the aces surely. We either cough up what they want or they keep the player til the summer. Sure they don't care whether we get him now oor not.
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Unless they're keen on a bit of cash then that's obviously what they'll do as long as the player is 100% focused and motivated, which he has said that he is.
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

Lost Mango said:
Why should Schalke be prepared to deal on that scenario? They hold all the aces surely. We either cough up what they want or they keep the player til the summer. Sure they don't care whether we get him now oor not.
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It's worth a million + to them to let him go early so that is the decision they have to make. Twist or stick.
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

Schalke aren't going to the CL. Lost 5 of their last 10, drawn 3 others. Seven points back of third place Leverkusen, who haven't lost at home, yielded only 6 goals in 9 games. Mit Holtby, ja?
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

braineclipse said:
Not my meaning to twist what you were saying.

I thought what you wrote first was the reasoning behind your conclusion to just get him in now and stop messing around.
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No worries. It's probably a moot point now anyway as we have just a week or so left in the window. Diminishing returns and all that. I guess the debate now is really whether he comes at all in this window.
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

greatwhitenorf said:
Schalke aren't going to the CL. Lost 5 of their last 10, drawn 3 others. Seven points back of third place Leverkusen, who haven't lost at home, yielded only 6 goals in 9 games. Mit Holtby, ja?
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4th gets CL in the Bundesliga like in the Premiership.
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

Ahh. Forgot the Germans had pipped Italy for that extra placing.

Then only four back of Frankfurt. But same miserable stats for past 10 games. Hard to believe a wantaway Holtby is what they'd be pegging their hopes on.
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

Lost Mango said:
Why should Schalke be prepared to deal on that scenario? They hold all the aces surely. We either cough up what they want or they keep the player til the summer. Sure they don't care whether we get him now oor not.
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You're wrongly making the assumption that we are so desperate for Holtby that we are prepared to pay a large amount for him now even though we will get him for free in the summer. You're also wrongly making the assumption that we are only ones interested in doing a deal now. It isn't so. Schalke would like to do a deal too. They have said as much.

Fact is, this transaction, if it happens, is nothing more than an exchange of assets. They are offering a player. We are offering cash. A deal will only be done if both parties are happy with the exchange. It isn't just about Schalke.
 
Re: *Official* Holtby to join in July thread

braineclipse said:
Well, if they want to get a fee for him that's true. But it will always be a consideration about how much he's worth for the team. I don't think they're desperate to get rid of him and get a million or two in, Schalke are a fairly big club and getting CL would be worth a lot more.

I agree with you that I think a deal will be done though.
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Schalke have already invited Spurs to make an offer to sign Holtby now. It's clear that they would rather get something for him rather than nothing. We're merely in the process of finding that sweet spot that is agreeable to both clubs.
 
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