You haven't fully grasped the concept of hypothetical scenarios yet, have you?!!
No one is saying that Spurs will necessarily move forward under AVB. I no more know that they will than you know that they won't. You were hypothesizing, even if you didn't realise it. So was I.
What I was trying to explain, unsuccessfully it seems, is that:
a) Improvement cannot be measured merely in relation to other clubs. Spurs might improve under AVB. But other clubs might improve even more. So while finishing 5th would, on the face of it, be a regression from finishing 4th (if you judge improvement purely in relation to other clubs), it is also true to say that winning 74 points would be an improvement on winning 69 points (if you judge improvement in terms of results). So would Spurs have improved or regressed? Both, is the answer.
b) Likewise, you insist that AVB must achieve 4th in order to match Harry and he must achieve 4th in his first season - or else he will have failed. But if he has a long term plan which will inevitably require a period of adjustment but which will eventually lead to greater, longer lasting success, then will he really have failed?
Nick Faldo was a promising, young golfer in his early days. He won a few European tour events and was expected to make a decent career for himself. But that wasn't good enough for Faldo. He knew that his swing wasn't robust enough to cope with the mental challenge of winning the really big events - the Majors. He knew that it would always let him down whenever he was under severe pressure. So he took a radical decision. He decided to remodel his swing completely, with the help of David Leadbitter. As a consequence, his game was all over the shop for a year or two. He dropped down the European rankings. Missed loads of cuts. Looked like never fulfilling the modest promise he had once shown. But he knew what he was doing. He accepted the pain and the failure because he knew that, once his remodelled swing was properly grooved in, he would be a far better player than he once was - a player that could hope to win far more than merely the occasional European tour event. And so it was. He became the word's number one golfer and won six Majors.