Bullet
Andy Thompson
They highlighted that on motd; Ibra, Pog, Mkh, Mata, Rash, Martial starting to click.
We need to target their defence; Rojo. And kill their spirit. Not squander 5 chances like we did against CSKA
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***Tottenham Hotspur vs. Manchester United OMT***
- Thread starter Jurgen the German
- Start date
We need to target their defence; Rojo. And kill their spirit. Not squander 5 chances like we did against CSKA
afsoc4life
Vedran Corluka
Utd are yet to gel and that makes them unpredictable. I believe Spurs have a chance but it all depends on a combination of which one of the sides has their scoring boots on and Mourinho's desire to play.
Whiffler
Jermaine Jenas
From the Beeb match page ....
SAM's verdict
Most probable score: 1-1 .... Probability of draw: 30%
Probability of home win: 35% .... Probability of away win: 35%
SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) is a super-computer created by @ProfIanMcHale at the University of Salford that is used to predict the outcome of football matches
I've not encountered this SAM thing before, but it does seem to make it that everything is pretty much as likely as anything else. At least it says more than 2-0.Most probable score: 1-1 .... Probability of draw: 30%
Probability of home win: 35% .... Probability of away win: 35%
SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) is a super-computer created by @ProfIanMcHale at the University of Salford that is used to predict the outcome of football matches
Glenda's Legs
Paul Walsh
Probability statistics are definitely not my strong point, so I am obviously missing something here : if the Most Probable Score is 1-1, then shouldn't the Probability of a Draw be higher than the Probability of a Win (Home or Away)?
Whiffler
Jermaine Jenas
Assume either team might score 0-3 goals, just for an example
draws might be 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3
30 of these in 100, most frequent deemed 1-1 must have at least 9 as 8/8/7/7 would mean 2 most probable
winning scores might be 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, 2-0, 2-1, 1-0 either way
35 of these (each way) spread could be 6/6/6/6/6/5
lots of permutations with fewer than 9
lots of permutations with fewer than 9
braineclipse
Steve Sedgley
Nope. They deem 1-1 the most likely specific scoreline, but there are many more potential specific scorelines than there are outcomes in terms of home win, draw or away win.
Daisuk
Dimitar Berbatov
How it works:
http://blogs.salford.ac.uk/business-school/sports-analytics-machine/
It says a simpler version of SAM’s full model is running at a cumulative profit of over 10%. Would've liked to know the betting strategy to set that up.
Glenda's Legs
Paul Walsh
Hence why probability is not my strong point.
Thanks both. I think I get it, sort of.
Whiffler
Jermaine Jenas
Hence why probability is not my strong point.
Thanks both. I think I get it, sort of.
It may be a science to the scientists, but frequency, probability, average, mean, median are often misused.
I'm just lucky that I took two Maths A Levels, and passed three. Gen !.
We are Tottenham
Kasey Keller
Yeah, precisely.The twelfth man utd player!
90291Spur
Paul Walsh
SAM is a twunt.
Spur of the moment
Frederic Kanoute
I'm much indebted to SAM for tipping me off that It will probably be either a home win, an away win or a draw.
nayenezgani
Jimmy Neighbour
If we win this we can leave United well adrift in the league table. Could be a huge psychological blow for them.. Knowing us we're just as likely to bend over and reignite their season
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
We could go above city too so double bubble
DubaiSpur
Ian Walker
The incentive to win is there - we would jump ahead of City into the top four if we manage it, and we'd leave United floundering to boot.
However, I've never been overly convinced by our ability to seize clutch moments like these - we sometimes do (although it was a different set of players, we did so *magnificently* in 2009-2010), but more often the pressure of expectations/opportunities drags us down and exposes our mental frailties. We do better when no one notices our work, essentially.
Thus, I'm going to go for a draw here. We either concede a stupid goal, then draw level and finish the stronger side, or we score a couple but get pegged back.
-------------------------------Lloris----------------------------
Walker--------------Toby----------------Jan-----------Rose
-----------------------Dier----------------Dembele-----------
Eriksen---------------------Alli---------------------------Son
--------------------------------H--------------------------------
Subs: Vorm, Wimmer, Trippier, Wanyama, N'Koudou, Sissoko, Janssen
1-1, Kane to break his duck against United and a Mata goal to peg us back.
However, I've never been overly convinced by our ability to seize clutch moments like these - we sometimes do (although it was a different set of players, we did so *magnificently* in 2009-2010), but more often the pressure of expectations/opportunities drags us down and exposes our mental frailties. We do better when no one notices our work, essentially.
Thus, I'm going to go for a draw here. We either concede a stupid goal, then draw level and finish the stronger side, or we score a couple but get pegged back.
-------------------------------Lloris----------------------------
Walker--------------Toby----------------Jan-----------Rose
-----------------------Dier----------------Dembele-----------
Eriksen---------------------Alli---------------------------Son
--------------------------------H--------------------------------
Subs: Vorm, Wimmer, Trippier, Wanyama, N'Koudou, Sissoko, Janssen
1-1, Kane to break his duck against United and a Mata goal to peg us back.
nayenezgani
Jimmy Neighbour
I agree with a lot of what you say here Dubai (amazingly) however I just think we'll win.. I have an inkling.
I really think the last couple of matches has put us back on the right trajectory. Onwards and upwards.
Plus I really want to see Maurine sent to the stands again.
alekaras
The ITK of IDK
We did beat City convincingly on matchday 7 when we were both undefeated and that was a clutch moment at the time. And we're in better form now with Harry back.
DubaiSpur
Ian Walker
Well, I hope your inkling proves correct.
I'd love for us to win, but I think it's less likely than a relatively even draw.I'd argue it wasn't actually a clutch moment - too early in the season to mean much (places fluctuated wildly after each game), our unbeaten run hadn't stretched long enough to assume undue significance, there were no major hoodoos to be broken (I think I'm right in saying that we'd beaten City twice in the last three meetings at the Lane prior to that game) and we were still opening up in terms of regaining last season's form. It was a beautiful, unforgettably dominant performance, but it sort of illustrates what I mean when I say that we do our best work in the shadows away from public scrutiny or expectations.
As a counter-example from the immediate past, we faced a series of clutch moments last season in our fruitless quest to catch Leicester - we took on the first few (up until United) with aplomb, but then stumbled and fell apart as the public scrutiny reached a fever pitch. Ultimately, we even managed to finish behind Arsenal again. This season, we went into the Chelsea game with the ability to break the hoodoo Stamford Bridge still exercises over us and reassert our title credentials up front and center against the front-runners, and we sort of fell apart in the second half and lost both the game and our unbeaten run.
I'll stick by my point, I think. We generally don't do well in clutch moments when the pressure's on. We do sometimes - that's what makes those moments so memorable. We did in 2009-2010, over a sustained period of games *filled* with hoodoos we previously were laid low by (we beat Arsenal in the league for the first time in ages, we beat Chelsea at home during a monstrously good season for them, we beat typically defensive and niggly Bolton to keep us ahead of City, and then we comfortably beat Mancini's men away when the eyes of the media and the world were on us). We did in 2012-2013, when we remained steady and relentless all the way through the second half of the season, even as Arsenal went on an unreal run of form to finish ahead of us. And we've done well in clutch moments in individual games plenty of times. But those moments are in the minority compared to the times we've faltered or failed, and I don't think we're quite ready to cross that bridge yet.
We just aren't that sort of club yet, and haven't been for a long, long time. We're no Leicester.
Spur of the moment
Frederic Kanoute
Poch said yesterday that Janssen will not be available for the United game. Also, I fancy Poch will favour Wanyama and put both Dier and Winks on the bench, with the intention of bringing Dier on for Aldereiweld should the returning Belgian shows signs of tiring towards the latter stages.
Edit: oops, just seen Whiffler's post above, great minds .. etc.
DubaiSpur
Ian Walker
That's good reasoning. I personally put Dier in because I figure it might be worth trying to recreate last season's team (minus Lamela), to see if we can't fully reclaim our fluidity that way. But you might well be right.
As for Janssen, fair enough. Not an unduly big loss anyway - switch him out for Sterling/Harrison/Onomah.