The interesting thing about this is we are still negotiating ...
Indeed.
I think this comes down to whether or not PSG want to pay 180k per week for a 29 year old center back that hasn't been in his best form for almost a year, and hasn't been in good form because of injuries for the last 6 months. If they think he is worth 180k given those circumstances, I wouldn't blame Toby for going and I wouldn't blame us for selling.
But the reason we are negotiating is because there may be other CBs out there that these clubs can go for which may represent better long term value. If that happens, it isn't certain they will move for Toby on strong enough terms that they can pay the transfer fee we demand, or will pay him the wages his agent is demanding. Given the clause coming into effect next summer, we may as well demand a high fee for the set back of losing him a year early, otherwise we may as well then keep him another year. And if we do that, Toby risks going another year on his 50k a week, at which point he is 30, at which point Sanchez may well have truly eclipsed him and he may not have been in his best form for getting on for 2 years.
It's a fantastically intriguing scenario, and for what it's worth I think Toby's agent is fantastic. Levy probably loves sparring against him.
If our wage structure goes up this summer, there will only be a couple of clubs that would move for Toby on strong terms that would offer him genuine 'big final payday' money way above what we could. I see them as PSG and United. I can see United moving for him just to 'weaken us' (and to be honest, if they want to pay over the odds for an injured, ageing center back that hasn't played in the majority of our big wins this year, they can be my guest) but I don't know that he is a Mourinho type of defender. Bailly, and ironically Sanchez, is more his type, so Toby could be going there to play in a system that may not get the best out of him. They also seem to believe in Smalling and Rojo, and I'm not sure they'd risk putting them down in order to bring Toby in. But as I said, if they did, I'm not actually that fussed. PSG...are a club that have the money to afford him and pay him what he wants, and we don't have to strengthen a rival by selling him there. But, they also have the money to afford whoever the biggest defensive prospect aged ~25 in world football is, which just represents a better investment.
Toby is well within his rights to push for the absolute maximum he can get, and there is definitely something 'afoot' here. He may well end up leaving, but the brilliant thing is the club has a strategy. The payment for Sanchez (and subsequent trust Poch showed in him, and that faith being rewarded in performances) has proved a masterstroke, because it has massively strengthened our hand. This isn't old style Spurs, everything falling apart if we lose Carrick / Berbatov / Modric / Bale, this is us doing business on our terms. It's actually pretty fantastic to see - the brilliant thing is we have progressed at such a rate that Toby won't find too many better places than ours to sign that new contract. A really intriguing game of poker with a lot of moving parts, and there's no man I'd rather have holding our hand than Levy.