Timo Werner

[Bedfordspurs]

We've only ever scored more than 80 goals once, saying we are on course to score more than previous sides really doesn't mean a great deal in the grand scheme especially when we are a very attacking aggressive team. We've never had attacks good enough to win leagues, even with Kane and Son we always lacked the RWF to finish off the trident.

Just imagine the numbers we could score with a better quality of attacker in this system with this coach, that's all I'm saying and I don't understand why so many want to settle for less. Do we not want to win and excel? Is the point not to be the best?

The point is you can fix a HUGE apart of our issues by conceding less

I mean we have conceded record high numbers almost for a club of our position.

If we conceded a third less set pieces in the right games we would be talking about challenging. That’s this season with the greatest top 3 in history

It doesn’t take a lot to change a few things.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

And don't get me wrong I'm all for adding a high quality DM, it's absolutely neccesary but I don't believe that changes everything defensively. One player isn't going to make that significant a difference, we are still going to be open to counters, we will still occasionally play loose passes when the FBs are up the field. A great DM won't change this, but scoring early and scoring efficiently (we don't currently) will make just as much of a difference if not more for this side. Werner isn't likely to suddenly become a player who who scores at that critical moment when the pressure is on, to be a player who scores 2 or 3 from 2 or 3 chances. If we want to to win the league that's what we need imo along with the DM.

We need a whole culture shift
The DM isn’t the issue, just part of it. Otherwise we would concede more on counters for example
My issue is conceding dog brick goals. Ones that come from sheer laziness at marking or players not taking ownership when defending

Our keeper and defenders are as good as anyone’s but that too against record is toxic

 

[Bedfordspurs]

This highlights our issue
We don’t concede many chances but when we do….

 

[Raziel]

Palhiinha?
I agree have a top CM makes a difference
But… when was the last time either of sides let in a weak goal, a silly goal, a tap in form one of several unmarked men?

City, Pool? all the fudging time, both sides are open, Arsenal has become more defensive this season vs. last and adapt more for the opponent (they completely parked the bus against City as example)

Take Rodri out of City and they lose, the data back its up 12% loss rate with Rodri, 41% without him.

And don't get me wrong I'm all for adding a high quality DM, it's absolutely neccesary but I don't believe that changes everything defensively. One player isn't going to make that significant a difference, we are still going to be open to counters, we will still occasionally play loose passes when the FBs are up the field. A great DM won't change this, but scoring early and scoring efficiently (we don't currently) will make just as much of a difference if not more for this side. Werner isn't likely to suddenly become a player who who scores at that critical moment when the pressure is on, to be a player who scores 2 or 3 from 2 or 3 chances. If we want to to win the league that's what we need imo along with the DM.

So out of curiosity why do you think Werner needs to be the clinical one, not Richi? e.g. would you have the same opinion if Kane was playing through the middle still? I agree someone in the side needs to be that critical finisher, not sure it's Werner.

 

[elltrev]

This highlights our issue
We don’t concede many chances but when we do….

(Edit: actually maybe we’re saying the same thing - we don’t concede lots of chances, but when we do they’re high quality ones).

Actually if you look at xG rather than shots, we do concede a lot of chances - 8th most in the league:



Number of shots are low because we don’t give up much possession, but the the shots are quite high quality chances hence the high xG.

 

[glasgowspur]

We need a whole culture shift
The DM isn’t the issue, just part of it. Otherwise we would concede more on counters for example
My issue is conceding dog brick goals. Ones that come from sheer laziness at marking or players not taking ownership when defending

Our keeper and defenders are as good as anyone’s but that too against record is toxic

It's not the defence, it's the line in front of the defence leaving them exposed.
Has been for a while.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

It's not the defence, it's the line in front of the defence leaving them exposed.
Has been for a while.

Give me some examples of where they are exposed?

 

[Bedfordspurs]

(Edit: actually maybe we’re saying the same thing - we don’t concede lots of chances, but when we do they’re high quality ones).

Actually if you look at xG rather than shots, we do concede a lot of chances - 8th most in the league:

View attachment 16963

Number of shots are low because we don’t give up much possession, but the the shots are quite high quality chances hence the high xG.

The Emirates Marketing Project effect
When you get a shot against them it’s usually high quality because you have broken their system

 

[Bedfordspurs]

City, Pool? all the fudging time, both sides are open, Arsenal has become more defensive this season vs. last and adapt more for the opponent (they completely parked the bus against City as example)

Take Rodri out of City and they lose, the data back its up 12% loss rate with Rodri, 41% without him.



So out of curiosity why do you think Werner needs to be the clinical one, not Richi? e.g. would you have the same opinion if Kane was playing through the middle still? I agree someone in the side needs to be that critical finisher, not sure it's Werner.

Rodri out actually affects their ability to create and the stats are skewed because he wasn’t the only one out at the time… de Bruyne was
That for me is a squad issue at city as much as anything (that’s not saying Rodri doing have the impact but letting players leave and not replacing them has made city weaker this season)

 

[glasgowspur]

Give me some examples of where they are exposed?

From specific games?
Sorry my memory is really pants from that point.
However the amount of goals we have conceded from runners arriving late in box or from shots from outside the box with no one closing down is considerable.
And it goes as far back as the end of Jose's reign.

 

[lurker of old]

With Ange's system we will always concede breakaway goals. What we need above all is either another striker or even better a goal-scoring midfielder. Madders is great but seems too lightweight to shoot from outside the box and bang them in like Gallagher does...

 

[Bedfordspurs]

From specific games?
Sorry my memory is really pants from that point.
However the amount of goals we have conceded from runners arriving late in box or from shots from outside the box with no one closing down is considerable.
And it goes as far back as the end of Jose's reign.

I can’t agree
I did the crude analysis yesterday of the goals we conceded this year so far and the oniy ones that fit that description are United away
Since the turn lf the year it’s been a LOT of set piece goals
1 vs West Ham
2 vs everton
1 vs Fulham
1 vs palace (tenuous because it was a free kick)
I vs wolves (smallest man on the pitch)
City in the cup

Brighton got a penalty from our fudge up

Counter attacks for two goals cs wolves and Luton that were defended so poorly as we had numbers but players didn’t take charge

The back pass for Brentford and maybe a counter attack too (not sure what you would call their first goal)

That’s from memory.

Only city of that group are a top side and their goal was foul IMO

So stop conceding weak goals and it makes a huge huge difference. But the Dm unless aerially amazing doesn’t fix that

Imagine is vs wolves we didn’t concede the corner or vs West Ham and then only one set piece vs Everton…. 6 points more form basics

 

[Bishop]

City, Pool? all the fudging time, both sides are open, Arsenal has become more defensive this season vs. last and adapt more for the opponent (they completely parked the bus against City as example)

Take Rodri out of City and they lose, the data back its up 12% loss rate with Rodri, 41% without him.



So out of curiosity why do you think Werner needs to be the clinical one, not Richi? e.g. would you have the same opinion if Kane was playing through the middle still? I agree someone in the side needs to be that critical finisher, not sure it's Werner.

Broski I don't think Werner or Richi are of the calibre required. If Kane was in the team I'd still want better than bloody Werner on the left (but then we'd have Son so a mootish point, although I believe his days playing out on the left are done).

I'm just not interested in settling, settling doesn't win you anything. You must always improve, you must always find your weakest point and improve that. Then you move on to your next weakest point and improve there too. At no point can we EVER, say what we have is enough, that's not how football works. That not how teams that actually win things function.

You never saw Fergie, Pep, Mourinho, Trappatoni, Capello, Klopp, Sacchi etc etc win something one year and then say yes that's good enough we won't try and improve. They all added or changed personnel from a winning position to KEEP winning. We don't even win and we want to keep the situations that already don't work. Wtf!

I find it a baffling mindset. This club and it's fan base need a head shake.

 

[glasgowspur]

I can’t agree
I did the crude analysis yesterday of the goals we conceded this year so far and the oniy ones that fit that description are United away
Since the turn lf the year it’s been a LOT of set piece goals
1 vs West Ham
2 vs everton
1 vs Fulham
1 vs palace (tenuous because it was a free kick)
I vs wolves (smallest man on the pitch)
City in the cup

Brighton got a penalty from our fudge up

Counter attacks for two goals cs wolves and Luton that were defended so poorly as we had numbers but players didn’t take charge

The back pass for Brentford and maybe a counter attack too (not sure what you would call their first goal)

That’s from memory.

Only city of that group are a top side and their goal was foul IMO

So stop conceding weak goals and it makes a huge huge difference. But the Dm unless aerially amazing doesn’t fix that

Imagine is vs wolves we didn’t concede the corner or vs West Ham and then only one set piece vs Everton…. 6 points more form basics

Fair enough, I would agree that this season it hasn't been as bad mainly because of the highline not inviting teams onto us, but when we get pinned back our screening of the defence has IMHO abysmal.

 

[RunTMC]

We all want the same thing but believe in different ways of getting there. @Bishop and @Jurgen the German believe the answer lies in buying world class attacking talent across the 3. Tbh this shouldn’t even be up for debate, doing this would make us title contenders. Similarly others believe a world class DM would do it. Acquiring world class talent is incredibly difficult to do but we should still try.

But there are also quick wins as well. With the way we defend, it sometimes feels like we need to score 3 goals every game just to get a result. This isn’t really sustainable though. Ultimately improving our defensive concentration, cutting out silly mistakes would have seen us much closer to the top. Conceding less has the same net effect as scoring more

 

[Bedfordspurs]

We all want the same thing but believe in different ways of getting there. @Bishop and @Jurgen the German believe the answer lies in buying world class attacking talent across the 3. Tbh this shouldn’t even be up for debate, doing this would make us title contenders. Similarly others believe a world class DM would do it. Acquiring world class talent is incredibly difficult to do but we should still try.

But there are also quick wins as well. With the way we defend, it sometimes feels like we need to score 3 goals every game just to get a result. This isn’t really sustainable though. Ultimately improving our defensive concentration, cutting out silly mistakes would have seen us much closer to the top. Conceding less has the same net effect as scoring more

Yep
And defending better takes the pressure off the attack
It’s the how though ….

Arsenal for a period were battering teams despite not having a top striker. It was through controlling the game in the right areas and knowing their defence would cope. I’d say that rice made a huge difference to that confidence to attack because he cleans up so much

City overwhelm teams
Pool have that knack

Those teams have been in place with their coach 4/5 seasons or more

You don’t fix systemic issues quickly in football and rarely mid season

Poor old Werner can’t score enough and he is shocking at defending set pieces guy can’t win

 

[Bishop]

Yep
And defending better takes the pressure off the attack
It’s the how though ….

Arsenal for a period were battering teams despite not having a top striker. It was through controlling the game in the right areas and knowing their defence would cope. I’d say that rice made a huge difference to that confidence to attack because he cleans up so much

City overwhelm teams
Pool have that knack

Those teams have been in place with their coach 4/5 seasons or more

You don’t fix systemic issues quickly in football and rarely mid season

Poor old Werner can’t score enough and he is shocking at defending set pieces guy can’t win

I hear you on the defensive aspect but there's one big difficulty and his name is Ange. He doesn't play with the type of defensive control that Arteta was willing to so you can impart their strategy on to us.

We have to maximise the way we actually play and clearly Ange's intention is to be on the front foot in control of the ball and our team in the opposition half. That will always lead to a higher quality of chances against you, but it also means we need to take advantage of the possessions and incursions into the opposition penalty box that we gain and efficiently.

That's where a better quality of forward plays the part. Ange's team and setup is much closer to Pep Barca 09-12 than it is Pep Emirates Marketing Project 2021 onwards.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

I hear you on the defensive aspect but there's one big difficulty and his name is Ange. He doesn't play with the type of defensive control that Arteta was willing to so you can impart their strategy on to us.

We have to maximise the way we actually play and clearly Ange's intention is to be on the front foot in control of the ball and our team in the opposition half. That will always lead to a higher quality of chances against you, but it also means we need to take advantage of the possessions and incursions into the opposition penalty box that we gain and efficiently.

That's where a better quality of forward plays the part. Ange's team and setup is much closer to Pep Barca 09-12 than it is Pep Emirates Marketing Project 2021 onwards.

Control is key
But we don’t concede because we lack control. As per my messages earlier…. The recent huge increase in set piece goals conceded makes a MASSIVE difference
It’s because we don’t do the real basics
But getting control will help

 

[Bedfordspurs]

It’s worth noting that we exceeding our Xg for numbers currently so we’re not missing chances that we should score

 

[Bishop]

It’s worth noting that we exceeding our Xg for numbers currently so we’re not missing chances that we should score

That's a different conversation. I'm not talking about xG or the finishing imof chances per se I'm talking about the almost chances, the almost passes. The possesions in the opposition box that don't come to anything. There's an opportunity to hit the opposition for six before they even get a chance. We play the football that can like @tommysvr thinks can hit teams for 4 and 5 but we won't and aren't able to largely in part because far to many of those promising positions and buildups don't even result in a chance on goal. That's where a better quality of forward will make the difference (as well as competition for Maddison).