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The Stats Thread

DubaiSpur said:
uuplpa0p7p421.jpg


From Reddit. If true, this is going to be brutal - and our injuries are going to hurt us more and more as we draw toward the new year.
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It just shows how much power TV has - any sensible person would at least adjust these fixtures so that Spurs and Everton get a total of 7 days rest and Pool/City/Wolves are down to 8. There will always be some teams who have an easier Christmas period than others, but it would be nice if football's "governing" body would at least pretend to try to even it up.
 
https://experimental361.com/2018/12/31/squad-age-profiles-30-dec-2018/
Now that we’re roughly halfway through the season, I thought that it was worth updating the squad age profiles, which give a compact and colourful look at the age of players deployed by each club. Hopefully they’re fairly self-explanatory, but here’s a quick summary anyway:

For each club I’ve added up all the league minutes played by every player this season and calculated the percentage accumulated by players of every age, rolling up “18 and under” and “35 and over” for neatness’ sake.

Each vertical “step” on a club’s chart is a year, with the major age milestones denoted by slightly thicker lines (as per the labels on the left). The width of the coloured graph at each step corresponds to the percentage of minutes accounted for by players of that age.

I haven’t labelled the percentage values as the graphs were already getting pretty busy and I figured that the general shape and proportions were sufficient to compare teams.

I’ve also calculated the average age of each club’s starting line-ups this season and used this to sort all the clubs in a division from oldest to youngest.

Hopefully that’s enough to give you the idea, so let’s dive in.
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https://experimental361.com/2018/12/31/premier-league-trends-31-dec-2018/
These are adapted from a very similar design by the excellent Swedish blogger Zorba138 intended to track a club’s long-term performance and whether this was an underachievement or an overachievement based on the balance of chances created.

There are two lines:

  1. The blue line shows the rolling average of a club’s goal difference over the last 10 league games;
  2. The red line shows the rolling average of their expected goal difference, based on the quality of chances they’ve created and faced.
Comparing these two allows us to see not only how a club’s performances have changed over time, but also whether there were any differences between the balance of chances created (a useful measure of underlying performance) and goals scored.

These are shaded as follows:

  • Blue shaded areas are where goal difference is higher than chances created, suggesting an overachievement;
  • Red shaded areas show the reverse, where the balance of chances was healthier than the actual goal difference, signalling underachievement.
Over the long term we’d expect the two lines to converge unless there’s a significant difference in a club’s attacking or defensive skill compared to the average for the division. We can’t tell from the data alone whether skill or luck is the cause, but the longer a difference persists the more I’d suspect the former.
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upload_2018-12-31_9-30-20.png
 
If we want to win the league title, we have to move into top of the league table first ! In the last 10 years, we have only been in the top of the league table 3 times/weeks. We were only top of the PL league table 2 times in August 2009 (Week 2 and 3) and 1 time in August 2014 (Week 2) which was Pochettino's first season as manager. Since then, we have never been top of the league table despite fighting for the league title and finishing in top 3 for the last 3 seasons.

I think if we can move into the top of the league table and stay there for 3-5 weeks, we can stay there for a long time and go on to win the league for a few years ! For now, the first place seems like a jinx to us, just like the FA Cup semi finals. If we can break the jinx once, we can make it our own for a long time.
 
Here are our weekly league positions since 2014/2015 :

League Positions 2018/2019 (so far)
Week 1-->20
8-5-2-5-6-5-4-5-5-5-4-4-3-5-3-3-3-3-2-3

League Positions 2017/2018
Week 1-->38
4-10-9-5-5-4-3-3-3-3-3-4-5-7-6-6-4-7-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-4-4-3-4-4-4-4-4-4-3-3

League Positions 2016/2017
Week 1-->38
5-6-6-4-3-2-2-3-4-4-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-4-3-2-2-2-2-3-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2

League Positions 2015/2016
Week 1-->38
17-13-14-15-12-9-5-8-7-6-5-5-5-5-5-5-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-3-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3

League Positions 2014/2015
Week 1-->38
3-1-6-6-9-8-6-8-11-8-12-10-7-10-10-7-6-7-7-5-5-5-5-5-6-7-7-6-7-7-6-7-6-6-6-6-6-5

It is amazing and annoying how we didn't manage to be top the league table even once in 2016 and 2017 when we went so close to win the league title. For the record, we were the best team in 2017 despite Chelsea winning the league as we had the best attack(most goals scored), best defence(least goals conceded) and lost fewer games than Chelsea but Chelsea became champions because they won 4 games more than us.
 
Spurs7891 said:
Here are our weekly league positions since 2014/2015 :

League Positions 2018/2019 (so far)
Week 1-->20
8-5-2-5-6-5-4-5-5-5-4-4-3-5-3-3-3-3-2-3

League Positions 2017/2018
Week 1-->38
4-10-9-5-5-4-3-3-3-3-3-4-5-7-6-6-4-7-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-4-4-3-4-4-4-4-4-4-3-3

League Positions 2016/2017
Week 1-->38
5-6-6-4-3-2-2-3-4-4-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-4-3-2-2-2-2-3-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2

League Positions 2015/2016
Week 1-->38
17-13-14-15-12-9-5-8-7-6-5-5-5-5-5-5-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-3-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3

League Positions 2014/2015
Week 1-->38
3-1-6-6-9-8-6-8-11-8-12-10-7-10-10-7-6-7-7-5-5-5-5-5-6-7-7-6-7-7-6-7-6-6-6-6-6-5

It is amazing and annoying how we didn't manage to be top the league table even once in 2016 and 2017 when we went so close to win the league title. For the record, we were the best team in 2017 despite Chelsea winning the league as we had the best attack(most goals scored), best defence(least goals conceded) and lost fewer games than Chelsea but Chelsea became champions because they won 4 games more than us.
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We bottled it in 14/15.
 
I wanted to try and quantify how much we have had to chop and change our team so far this season, due to injuries and other absences.

The following table compares this season's Spurs with this season's Liverpool, last season's Emirates Marketing Project, 16/17's Chelsea and 15/16's Leicester (i.e. current table toppers / previous title winners).

It counts a) how many players played at least 3,000 minutes, and b) the total number of PL minutes played by each team's most-played 8 players.

(For Spurs and Liverpool this season I've scaled the numbers from 20 matches to 38 matches).

upload_2019-1-1_13-39-50.png

So basically: the numbers confirm that we've had to do loads of chopping and changing this season - more than any recent PL winners / leaders, particularly Chelsea and Leicester.
 
Our penalty shoot out record now read, played 16, won 4, lost 12 ! Surely, no other team, not even England, have a worse penalty shoot out record than us in world football !

Penalty Shootouts

Tottenham Record : Won=4, Lost=12

24-Jan-2019 L.C. Cup SF (2L) A Chelsea 1-2 (2-2 aggregate) (Spurs lost 2-4 on pens)
(Eriksen=scored,Lamela=scored,Dier=missed,Moura=saved)

26-Sept-2018 L.C. Cup 3 H(at MK Dons) Watford 2-2 (Spurs won 4-2 on pens)
(Son=scored,Lamela=scored,Llorente=scored,Alli=scored)

29-July-2018 International Champions Cup (Friendly-San Diego,USA) A Barcelona 2-2 (Spurs lost 3-5 on penalties)
(Son=scored,Davies=scored,Georgiou=saved,Sanchez=scored)

30-Oct-2013 L.C. Cup 4 H Hull City 2-2 (a.e.t) (Spurs won 8-7 on pens)
(Sigurdsson=scored,Defoe=scored,Vertonghen=scored,Lamela=saved,Kane=scored,Paulinho=scored,Kaboul=scored,Dembele=scored,Walker=scored)

11-Apr-2013 E.L. QF A FC Basel 2-2 (a.e.t) (Spurs lost 1-4 on pens)
(Huddletone=saved, Sigurdsson=scored, Adebayor=missed)

20-Sep-2011 L.C. 3 A Stoke City D 0 - 0 (a.e.t) (Spurs lost 6-7 on pens)
(Defoe=scored,Pavlyuchenko=missed,Townsend=scored,Corluka=scored,Kaboul=scored,Livermore=scored,
Carroll=scored,Luongo=saved)

01-Mar-09 L.C. Cup Final 88,217 W Manchester United D 0 - 0 (a.e.t) (Spurs lost 1-4 on pens)
(O'Hara=saved,Corluka=scored,Bentley=missed)

12-Mar-08 UEFA 3 (2L) 33,000 A PSV Eindhoven W 1 - 0 (a.e.t) Berbatov (Spurs lost 5-6 on pens)
(Berbatov=scored,O'Hara=Scored,Huddlestone=scored,Bent=scored,Jenas=missed,Zokora=scored,
Chimbonda=missed)

01-Dec-04 L.C. Cup 5 36,100 H Liverpool D 1 - 1 (a.e.t) Defoe (Spurs lost 4-3 on pens)
(Defoe=scored,Michael Carrick=scored,Kanote=saved,Michael Brown=missed,Reto Ziegler=scored)

06-Aug-04 Kappa Cup A(in Seville,Spain) Partizan Belgrade 1-1 Defoe (Spurs lost 0-1 on pens)
(Johnnie Jackson=missed) (only 1 sudden-death penalty taken)

17-Dec-03 L.C. Cup 5 25,307 H Middlesbrough D 1 - 1 (a.e.t) Anderton (Spurs lost 5-4 on pens)
(Robbie Keane=scored,Stephen Carr=scored,Paul Konchesky=scored,Gus Poyet=missed,Freddie Kanoute=scored,Mauricio Taricco=missed)

09-Mar-96 F.A. Cup 5® 31,055 H Nottingham Forest D 1 - 1 (a.e.t) Sheringham (Spurs lost 1-3 on Penalties)
(Ruel Fox=scored,Clive Wilson=saved,Ronny Rosenthal=saved,Sheringham=saved)

26-May-95 Friendly 20,000 A Singapore Lions D 1 - 1 Anderton (Lost 2-4 on penalties)

19-Jan-94 F.A. Cup 3® 24,893 H Peterborough United D 1 - 1 (a.e.t) Barmby (Spurs won 5-4 on Penalties)
(Darren Caskey=scored,David Kerslake=scored,Darren Anderton=scored,Barmby=scored,Steve Sedgley=scored)

27-Apr-93 Fiorucci Cup(Friendly) H Inter Milan D 0 - 0 (Lost 6-5 on penalties)

25-May-84 UEFA Final (2L) 46,205 H Anderlecht D 1 - 1 Roberts (2-2 aggregate)
(Spurs win the UEFA cup 4-3 on penalties)
(Roberts=scored,Falco=scored,Stevens=scored,Archibald=scored,Thomas=saved)

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We won our first ever penalty shoot out to win the UEFA Cup in 1984. But since then, we have lost every penalty shoot out in all the big matches, including 1 League Cup final and semi final each. We really need to start practising penalties ! Special mention to Lamela, as he has now been involved in 3 penalty shoot outs with us, winning 2 and losing 1.
 
I've somehow become quite repulsed by the idea of a draw........rather just go kamikaze all out for a win. You just don't get anywhere with a draw.
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
I've somehow become quite repulsed by the idea of a draw........rather just go kamikaze all out for a win. You just don't get anywhere with a draw.
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YES! I've said for years that a point is such a meagre return for a club trying to get in the top 4.
Definitely worth going balls out for the win IMO.
You know when a team goes into turbo overdrive for the last 5 minutes? Do that with 20 minutes to go, really push forward and go go go!
 
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