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The Stats Thread

https://experimental361.com/2019/03/19/scatter-graphics-premier-league-19-mar-2019/

upload_2019-3-20_10-5-58.png
It’s hard to say whether Huddersfield‘s season is more ruined than this graphic, but their eye-wateringly bad shot conversion is far from ideal either way. They’ve needed over twice as many attempts as the average team to score each league goal this season. Chelsea‘s desire to recruit another striker in January is understandable given their relatively average finishing this season despite having created all those chances – a clinical Arsenal side have scored more goals despite carving out far fewer opportunities.

upload_2019-3-20_10-6-17.png
Despite having sprung a few leaks lately, Liverpool‘s defence still looks excellent overall. If the last chart wasn’t bad enough for Huddersfield, they’re also leakier at the back than anyone except Fulham despite allowing their opponents a relatively respectable number of opportunities (fewer than Man Utd for example).

upload_2019-3-20_10-14-50.png
In raw shot terms it’s the same story as before Christmas: Emirates Marketing Project tend to dominate matches and currently take over 10 more shots than their opponents on average. Liverpool and Chelseaare the only sides anywhere near as dominant, while Burnley stand out as the team who spend the most time on the back foot.
 
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It would be interesting to see what our xGD line has been doing since December. The fact it was hovering around about 0.5 goals south of what we'd got used to would seem to be supportive of the perception that we've become weaker defensively while at the same time struggled to create as much as in previous seasons. I guess the moral is we should consider ourselves lucky still to be where we are.
 
mudshark said:
It would be interesting to see what our xGD line has been doing since December. The fact it was hovering around about 0.5 goals south of what we'd got used to would seem to be supportive of the perception that we've become weaker defensively while at the same time struggled to create as much as in previous seasons. I guess the moral is we should consider ourselves lucky still to be where we are.
Click to expand...

Honestly think you put any of the top 6 in Wembley for a season and a half and see how they perform, would put a reasonable punt on none of them matching our numbers ..
 
Lefties?

4 Of the 42 players in the Premier League this season with seven or more goals, four are left-footed — less than 10 per cent

16 Of the 43 players with five or more assists in the Premier League this season, 16 are left-footed — just over 37 per cent
Several studies have found that left-handers, who account for 10 to 12 per cent of the population, are over-represented in baseball, fencing, tennis and cricket — and often demonstrate a tactical or strategic advantage over their right-handed counterparts, whereas in football the number of left-footers mirrors the population.

The list of left-wanded wizards in football, however, is a lengthy one: from Puskas to Maradona, from Messi to *****. In 2013, the Spanish newspaper Marca reported that a study conducted by the universities of Oxford, St Andrews and Bristol, in conjunction with several Australian institutions, found that players who favour their left foot have inverted brain hemisphere functions, which gives them an extra dose of unpredictability.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...s-why-it-pays-to-kick-the-other-way-mthnvkkq0
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_106786095_toptwo.png


Not sure what to make of this. The total by the top two this year is exceptional, but the record has been broken in each of the last three seasons.
 
Jonathan Wilson's review of the PL's tactical season: Premier League 2018-19 review: what we learned tactically from the season

Between 2003-04 and 2005-06, when it first began collecting the data, Opta recorded three instances of Premier League games in which one team had 70% or more of the ball. Two seasons ago there were 36. Last season there were 63. This season there were 67.

That is a radical change. In 15 years, instances of these games have increased by a factor of more than 60. One in six games now is effectively attack against defence. The Premier League’s three relegated teams took only four points against the top six – and all of those have been against Manchester United in the past fortnight, which barely counts.
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https://experimental361.com/2019/10/08/game-states-8-oct-2019/

While there are no surprises at the very top, it’s still impressive that Liverpool have only spent 21 minutes trailing this season (after Saudi Sportswashing Machine took a shock lead). Aston Villa having spent the joint-fourth lowest share of minutes losing is also noteworthy, with their recent hammering of Norwich nudging the Canaries beyond Watford as the top flight club to have spent the most time losing (although the Hornets have spent just 40 minutes in a winning position this term). Daniel Farke’s side have also spent a smaller proportion of their time drawing than any club in the top four divisions.

upload_2019-10-8_15-48-3.png
 
I thought it would be interesting to generate a table based on expected results. As expected, we'd actually be worse off if things had gone according to the stats. The second table below shows how the luck has been distributed. Looks like Solskjær hasn't had a lot come his way. Stats obtained from https://understat.com/league/EPL
Code: 
xPts Table:         P  W  D  L   F   A  GD  Pt  +/- Pos
------------------------------------------------------
01 Emirates Marketing Project         8  7  1  0  26  10  16  22  -6  +1
02 Liverpool        8  6  1  1  17   7  10  19  +5  -1
03 Man United       8  6  1  1  12   6   6  19 -10  +9
04 Chelsea          8  5  2  1  17  10   7  17  -3  +1
05 Arsenal          8  4  2  2  12  13  -1  14  +1  -2
06 Southampton      8  3  3  2  12  12   0  12  -5 +11
07 Brighton         8  3  2  3  11  12  -1  11  -2  +7
08 Crystal Palace   8  3  2  3   9  10  -2  11  +3  -2
09 Everton          8  2  4  2  11  11   1  10  -3  +9
10 Wolves           8  2  4  2  10  11  -1  10   0  +1
11 Leicester        8  2  4  2   8   9  -1  10  +4  -7
12 Tottenham        8  2  4  2  10  12  -2  10  +1  -3
13 Watford          8  2  4  2  11  15  -4  10  -7  +7
14 Burnley          8  2  3  3   9   9   0   9  +3  -7
15 Aston Villa      8  2  2  4  11  13  -2   8   0   0
16 Sheff Utd        8  1  3  4   9  11  -2   6  +3  -3
17 Bournemouth      8  1  3  4  11  15  -4   6  +5  -7
------------------------------------------------------
18 West Ham         8  2  0  6  11  16  -5   6  +6 -10
19 Norwich          8  1  0  7  10  17  -7   3  +3   0
20 Saudi Sportswashing Machine        8  0  3  5   5  13  -8   3  +5  -4

Code: 
Pts - xPts Table:    F  xF   A  xA  GD  xGD +/- Pts xPts +/-
-----------------------------------------------------------
01 West Ham         11  11  11  16   0  -5   +5  12   6  +6
02 Liverpool        20  17   6   7  14  10   +4  24  19  +5
03 Bournemouth      13  11  13  15   0  -4   +4  11   6  +5
04 Saudi Sportswashing Machine         5   5  13  13  -8  -8    0   8   3  +5
05 Leicester        14   8   7   9   7  -1   +8  14  10  +4
06 Burnley          11   9   9   9   2   0   +2  12   9  +3
07 Sheff Utd         7   9   7  11   0  -2   +2   9   6  +3
08 Crystal Palace    8   9   8  10   0  -2   +2  14  11  +3
09 Norwich          10  10  21  17 -11  -7   -4   6   3  +3
10 Tottenham        14  10  12  12   2  -2   +4  11  10  +1
11 Arsenal          13  12  11  13   2  -1   +3  15  14  +1
12 Aston Villa      13  11  12  13   1  -2   +3   8   8   0
13 Wolves           11  10  11  11   0  -1   +1  10  10   0
14 Brighton          8  11  10  12  -2  -1   -1   9  11  -2
15 Chelsea          18  17  14  10   4   7   -3  14  17  -3
16 Everton           6  11  13  10  -7   1   -8   7  10  -3
17 Southampton       8  12  15  12  -7   0   -7   7  12  -5
-----------------------------------------------------------
18 Emirates Marketing Project         27  26   9  10  18  16   +2  16  22  -6
19 Watford           4  11  20  15 -16  -4  -12   3  10  -7
20 Man United        9  12   8   6   1   6   -5   9  19 -10
 
mudshark said:
I thought it would be interesting to generate a table based on expected results. As expected, we'd actually be worse off if things had gone according to the stats. The second table below shows how the luck has been distributed. Stats obtained from https://understat.com/league/EPL
Code: 
xPts Table:         P  W  D  L   F   A  GD  Pt  +/- Pos
------------------------------------------------------
01 Emirates Marketing Project         8  7  1  0  26  10  16  22  -6  +1
02 Liverpool        8  6  1  1  17   7  10  19  +5  -1
03 Man United       8  6  1  1  12   6   6  19 -10  +9
04 Chelsea          8  5  2  1  17  10   7  17  -3  +1
05 Arsenal          8  4  2  2  12  13  -1  14  +1  -2
06 Southampton      8  3  3  2  12  12   0  12  -5 +11
07 Brighton         8  3  2  3  11  12  -1  11  -2  +7
08 Crystal Palace   8  3  2  3   9  10  -2  11  +3  -2
09 Everton          8  2  4  2  11  11   1  10  -3  +9
10 Wolves           8  2  4  2  10  11  -1  10   0  +1
11 Leicester        8  2  4  2   8   9  -1  10  +4  -7
12 Tottenham        8  2  4  2  10  12  -2  10  +1  -3
13 Watford          8  2  4  2  11  15  -4  10  -7  +7
14 Burnley          8  2  3  3   9   9   0   9  +3  -7
15 Aston Villa      8  2  2  4  11  13  -2   8   0   0
16 Sheff Utd        8  1  3  4   9  11  -2   6  +3  -3
17 Bournemouth      8  1  3  4  11  15  -4   6  +5  -7
------------------------------------------------------
18 West Ham         8  2  0  6  11  16  -5   6  +6 -10
19 Norwich          8  1  0  7  10  17  -7   3  +3   0
20 Saudi Sportswashing Machine        8  0  3  5   5  13  -8   3  +5  -4

Code: 
Pts - xPts Table:    F  xF   A  xA  GD  xGD +/- Pts xPts +/
-----------------------------------------------------------
01 West Ham         11  11  11  16   0  -5   +5  12   6  +6
02 Liverpool        20  17   6   7  14  10   +4  24  19  +5
03 Bournemouth      13  11  13  15   0  -4   +4  11   6  +5
04 Saudi Sportswashing Machine         5   5  13  13  -8  -8    0   8   3  +5
05 Leicester        14   8   7   9   7  -1   +8  14  10  +4
06 Burnley          11   9   9   9   2   0   +2  12   9  +3
07 Sheff Utd         7   9   7  11   0  -2   +2   9   6  +3
08 Crystal Palace    8   9   8  10   0  -2   +2  14  11  +3
09 Norwich          10  10  21  17 -11  -7   -4   6   3  +3
10 Tottenham        14  10  12  12   2  -2   +4  11  10  +1
11 Arsenal          13  12  11  13   2  -1   +3  15  14  +1
12 Aston Villa      13  11  12  13   1  -2   +3   8   8   0
13 Wolves           11  10  11  11   0  -1   +1  10  10   0
14 Brighton          8  11  10  12  -2  -1   -1   9  11  -2
15 Chelsea          18  17  14  10   4   7   -3  14  17  -3
16 Everton           6  11  13  10  -7   1   -8   7  10  -3
17 Southampton       8  12  15  12  -7   0   -7   7  12  -5
-----------------------------------------------------------
18 Emirates Marketing Project         27  26   9  10  18  16   +2  16  22  -6
19 Watford           4  11  20  15 -16  -4  -12   3  10  -7
20 Man United        9  12   8   6   1   6   -5   9  19 -10
Click to expand...
Interesting. The only surprise on that bottom table is Utd for me - they have seemed brick rather than unlucky to me. No surprise about West Ham and Victimpool especially.
 
Annual league table totals for the decade... no surprise to see that this annus horribilis (barring the CL run) is our worst in EPL statistically since 2008...

2010: Won 19 Drawn 9 Lost 9 For 54 Against 42 Diff +12 Points 66
2011: Won 19 Drawn 11 Lost 7 For 61 Against 43 Diff +22 Points 68
2012: Won 19 Drawn 9 Lost 12 For 67 Against 44 Diff +23 Points 66
2013: Won 20 Drawn 10 Lost 7 For 52 Against 44 Diff +8 Points 70
2014: Won 20 Drawn 6 Lost 12 For 57 Against 51 Diff +6 Points 66
2015: Won 19 Drawn 11 Lost 8 For 67 Against 44 Diff +23 Points 68
2016: Won 20 Drawn 11 Lost 6 For 69 Against 33 Diff +36 Points 71
2017: Won 27 Drawn 6 Lost 7 For 92 Against 33 Diff +59 Points 87
2018: Won 27 Drawn 4 Lost 7 For 78 Against 37 Diff +41 Points 85
2019: Won 16 Drawn 8 Lost 14 For 60 Against 47 Diff+13 Points 56

Figures from https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/jahrestabelle/wettbewerb/GB1/saison_id/2019
 
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milo said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1213874740915527681
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And that despite all the teams above us having had many seasons head start on us. So when it comes to average points-per-game, we're up to 4th in the all-time top-flight table.

All-time average points-per-game in top flight

1 Manchester United 1.682
2 Liverpool 1.660
3 Arsenal 1.623
4 Tottenham Hotspur 1.487
5 Chelsea 1.483
6 Everton 1.469
7 Emirates Marketing Project 1.448
8 Aston Villa 1.446
9 Saudi Sportswashing Machine 1.399
10 Sunderland 1.365

(Minimum 3000 games played)
 
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