jts1882
Dean Richards
Months pass, but ManUre are still on their way to 2nd place, being only 6th(!) best team in the league.
As a general point, actual goals conceded and scored will be a better reflection of final league position for obvious reasons. The expected goals is a useful tool earlier in the season when the number of goals scored is relatively lower. I'd like to see expected and actual goals plotted together so as to reveal the anomalies (vectors between actual and real would highlight large anomalies).
When we look at reasons for deviation from expected and reality, the role of the goalkeeper can be especially important. De Gea with United springs to mind and the actual 0.77 goals conceded explains their position better. West Brom's 1.58 conceded also shifts them to the relegation zone, although I'm not sure Foster can be blamed.
Liverpool's 2.35 goals scored versus ~1.9 expected can easily explained by Salah, although United's 1.93 versus 1.55 is much harder to explain.