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Politics, politics, politics

So, the first opinion poll where the fieldwork was done after the Paxman/Debate thing the other night:

YouGov:

CON 32 (-4)
LAB 36 (+2)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 13 (=)
GRN 6 (+1)

That's the best YouGov poll for Labour for a little while. Whether it's a boost from the 'debate' or not remains to be seen, it's only 1 poll afterall. Labour will be pleased though.

Milliband's personal ratings up too.
 
the dza said:
So, the first opinion poll where the fieldwork was done after the Paxman/Debate thing the other night:

YouGov:

CON 32 (-4)
LAB 36 (+2)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 13 (=)
GRN 6 (+1)

That's the best YouGov poll for Labour for a little while. Whether it's a boost from the 'debate' or not remains to be seen, it's only 1 poll afterall. Labour will be pleased though.

Milliband's personal ratings up too.
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Still nowhere near good enough. Polls traditionally show the current governing party as being unpopular and there's often a surge in support for the opposition in polls just before an election. Labour really need a large surge in the polls.
 
NWND said:
Still nowhere near good enough. Polls traditionally show the current governing party as being unpopular and there's often a surge in support for the opposition in polls just before an election. Labour really need a large surge in the polls.
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Nope.

It is the Tories who need the polls to swing back their way. They still might of course, but if Labour get around 35% of the vote they will be very happy (given where they were in 2010). The swing from Tory to Labour in England has been between 4-5% according to various polling sources and this is the big problem for the Conservatives. Now those gains for Labour will get taken away by losses in Scotland, but the SNP won't back the Tories, so, for a Miliband government, it won't matter (imo).

As for this poll in isolation, there might be a further bounce in the offing for Miliband if it gets reported as "Labour surge 4 points ahead after TV debates, public backs Miliband" etc. etc.
 
the dza said:
So, the first opinion poll where the fieldwork was done after the Paxman/Debate thing the other night:

YouGov:

CON 32 (-4)
LAB 36 (+2)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 13 (=)
GRN 6 (+1)

That's the best YouGov poll for Labour for a little while. Whether it's a boost from the 'debate' or not remains to be seen, it's only 1 poll afterall. Labour will be pleased though.

Milliband's personal ratings up too.
Click to expand...
[shakes head]

My usual feelings for the general public are of contempt and pity, but the one thing I always try very hard to do is ensure I don't underestimate their stupidity.

It seems I've failed and done it again.
 
the dza said:
As for this poll in isolation, there might be a further bounce in the offing for Miliband if it gets reported as "Labour surge 4 points ahead after TV debates, public backs Miliband" etc. etc.
Click to expand...
It's a YouGov poll right?

I'm signed up to them and most of what they send me comes in during the day. I rarely answer as I tend to be busy - there's every possibility that in an isolated poll like that, this with jobs (especially busy ones) are underrepresented.
 
scaramanga said:
Yep. And pretty much everyone in the country (barring Labour's army of welfare voters) is an employee or an owner of a business.

So when businesses do well, we all do well.
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What a simplistic analysis, so according to you, it's "what's good for General Motors, is good for me." That line lacks any credibility, because clearly business can and does do well often at the expense of the public in so many ways. Also I said 'big business', not business. Nice try at attempting to distort what was written. ;)
 
Gilzeantoscore said:
What a simplistic analysis, so according to you, it's "what's good for General Motors, is good for me." That line lacks any credibility, because clearly business can and does do well often at the expense of the public in so many ways. Also I said 'big business', not business. Nice try at attempting to distort what was written. ;)
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I just corrected your comment. The Conservatives have been good for businesses of all sizes.

If GM do well then so do I - not that I'd ever consider buying one of their cars. Not only does my business (and therefore me) benefit from the same rules but GM employs people. They spend money and are less of a drain on the economy. The better the economy does the lower the tax burden on my (already heavily weighted) shoulders.
 
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scaramanga said:
Interesting read, thanks.

I might put a lump on a Labour majority and then lay it back out next time Milibland goes all squinty and stares as the floor or tells us what an excellent driver he is.
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They did an interesting post looking at reasons for the variance between polls taken during the week as opposed to those taken over the weekend a week or so back.

Their stuff on the Ashcroft polls has been excellent too.
 
scaramanga said:
It's a YouGov poll right?

I'm signed up to them and most of what they send me comes in during the day. I rarely answer as I tend to be busy - there's every possibility that in an isolated poll like that, this with jobs (especially busy ones) are underrepresented.
Click to expand...

Correct, YouGov. Fieldwork was done on Friday and Saturday, so probably less people at work than usual for this poll. I also agree to treat polls in isolation with caution, that's why I like to follow UKPolling-Report and see all the polls and what the trend is. The problem for the Tories at the moment is that they can't seem to get the trend going their way and they need to.

But with 5 weeks to go, there is still time and all to play for.

*Full disclosure* I won't vote Tory, I think I'd be marginally better off with a Labour government -- but I have never voted Labour either and I currently live in a very safe Tory seat. I just enjoy the general election in a bit of a nerdy way.
 
scaramanga said:
I just corrected your comment. The Conservatives have been good for businesses of all sizes.

If GM do well then so do I - not that I'd ever consider buying one of their cars. Not only does my business (and therefore me) benefit from the same rules but GM employs people. They spend money and are less of a drain on the economy. The better the economy does the lower the tax burden on my (already heavily weighted) shoulders.
Click to expand...


I'll provide one example for your personal edification. Union-Carbide provided work for Indians in Bophal. What they didn't do was build a safe factory. In fact, that was the reason the factory was built in the first place, to take advantage of weak building and occupational safety rules and to increase profit margins as a consequence. The plant blew up killing and blinding THOUSANDS of people. According to your 'analysis' these workers and their families benefitted.
 
the dza said:
Nope.

It is the Tories who need the polls to swing back their way. They still might of course, but if Labour get around 35% of the vote they will be very happy (given where they were in 2010). The swing from Tory to Labour in England has been between 4-5% according to various polling sources and this is the big problem for the Conservatives. Now those gains for Labour will get taken away by losses in Scotland, but the SNP won't back the Tories, so, for a Miliband government, it won't matter (imo).

As for this poll in isolation, there might be a further bounce in the offing for Miliband if it gets reported as "Labour surge 4 points ahead after TV debates, public backs Miliband" etc. etc.
Click to expand...

My point is that polls before an election or referendum almost always underestimate support for the status quo. Particularly with general elections polling very often favours the opposition. Labour need the polls to be massively more in their favour going into the election IMO
 
NWND said:
My point is that polls before an election or referendum almost always underestimate support for the status quo. Particularly with general elections polling very often favours the opposition. Labour need the polls to be massively more in their favour going into the election IMO
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I suppose it depends how far out you are from the election. In 2010, the election was on the 6th May. Final vote share (%) was Con 36.1 Lab 29 LD 23 with a Con Lead of 7. So let's look at the YouGov polls from the end of March 2010 to the end of April 2010. (I'm ignoring the ones in the final few days before the election) -- I chose the end of March because that's where we are now.


date C L LD con-lead
YouGov/Sun 2010-03-29 39 32 18 7
YouGov/Sun 2010-03-30 38 31 19 7
YouGov/Sun 2010-03-31 38 32 19 6
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-01 39 31 19 8
YouGov/STim 2010-04-02 39 29 20 10
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-05 41 31 18 10
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-06 40 32 17 8
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-07 37 32 19 5
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-08 40 31 18 9
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-09 40 30 20 10
YouGov/STim 2010-04-10 40 32 18 8
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-11 37 31 20 6
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-12 39 33 20 6
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-13 39 31 20 8
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-14 41 32 18 9
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-15 37 31 22 6
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-16 33 28 30 3
YouGov/STim 2010-04-17 33 30 29 3
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-18 32 26 33 -1
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-19 33 27 31 2
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-20 31 26 34 -3
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-21 33 27 31 2
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-22 34 29 28 5
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-23 34 29 29 5
YouGov/STim 2010-04-24 35 27 28 7
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-25 34 28 30 4
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-26 33 28 29 4
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-27 33 29 28 4
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-28 34 27 31 3
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-29 34 27 28 6
YouGov/Sun 2010-04-30 34 28 28 6

I count 31 polls there. The 'status quo' of that time was a Lab government. In the first 16 of those polls, the status quo was not under-estimated (i.e. Lab polled at or above their final vote share of 29%). As the election got a bit nearer, from mid April to the end of April, Lab were under-estimated in 11 of 15 polls (but only under-estimated by 1-3 points, which I would say is within the margin of error for poll samples).

So the polls from around the end of March through to the end of April didn't really under-estimate the vote share for the government of the day.

So let's move to the opposition of the time, the Cons. Remember, they ended up on 36% as a share of the vote. The first 16 of those 31 polls did over-estimate support for the opposition. 6 of those polls over-estimated by 4 points or more, and I would say that is outside the margin of error and a genuine over-estimate of support. Again, things changed mid-April, with the last 15 polls of that period actually under-estimating support for the main opposition (though most of the under-estimates were within the margin of error).

I would take 2 things from this data and the point you made. Firstly, the Cons don't want to rely on the incumbent being under-estimated in the polls this close to the election. It didn't really happen last time out. Secondly, Lab will hope that they are polling around 34% in a couple of weeks time. If the last election is anything to go by, then their support will comfortably hold if this is the case.

Remember, it's the Cons that need to be leading by a few percentage points in terms of vote share if they want to be forming the next government -- and given the polling in marginals, even then it'd be tight for them. Lab have the swing in England (from Con to Lab) and the SNP in Scotland willing to freeze out the Tories.

Therefore, Labour do not need to be further ahead in the polls at this time (though they would like to be, obviously, as then they could get a majority).

Right now, things are still neck and neck -- the Tories need the polls to start moving in their direction and stay that way.
 
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