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Politics, politics, politics

scaramanga said:
No, we would have to match any barriers others throw up.

On the whole, international trade has been moving away from tariffs and looks to continue. The EU is lagging behind here (unsurprising due to its inherently socialist nature)
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Ah ok. So we would need to get trade agreements in place for this.

As I've said before, the issue will be non-tariff barriers. If companies have to produce different versions of a product to export to different markets, to meet different regulations, it significantly increases their costs and disadvantages them against local producers.

The beauty of the EU or access to the EEA is that we do not have these with our largest trading partner. This from an article by Robert Peston explains the other non-tariff benefit:

Well the point about being in the customs union is it makes it easier and cheaper for British-based manufacturers to trade with the rest of the EU than any trade deal would deliver.

In the customs union, they can sell their cars, and missiles and electronic chips to other EU countries without incurring tariffs and without having to prove that the content of those goods is largely made in Britain.

Think for a second about why it is incredibly helpful to British makers that they don't have to prove country of origin, as part of the customs union.

Well, in a typical motor car or aircraft wing or chocolate or pharmaceutical there are loads and loads of ingredients and components that are manufactured outside the UK.

Or to put it another way, a great deal of British manufacturing - and a great deal of manufacturing everywhere - is actually the assembly of parts, kit and compounds actually made all over the world.

So the great advantage for a Ford, or a BAE or a Jaguar LandRover of the UK being in the customs union is they can sell their stuff to the rest of the EU without having to prove that the finished item is truly British, rather than a foreign wolf in British clothes.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1697230203935051
 
scaramanga said:
I think "wipe out" is overstating it.

Those that aren't efficient will suffer but there's no good reason for a government to artificially protect businesses that should be closing. Those that have more to offer than their competitors overseas will be fine.
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Regardless of whether you think it's a good idea, can you envision any likelihood where this completely free market is going to happen in UK.

If so, have another think because I am pretty certain that the country is not that way inclined even if you are.

If not then do you agree that the trade deals where cost of capital is significantly cheaper is likely to wipe out those industries in the uk.
 
milo said:
Ah ok. So we would need to get trade agreements in place for this.

As I've said before, the issue will be non-tariff barriers. If companies have to produce different versions of a product to export to different markets, to meet different regulations, it significantly increases their costs and disadvantages them against local producers.

The beauty of the EU or access to the EEA is that we do not have these with our largest trading partner. This from an article by Robert Peston explains the other non-tariff benefit:

Well the point about being in the customs union is it makes it easier and cheaper for British-based manufacturers to trade with the rest of the EU than any trade deal would deliver.

In the customs union, they can sell their cars, and missiles and electronic chips to other EU countries without incurring tariffs and without having to prove that the content of those goods is largely made in Britain.

Think for a second about why it is incredibly helpful to British makers that they don't have to prove country of origin, as part of the customs union.

Well, in a typical motor car or aircraft wing or chocolate or pharmaceutical there are loads and loads of ingredients and components that are manufactured outside the UK.

Or to put it another way, a great deal of British manufacturing - and a great deal of manufacturing everywhere - is actually the assembly of parts, kit and compounds actually made all over the world.

So the great advantage for a Ford, or a BAE or a Jaguar LandRover of the UK being in the customs union is they can sell their stuff to the rest of the EU without having to prove that the finished item is truly British, rather than a foreign wolf in British clothes.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1697230203935051
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Why should we need to prove where any part of anything has come from?

That's just replacing one terrible protectionist idea with another.
 
r-u-s-x01 said:
Regardless of whether you think it's a good idea, can you envision any likelihood where this completely free market is going to happen in UK.

If so, have another think because I am pretty certain that the country is not that way inclined even if you are.
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It has to - that's the answer to being better off out of the EU.

r-u-s-x01 said:
If not then do you agree that the trade deals where cost of capital is significantly cheaper is likely to wipe out those industries in the uk.
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Probably, yes. In some industries quality and service will put the thumb on our side of the scales but in others it won't.

I'm sure from reading your posts that you know enough about economics to understand the knock on effects of getting our goods and services cheaper and allocating production to where it is best placed to provide value.
 
milo said:
I suspect that the cost of tariffs is overstated in many cases but I would not pretend to know what they are over a range of goods. Dan Hannan got caught out getting this wrong yesterday

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/leading-brexiteer-daniel-hannan-just-9020823
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I've seen the data, I'm sure I linked earlier in this thread when I was doing a fag packet calculation on tarrifs vs the cost of EU membership.

The difference is far smaller than most would have you think.
 
scaramanga said:
I've seen the data, I'm sure I linked earlier in this thread when I was doing a fag packet calculation on tarrifs vs the cost of EU membership.

The difference is far smaller than most would have you think.
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It would be interesting to see where it leaves us when we take into account the drop in the pound.

This also depends on other countries being willing to give us zero tariff access to their markets when our need to complete trade deals in double quick time is far greater than theirs.
 
scaramanga said:
It has to - that's the answer to being better off out of the EU.


Probably, yes. In some industries quality and service will put the thumb on our side of the scales but in others it won't.

I'm sure from reading your posts that you know enough about economics to understand the knock on effects of getting our goods and services cheaper and allocating production to where it is best placed to provide value.
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What western democracy are you basing this on? I would say that the US is the most "free market" and they have tons of protectionist policies, is it likely that we would put into place policy that is further right?

Think you are cracking at debating this subject as
1 you state your opinion as fact and then move the point to discussing a situation that won't happen.

I am unaware of any major democracy that has decided to go down this route, if you can let me know one then I will stand corrected and research it as I assume there will be massive inequality rather than a paradise.
 
If the reports yesterday of us still being willing to pay into the EU to retain access to the market are correct, it is highly unlikely that we would be able to negotiate our own trade deals with other countries, so what @scaramanga is suggesting would be a non-starter.
 
r-u-s-x01 said:
What western democracy are you basing this on? I would say that the US is the most "free market" and they have tons of protectionist policies, is it likely that we would put into place policy that is further right?

Think you are cracking at debating this subject as
1 you state your opinion as fact and then move the point to discussing a situation that won't happen.

I am unaware of any major democracy that has decided to go down this route, if you can let me know one then I will stand corrected and research it as I assume there will be massive inequality rather than a paradise.
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To be fair to Scara free trade is something that has been growing over the past 50 years. Economists understood that prosperity comes from transactions. Protectionism does no one any favours, so since countries have been slowing improving free trade. The EU has been part of that. But Brexit and Trump, if he gets in, singnals a blip in that trend, with greater protectionism - in the face of globalisation people are become more nationalist.

It's a new reality. Almost a Marxist reality where cross nations, people who get nothing from global forces of free trade and movement, are pushing back. You could ague Le Pen in France is another (even the Colombian vote to not sign a peace deal was a push back away from the state).

Global trade is already down this year, if Trump is elected and we leave the single market it will start a new phase of global protectionism.
 
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Politics and economics go hand in hand. Even if you think economically a completely free market is great politics it almost certainly won't fly politically hence its a red herring.

Find the subject interesting so can have a reasoned chat but I don't think it belongs in a discussion on Brexit
 
r-u-s-x01 said:
Politics and economics go hand in hand. Even if you think economically a completely free market is great politics it almost certainly won't fly politically hence its a red herring.

Find the subject interesting so can have a reasoned chat but I don't think it belongs in a discussion on Brexit
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*great economics
 
r-u-s-x01 said:
Politics and economics go hand in hand. Even if you think economically a completely free market is great politics it almost certainly won't fly politically hence its a red herring.

Find the subject interesting so can have a reasoned chat but I don't think it belongs in a discussion on Brexit
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@milo can you create a Brisket thread? I think it would be good.
 
SpurMeUp said:
To be fair to Scara free trade is something that has been growing over the past 50 years. Economists understood that prosperity comes from transactions. Protectionism does no one any favours, so since countries have been slowing improving free trade. The EU has been part of that. But Brexit and Trump, if he gets in, singnals a blip in that trend, with greater protectionism - in face of globalisation some people are pushing back.

It's a new reality. Almost a Marxist reality where cross nations, people who get nothing from global forces of free trade and movement, are pushing back. You could ague Le Pen in France is another (even the Colombian vote to not sign a peace deal was a push back away from the state).

Global trade is already down this year, if Trump is elected and we leave the single market it will start a new phase of global protectionism.
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Free trade is good, but if you want a bit of equality, safety, green, holidays etc it can not be left to its own devices as

We do not factor in externalities very well

We can't make other nations share our goals

Leading to a race to the bottom
 
r-u-s-x01 said:
Free trade is good, but if you want a bit of equality, safety, green, holidays etc it can not be left to its own devices as

We do not factor in externalises very well

We can't make other nations share our goals

Leading to a race to the bottom
Click to expand...

Well only 5 years ago the free trade myth was busted. The increasingly free capitalist system as we knew it was on the brink of collapse! It should have heralded the end of unregulated free trade. But it hasn't, with many people already religiously wed to free economics, they couldn't rip up their world view. But the issues are complex. Markets need regulation. They don't balance themselves perfectly. As Marx said 200 years ago they are prone to boom and bust.

But in terms of national prosperity, we need to buy and sell across boarders. The more transactions, the greater wealth is created. At the same time, there are those who prosper from globalisation, and those that suffer. Cross boarder free trade and movement is good for some, not others, while free unregulated markets have been shown to be perilous. Only governments bailing them out at the expense of the poor (nurses etc) saved markets and the bastions of free trade - banks. So to say that these issues are not black and white is an understatement!

If you think how quickly technology has evolved in the past 2 decades, politics itself is no where near keeping up. It's largely still the same as it was in the 1970s. The same career politicians. The same institutions. The same patterns and practices. The same sound bites often and discussion of the same issues. Yet the world is moving on at a rapid speed and politics is not keeping abreast. Just reacting and one step behind at each turn.
 
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