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Politics, politics, politics

milo said:
I also think that it is fanciful to suggest a country of 60m will have more clout in negotiations than a trading block of 500m.
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A country of 60m that doesn't require protectionist barriers would be very appealing to a lot of countries.
 
Im still not really sure what people who voted out are hoping to see.

So far everything's been predictable. Pound at $1.20 which was predicted some 50 pages back. The EU will represent the EU members, meaning any favourable terms for the UK will not be that easy to secure. Costs to UK people will be felt. Whether it is petrol, more expensive travel abroad, slower economy... real things. Maybe there will be more jobs for Brits, but maybe not if the economy falters which the government is predicting - using the Treasuries predictions.

Ironically we may get lots of investment into the UK. Ironic as most still think Brexit would lessen investment. Brexit will lesson investment in things like car plants, banks will invest in facilities in the Union for full access etc but with the pound so low, much of the UK is attractive to foreigners. So we've seen take overs of two UK companies from abroad - another irony as we supposedly have control now but are losing our best businesses abroad. How else will the weak pound affect foreign interests in the UK? London property is 20% off for those outside the UK as are UK companies. Tourism is more attractive and of course any UK companies who export are doing well. Shame we don't make much anymore.

I think we've seen a shift from the bolshie Conservative conference approach - where they were keen to send a message to Brussels they were serious to gain a strong negotiating position - to a reality check and pull back. After May went full Brexit the pound sunk, and everyone feared the adverse affects on the economy. Now they are trimming their sales a little.

If the UK can't keep access for financial services we lose billions. So we have no bargaining position, just hope that we can reach some kind of agreement. We need the EU far more than they need us in terms of the fiance industry. Close access to the single market to the UK and all the banks will setup facilities in the EU - the EU wins. Car companies likewise will start to move out of the UK to the EU if they have a 10% tax on sales to the EU. Why would the EU protect us, if we're leaving? It would happily take this extra investment and business.

What will this be off set by? John Redwood and friends will have a sovereignty hard on, we'll be able to make our own laws (woopie), we might be able to get more trade with China and the US but why we aren't already is not clear, if we do build better trading relations it could take a decade to bear fruit. What else do Leave votes see happening? I am struggle to see how the government can deliver much back to the UK. Maybe others can see it - those who voted exit - and can explain?
 
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milo said:
You know that the government isn't going to take that line because it would wipe out manufacturing and agriculture.
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I think "wipe out" is overstating it.

Those that aren't efficient will suffer but there's no good reason for a government to artificially protect businesses that should be closing. Those that have more to offer than their competitors overseas will be fine.
 
scaramanga said:
A country of 60m that doesn't require protectionist barriers would be very appealing to a lot of countries.
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Scara how do you feel about the end of free movement? You were okay with single market access and free movement. A Norway like model. You were clear the economy would suffer without immigration. Now May has explicitly stated that Brexit vote was about controlling immigration, it seems like the one non-negotiable is the end to free movement.

Never mind that more immigrants came from outside the EU. That the NHS will be fuked without people to work in it, as will many businesses such as construction, even hi-tech firms where you often see over 50% of people such as programmers are from abroad.
 
scaramanga said:
I think "wipe out" is overstating it.

Those that aren't efficient will suffer but there's no good reason for a government to artificially protect businesses that should be closing. Those that have more to offer than their competitors overseas will be fine.
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In some countries you can pay 50p an hour to workers. How do you think UK business could compete with that? Nothing to do with efficiency.
 
SpurMeUp said:
Scara how do you feel about the end of free movement? You were okay with single market access and free movement. A Norway like model. You were clear the economy would suffer without immigration. Now May has explicitly stated that Brexit vote was about controlling immigration, it seems like the one non-negotiable is the end to free movement.

Never mind that more immigrants came from outside the EU. That the NHS will be fuked without people to work in it, as will many businesses such as construction, even hi-tech firms where you often see over 50% of people such as programmers are from abroad.
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I've been clear from the start that immigration is good and May is a fudgewit

I was temporarily hopefully for May but I stand by my initial assessment.
 
scaramanga said:
I've been clear from the start that immigration is good and May is a fudgewit

I was temporarily hopefully for May but I stand by my initial assessment.
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Is anyone actually happy with the implications of Brexit? Apart from John Redwood (cringe) and UKIP?
 
scaramanga said:
I think "wipe out" is overstating it.

Those that aren't efficient will suffer but there's no good reason for a government to artificially protect businesses that should be closing. Those that have more to offer than their competitors overseas will be fine.
Click to expand...

Just to be clear, are you suggesting that we unilaterally open up our markets with zero tariffs?
 
scaramanga said:
I think "wipe out" is overstating it.

Those that aren't efficient will suffer but there's no good reason for a government to artificially protect businesses that should be closing. Those that have more to offer than their competitors overseas will be fine.
Click to expand...

is that not the situation with most of our agriculture and manufacturing though?
 
milo said:
So the countries that export to us can keep their barriers to our access to their markets in place?
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No, we would have to match any barriers others throw up.

On the whole, international trade has been moving away from tariffs and looks to continue. The EU is lagging behind here (unsurprising due to its inherently socialist nature)
 
SpurMeUp said:
Im still not really sure what people who voted out are hoping to see.

So far everything's been predictable. Pound at $1.20 which was predicted some 50 pages back. The EU will represent the EU members, meaning any favourable terms for the UK will not be that easy to secure. Costs to UK people will be felt. Whether it is petrol, more expensive travel abroad, slower economy... real things. Maybe there will be more jobs for Brits, but maybe not if the economy falters which the government is predicting - using the Treasuries predictions.

Ironically we may get lots of investment into the UK. Ironic as most still think Brexit would lessen investment. Brexit will lesson investment in things like car plants, banks will invest in facilities in the Union for full access etc but with the pound so low, much of the UK is attractive to foreigners. So we've seen take overs of two UK companies from abroad - another irony as we supposedly have control now but are losing our best businesses abroad. How else will the weak pound affect foreign interests in the UK? London property is 20% off for those outside the UK as are UK companies. Tourism is more attractive and of course any UK companies who export are doing well. Shame we don't make much anymore.

I think we've seen a shift from the bolshie Conservative conference approach - where they were keen to send a message to Brussels they were serious to gain a strong negotiating position - to a reality check and pull back. After May went full Brexit the pound sunk, and everyone feared the adverse affects on the economy. Now they are trimming their sales a little.

If the UK can't keep access for financial services we lose billions. So we have no bargaining position, just hope that we can reach some kind of agreement. We need the EU far more than they need us in terms of the fiance industry. Close access to the single market to the UK and all the banks will setup facilities in the EU - the EU wins. Car companies likewise will start to move out of the UK to the EU if they have a 10% tax on sales to the EU. Why would the EU protect us, if we're leaving? It would happily take this extra investment and business.

What will this be off set by? John Redwood and friends will have a sovereignty hard on, we'll be able to make our own laws (woopie), we might be able to get more trade with China and the US but why we aren't already is not clear, if we do build better trading relations it could take a decade to bear fruit. What else do Leave votes see happening? I am struggle to see how the government can deliver much back to the UK. Maybe others can see it - those who voted exit - and can explain?
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this is the whole ballgame, it's the only thing we are competent at
 
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