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Politics, politics, politics

I recommend reading 'When the lights went out; what really happened to Britain in the 70s' if you want an overview and analysis of the rise of Thatcher and the country was in before she came to power.
 
Not even a mention of the budget?

Mostly pretty good I'd say, although I'm not sure about the low cap on pensions - that's a bit shoddy.
 
japenesegardenlover said:
The budget is not really decided in Parliament Scare a man of your intelligence should know that. It is Brussels that rules us now.
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I'm pretty sure the pension cap came from the tea boys and that Osborne had to accept it to get the rest through.

£1M is a scarily low figure though. If I retire at 60 (and that's the very latest I plan on retiring) and then live to 90 (not an unreasonable assumption), then my pension will be smaller than £30k a year. Any more than that and I will have to pay a punitive tax rate of 55%!

Not only is that a massive drop in lifestyle for most people, I doubt that's even the average wage in this part of the country.

And this is from the government that wants us to stop putting our money overseas where they can't get their grubby little mitts on it?
 
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I don't think Osborne will be delivering another budget. Though he might be the next leader of the opposition.
 
galeforce said:
it's not about the electorate, it's about those who turn up and vote
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However, under FPTP. not all votes are equal. Some have very little potential to make a difference, whilst others have a lot of potential to influence the outcome of the election. This isn't proper democracy.

With FPTP, turning up to vote is fine -- turning up to vote in a marginal constituency is better though.
 
scaramanga said:
Meh.

The right decision was made despite at least half of the electorate having a sub-100 IQ. The system worked.
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Party with 35% of the votes gets 54% of the seats. Another party with 22% of the votes gets 10% of the seats.
And you have people voting for Parties they dont even support to keep the other lot out.
 
scaramanga said:
Recent polls would suggest otherwise.
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Not really...

Recent polls, like most polls of the last 6 months, suggest that the election will be very close. But I don't see where the seats will come from for the Tories to form another coalition (they have no chance of a majority and if they went with a minority government, who would vote through their issues?)

Clegg is polling badly in Hallam, so there's a good chance the Lib Dems will have a new leader after the next election. This throws things even more against the Tories.

A Labour minority government (with the SNP helping them vote through issues) seems most likely imo. But we shall see, it's all to play for whether red or blue.
 
the dza said:
Not really...

Recent polls, like most polls of the last 6 months, suggest that the election will be very close. But I don't see where the seats will come from for the Tories to form another coalition (they have no chance of a majority and if they went with a minority government, who would vote through their issues?)

Clegg is polling badly in Hallam, so there's a good chance the Lib Dems will have a new leader after the next election. This throws things even more against the Tories.

A Labour minority government (with the SNP helping them vote through issues) seems most likely imo. But we shall see, it's all to play for whether red or blue.
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I think the public are (rightly) very scared of a Labour Party propped up by the SNP. There's a huge amount of distrust for the SNP and with good reason - they pretty much want the opposite of what the public wants.

The Conservative message of "Vote Labour, get SNP" has been working very well - if they have the sense to keep pushing it then it may force Milibland into promising not to form that coalition.

With UKIP self-destructing, that will be some more seats back to them and I suspect there will be enough internal claims of racism and bullying to bring them all back by the election.

The Conservatives obviously won't get a majority but the public has no love at all for the SNP and I think the "Don't let Labour ruin our good work" message is getting through.
 
scaramanga said:
I think the public are (rightly) very scared of a Labour Party propped up by the SNP. There's a huge amount of distrust for the SNP and with good reason - they pretty much want the opposite of what the public wants.

The Conservative message of "Vote Labour, get SNP" has been working very well - if they have the sense to keep pushing it then it may force Milibland into promising not to form that coalition.

With UKIP self-destructing, that will be some more seats back to them and I suspect there will be enough internal claims of racism and bullying to bring them all back by the election.

The Conservatives obviously won't get a majority but the public has no love at all for the SNP and I think the "Don't let Labour ruin our good work" message is getting through.
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Possibly, but I don't think many who are currently leaning towards Labour are going to be put off by the SNP voting through things in line with Labour (they won't be in a formal coalition like the lib-dems/tories have been, iirc Milliband has recently ruled this out). Labour can't really rule out a confidence and supply agreement -- afterall, it is up to the SNP how their MPs vote. If they want to scupper the Tories and back Labour, but be in a coalition with neither, then it's really up to them. Ironically, for those voters who hate Labour and fear the SNP, the main thing that prevents a Labour majority government is the strength of the SNP, who will likely swallow up many Labour seats in Scotland.

Re. UKIP, I'm not sure allegations of racism will put off many of their voters -- infact, a lot of them just put negative coverage down to a conspiracy. I expect some Tory-Ukip voters will return to the Tories as the election nears and it seems like a Labour government could be on the cards.

Whilst I find the politicians involved to be bland as fu*k, I find the election itself interesting. The strength of UKIP and the SNP makes it an uncertain election.

I'll have a bet with you if you like -- if the Tories are in power after the next election, you can give me an avatar of the wonderful IDS -- but if Labour end up forming the next government, you have to have a smiling Ed Miliband as your avatar! :)
 
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who's ed milliband?

i agree on ukip voters dza, although I differ on the reason, allegations of racism won't put them off, thats what appeals to many of them, I can see quite a shift back from UKIP to Con on voting day, its one thing to say you might vote for them but a whole other thing to go into a booth and do it
 
I see they have now settled the 'debates', with Cameron not actually debating Miliband head to head. This was to be expected, Cameron has nothing to gain from a head to head with Miliband; it's 'priced in' that Miliband is weird etc. A bad debate for Miliband wouldn't move the personal ratings for either of them much, but a good debate would give Miliband a boost in his personal ratings and undermine a core tenet of the Tory election message ("It's a choice between Dave and Ed -- Ed is weird, weak etc. so don't vote for him." ) I don't think Cameron is a coward for this, it's just the best strategic move on his part. There will be no empty chair, which is the only way Cameron's strategy here could have back-fired.

I'll probably watch the shows with Miliband and Cameron answering questions, I don't think I'll bother with the others though.
 
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