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I aint no Sheikh-but lets talk weather

greatwhitenorf said:
I'm here in Canada. It's a big, big country and it isn't 32 everywhere.

But it is baking and shaking, baby, here in Toronto. Temps topping 30 degrees over this gorgeous Canada Day long weekend. More of the same over the next two weeks. C'mon over and soak up the sun. A change will do you good.
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I suspect you mean Fahrenheit and he means Celsius.
 
Anyone else got rain (again) tonight?

It started around 1pm here in Crawley............it hasn't stopped yet. Just continuous bloody wet and cold.
And supposed to rain all day tomorrow.

Sooooooo fed up
 
Crawley said:
Anyone else got rain (again) tonight?

It started around 1pm here in Crawley............it hasn't stopped yet. Just continuous bloody wet and cold.
And supposed to rain all day tomorrow.

Sooooooo fed up
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Looks like a low pressure is hanging about for the next week.

i mean ffs.......i had porridge for breakfast tis morning
 
Yossarian said:
Indeed. Wettest April, May and June on record.

Compare with Met Office forecast for the period, using their £93,000,000 super computer, and wonder.....
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Indeed; spectacular, epic failure! Have a laugh at this :lol: ...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf

The most powerful weather supercomputer in the world used to be run by the Germans, a beast known as Blizzard which could output at peak processing power of 158 TeraFlops/sec:

http://www.dkrz.de/Klimarechner/hpc/ibm

However, this has just been blown out of the water by the Japanese. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) have just brought online a monster which can peak at 847 TeraFlops/sec - over 5 times more powerful!

http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/News/NAPS_UPGRADE_2012.html

The Met Office's current supercomputer cost £33m and is due for upgrade in 2015, at a cost of £42m. It's current power is 125 TeraFlops/sec - so, as you can see, now some way behind JMA. However, it's the model overlay which the boffins at Exeter tend to focus on which is the jewel in the UKMO's crown, and this is the worldleader by some distance.

The 'next generation' of weather supercomputers will be in the exaflop league - massively more powerful than anything we've seen yet. However there's a serious issue of how to power it in a single state, as it would require something ridiculous like 2MW to run :eek: That just isn't really viable, so it's more likely to be some kinda tethered/dynamic network which either harnesses several supercomputers or uses some kind of distributed computing.
 
Sheikh.....make me feel better about the weather please?

It's getting silly now.

How long since the last HOT summer?

I understand in the long run you get brick weather and periods or brick wether....but seriously it's YEARS NOW!!!!
 
Papercut said:
They apparently have good and cheap dental surgery in Hungary too - come back with sparkly new teeth and a tan to match :D
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BEAUTIFUL!!!
ugly-smile.jpg
 
Sheikh Ma Nuggets said:
Looking more favourable to a humid pattern becoming fairly dominant into next week, with growing potential for some explosive thunderstorms to come about as sticky, very unstable air is pumped up from Iberia. It doesn't happen too often, but when it does it's usually very spectacular.

Still being influenced by an upper trough, albeit not as elongated as what was over us in May; susceptible to warming-out fairly quickly should the azores play ball and allow pressure to build. Some signs there's a signal for that over the next 14days, but it's a weak signal and not enough support (yet) for it to have confidence.

I'm off to the Greek Islands for a bit so would be nice to return to a balmy bit of sunshine 8)
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And so it is.

Very strong potential for some pretty spectacular weather over the next 3-4 days: plume of warm, moist air forms a cut-off low over the near continent, builds and retrogresses NW across the UK, before doubling back on itself; finally exiting our shores sometime on Monday I'd imagine.

This is a very complex, volatile set-up and one which usually produces near monsoon levels of rain as a phenomenon called rapid cyclogenesis causes the low pressure to violently build in strength, in a very short period of time. The complexity is compounded in how it looks like the low will stall, therein giving some areas an utter drenching.

At this stage, I'd say Northern England / North Wales; later transferring to the SW are the most at risk here. Meso models indicate a horizontal line perpendicular to the Pennines, running from Liverpool across to Manchester, Sheffield (very high risk) and out to the east coast. Sheffield predicted 90mm (3.5in) of accumulated precipitation over just a 48hr period; that's serious business.

The threat to the SW is more complex as it's dependant on the orientation of the low; but strong potential for similar downpours. Through Sunday, the threat shifts to the Midlands, SE, Eastern England as the low pressure fills back and drifts back East; incredibly difficult to get any degree of locality to threat levels at this stage - but the potential is there.

It's going to be wet everywhere, but those areas listed above are at serious risk of flash flooding.
 
Hopefully we'll dodge it.......it's going to be one of those where if you're lucky Saturday will be quite warm and sunny.....or you could get biblical rain!
 
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