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scaramanga said:
That's not the conclusion he's made. Lookingal at our xG over time, we should be finishing 6th (still above wage costs). I'm reality were finishing higher and are therefore outperforming the xG slightly. That's partly down to the strikers and partly (depending on how sophisticated the xG model is) down to the type of chances we create.
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But goals aren't part of the data set!! It's expected points, not goals.
 
Lilbaz said:
I can't make the conclusion that we are 6th on that table for expected points? That's what it shows. Behind arsenal, utd, liverpool, chelsea and utd.
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You were talking about goals from Son and Kane. Goals aren't part of the data set.
 
Kandi1977 said:
You were talking about goals from Son and Kane. Goals aren't part of the data set.
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No. But expected points are evaluated by how dominant a team is (as said in the article). So by the expected points spurs have been less dominant than 5 other teams over that time period. Yet in reality on average we have finished 4th. So we have either scored more or conceded less than what was expected. (Expected points are partly worked out from xg and xg conceded).
 
Lilbaz said:
No. But expected points are evaluated by how dominant a team is (as said in the article). So by the expected points spurs have been less dominant than 5 other teams over that time period. Yet in reality on average we have finished 4th. So we have either scored more or conceded less than what was expected. (Expected points are partly worked out from xg and xg conceded).
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Everyone knows we don't really dominate teams, and don't create a lot of chances, but the chances we DO create, have tended to be high xG. So still can't make that conclusion. You are basing your conclusion on data that isn't part of the graph, and is also irrelevant.
It only shows how teams perform compared to their wage bill, and most follow the line, with City really being the only major anomaly.
 
Kandi1977 said:
Everyone knows we don't really dominate teams, and don't create a lot of chances, but the chances we DO create, have tended to be high xG. So still can't make that conclusion. You are basing your conclusion on data that isn't part of the graph, and is also irrelevant.
It only shows how teams perform compared to their wage bill, and most follow the line, with City really being the only major anomaly.
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Expected points are a part of the data set. They are the x axis. Expected points are measured by xg and xg conceded (with a little formula thrown in).

Other data sets concur over the last few seasons kane and son have exceeded their xg.

Dunno why you are arguing it. Unless you think they haven't?
 
Lilbaz said:
Expected points are a part of the data set. They are the x axis. Expected points are measured by xg and xg conceded (with a little formula thrown in).

Other data sets concur over the last few seasons kane and son have exceeded their xg.

Dunno why you are arguing it. Unless you think they havn't?
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Most top class players exceed their xG. It's why they are top class.
 
Kandi1977 said:
Most top class players exceed their xG. It's why they are top class.
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Yes but our expected points would have us lower than what we got in reality. Which suggest kane and son have been exceeding even top class players from teams like arsenal and man utd.

If you can find a data set that discounts that fair enough. But until then, i believe that we owe a huge amount to kane and son.

You don't think so fair enough.
 
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Kandi1977 said:
Most top class players exceed their xG. It's why they are top class.
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that’s not exceeding their xG, it’s exceeding general xG, which all forwards should do, as the calculation includes shots not made by shooting specialists

I wish someone would track individual xG, there would be some fascinating data there
 
Baleforce said:
that’s not exceeding their xG, it’s exceeding general xG, which all forwards should do, as the calculation includes shots not made by shooting specialists

I wish someone would track individual xG, there would be some fascinating data there
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There are. Sofascore gives individual xG each game. Haven't seen it added for a period of time though, but the data is out there.
Here's an example from the west ham game last weekend.Screenshot_20230226_132325_Sofascore.jpg
 
Kandi1977 said:
There are. Sofascore gives individual xG each game. Haven't seen it added for a period of time though, but the data is out there.
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yeah I’m being lazy, I want a running count of how much players are above or below their particular xG

so I can either crow about how great they are or have a go at them for not trying
 
Baleforce said:
yeah I’m being lazy, I want a running count of how much players are above or below their particular xG

so I can either crow about how great they are or have a go at them for not trying
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Even better is xGC (xG chain) which shows how likely a player being in the build up will result in a goal.
 
Lilbaz said:
I just remember seeing the highest prem goalscorers against liverpool.

Think it was shearer the most, henry 2nd then caragher. Think he scored 3 for us.
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Carragher scored the same number of league goals for us as he did for Liverpool - 3
 
While I enjoyed City denying the scum a title

By my lazy calculations, City have won 10 of last 18 domestic trophies, if you look at PL & League Cups only (minus FA), it's 9 of last 12.

Most competitive league in the world ...
 
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