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Daniel Levy - Chairman

scaramanga said:
What's the difference between luck and good judgement with a sample size of 1?
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Poch and Kane is just one example. Lots of teams, including us, have gone into a season with only one good player in a key position. Almost every single time that player gets an injury and the team badly struggles in their absence.

Don't see how anyone can say that Kane's fitness and thus our good form was anything other than luck. Cannot possibly expect him to play as many games again next season particularly as we won't be able to rest him for European games any more.
 
SUIYHA said:
Poch and Kane is just one example. Lots of teams, including us, have gone into a season with only one good player in a key position. Almost every single time that player gets an injury and the team badly struggles in their absence.

Don't see how anyone can say that Kane's fitness and thus our good form was anything other than luck. Cannot possibly expect him to play as many games again next season particularly as we won't be able to rest him for European games any more.
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Why wasn't it good judgement?
 
Rorschach said:
Unless you can see the future it is hard to describe it as judgement.
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Indeed. You may be able to cast a judgment over whether a player is capable of maintaining their fitness levels and playing every game in a season but you can never predict whether they're going to get injured.

Bale was fortunate to not get a very serious injury in a pre season friendly and I know that as a teen Robbie Keane even managed to rupture his knee ligaments stretching to grab a TV remote that had fallen underneath his couch!

Going without another option in a key position is always a risk. Sometimes it works out sometimes it doesn't.

This time it did but next season we could see a Charlie Adam style challenge that breaks Kane's leg and there can be no doubt that it would ruin our season without backup.
 
All judgement decisions rely on an assessment of probability. It's the lack of an obvious plan B that makes the decision a hostage to fortune.
 
scaramanga said:
Aren't all decisions made on future events? By your logic, no good decision can be anything other than luck.
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My logic doesn't say that at all actually. Decisions are made primarily based on experience of what has happened before and applying that knowledge to predict what is probable to happen in the future. To argue that Poch/Spurs judged that Kane definitely wouldn't get injured doesn't make any sense really. If you want to debate what luck really is well that is another conversation, but going on the conventional understanding of the word I'd say we got lucky.
 
Rorschach said:
My logic doesn't say that at all actually. Decisions are made primarily based on experience of what has happened before and applying that knowledge to predict what is probable to happen in the future. To argue that Poch/Spurs judged that Kane definitely wouldn't get injured doesn't make any sense really. If you want to debate what luck really is well that is another conversation, but going on the conventional understanding of the word I'd say we got lucky.
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we don't know what the backup plan was to judge accordingly, for all we know Lloris is a secret superstar striker

it's all hypothetical
 
Risk management, we made a calculated bet, based on end result = it was the right one.

Could it have gone tits up? sure, and then we would be saying how stupid they were (why people get paid to make big calls)

Personally I think the Striker & DM situation was as simple as, Poch thought Kane and Dier had enough quality, both physically don't seem to break down too much and the alternatives were probably not good enough or simply not within our price range (risk calculation would include how much it would cost to eliminate risk vs. worst case scenario)
 
Rorschach said:
My logic doesn't say that at all actually. Decisions are made primarily based on experience of what has happened before and applying that knowledge to predict what is probable to happen in the future. To argue that Poch/Spurs judged that Kane definitely wouldn't get injured doesn't make any sense really. If you want to debate what luck really is well that is another conversation, but going on the conventional understanding of the word I'd say we got lucky.
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I've worked with a lot of people/companies that work like that and they just tread water until they become obsolete. No circumstance is entirely like any other and making decisions based on the correct set of circumstances is how to progress.

Of course they didn't judge that Kane definitely wouldn't get injured, just like they didn't judge that a giant unicorn definitely wouldn't trample WHL half way through the season. They made a judgement call that involved some risk, they got it right.
 
scaramanga said:
I've worked with a lot of people/companies that work like that and they just tread water until they become obsolete. No circumstance is entirely like any other and making decisions based on the correct set of circumstances is how to progress.

Of course they didn't judge that Kane definitely wouldn't get injured, just like they didn't judge that a giant unicorn definitely wouldn't trample WHL half way through the season. They made a judgement call that involved some risk, they got it right.
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You are veering away from the original point that we got lucky that Kane didn't get an injury. We did . Simple as. We were trying to buy a striker if you recall so they saw it as risk.
And your argument that people (and now companies) don't make decisions based on their experience is a little baffling. Anyway I'm think I'm done with this after reading your unicorn argument.
 
Rorschach said:
You are veering away from the original point that we got lucky that Kane didn't get an injury. We did . Simple as. We were trying to buy a striker if you recall so they saw it as risk.
And your argument that people (and now companies) don't make decisions based on their experience is a little baffling. Anyway I'm think I'm done with this after reading your unicorn argument.
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I don't think we can say that, we don't have the data

we'd need Kane to have missed 4/5 consecutive games to draw a conclusion, just because a plan wasn't implemented doesn't mean it didn't exist
 
Rorschach said:
You are veering away from the original point that we got lucky that Kane didn't get an injury. We did . Simple as. We were trying to buy a striker if you recall so they saw it as risk.
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Or maybe we just didn't get unlucky.

Clearly we would prefer to have the right backup at the right price. If those two requirements can't be met then we have to choose between getting just anyone in, overpaying for the right person or just having Kane. The decision we made paid off - it was clearly a calculated one and a good one.

Rorschach said:
And your argument that people (and now companies) don't make decisions based on their experience is a little baffling. Anyway I'm think I'm done with this after reading your unicorn argument.
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If you only base your decisions on what happened before then you end up in stasis - in a competitive environment such as ours that's just as bad as making the wrong decision.

At one point, Kane had never scored a PL goal. If we only based our decisions on the past then we'd never have put him in the team.
 
SUIYHA said:
Have always been a "Levy-ite" apart from a brief wobble when he sacked Jol. But...yet again we wait until the last minute to bid for key transfer targets, drop nine points in August and then finish one point behind Arsenal AGAIN. Literally one more goal in any of those games would have seen us finish above them and have the extra prize money from finishing higher in the league.
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Given we had the second best offense in the league, I think this argument falls a bit flat on its face. As for that extra goal, it could have easily been Kane not missing a number of gilt-edged chances in a number of games. Not to mention several other players.

SUIYHA said:
It's an old conversation topic and I know that they don't wait until the last minute on purpose, but I refuse to believe that it's not possible to have bids out for all your top targets in May, not start in August. Especially not in a summer with no international tournament.
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I think you may have answered your own question here. If "they don't wait until the last minute on purpose," then obviously there's a reason which prevents them from having bids in May. And for all we know, there may be back room conversations with the clubs of the players we're interested in that we never hear about to feel out the waters. For example, we may be talking to Marseille or his agents about Batschuyai, but the feedback we are getting is that the player is not ready to consider any teams until later in the summer. So what would be the point of making a bid? Just so a few people on a forum can feel better?
 
alekaras said:
Given we had the second best offense in the league, I think this argument falls a bit flat on its face. As for that extra goal, it could have easily been Kane not missing a number of gilt-edged chances in a number of games. Not to mention several other players.


I think you may have answered your own question here. If "they don't wait until the last minute on purpose," then obviously there's a reason which prevents them from having bids in May. And for all we know, there may be back room conversations with the clubs of the players we're interested in that we never hear about to feel out the waters. For example, we may be talking to Marseille or his agents about Batschuyai, but the feedback we are getting is that the player is not ready to consider any teams until later in the summer. So what would be the point of making a bid? Just so a few people on a forum can feel better?
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I couldn't agree more with what you have said. I just don't understand why people believe that the club deliberately draws out transfers to the last possible moment. It's not in our benefit to do so especially with the knowledge that Poch really puts his players through a rigorous pre-season. The reality is that:

1. The majority of our signings do not take place in the last week of the window; and
2. There are 3 parties involved in any transfer (the player and his cronies, the selling club and the buying club). The player wants the highest wage possible and/or to join a "winning team". The selling club wants the highest price possible. The buying club wants the lowest price possible, the player in as quickly as possible and no competition for services. The buying club knows that the longer a transfer drags on, the greater the risk of another club coming in and pushing up the price. The selling club also knows this, and also knows that if they have a player that is likely to be in demand, there will be competition for the services. What the selling club also knows is that if they need to buy a replacement player, or another target the roles will be reversed and they don't want to be in a position where they are left with no player i.e. they have sold but not secured the replacement. The player knows that he wants to be paid the most and that there are some clubs out there that pay ridiculous wages and some others that don't.

The closest analogy I can think of is the whole house purchasing process (England). You can have a deal agreed in principle for one stage, but until the whole chain is happy nothing is going to happen. Except in this example, the house also has an opinion as to who it wants to be owned by. If the selling club doesn't need a replacement, then dragging it out is the right move to make. There are countless examples of this happening i.e. Bale transfer. Dragged out to the last couple of days but it then led to the sale of Ozil and other moves in the transfer window.

Levy has more examples of deals concluded early in the transfer window than later, yet some will always choose to believe the rhetoric and assume that Levy is some dude that likes to harm himself and his investment regularly just to save a few bob when it is spurious that that is even the reason.
 
Finney Is Back said:
Unicorns?
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:confused:

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