markysimmo
Johnny nice-tits
Promising from SA
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter markysimmo
- Start date
markysimmo
Johnny nice-tits
No sporting events in Wales will have crowds from Boxing Day, doesn't say how long for though
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
London data is showing the link between cases and hospitalisation isn't being re-established
monkeybarry
Jack Jull
London data is showing the link between cases and hospitalisation isn't being re-established
It doesn't. It shows true hospitalisations Vs an irrelevant measure - Nov20-Mar21. That is a different variant, so is comparing different characteristics. It's not a suitable comparison.
It is certainly promising that actual hospital admissions are currently low and stable.
However the risk is a high volume, short time period spike - "condensed admissions" if you will.
I'd be interested to see when that is predicted in the modelling. But as Chris Whitty said yesterday, there isn't current enough data to draw full conclusions.
Diamond Lights
Alan Hutton
Just to add, lockdown also due absence in the health care because of increased spread of omicron. If all your staff are off sick and isolating, then Healthcare, Police, Fire, critical infrastructure is at risk.
Mikey10
Jimmy Neighbour
That’ll be the factor which is going to hit hard in January. It’s going to have a huge impact in education too, with teachers and support staff off. There will be schools unable to open - so expect some changes to plans for GCSEs and A Levels to run largely as normal.
We’re perhaps now in the realms of the kind of flu pandemic which has been war-gamed a couple of times over the last decade (although recommendations thrown up by this were unfortunately ignored).
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
If it's conclusively mild, and wiping out Delta too, then surely you just stop all isolating and also stop all testing except for severe cases (where a diagnosis can inform treatment choices)?
Looks like they will cut the isolation period from 10 to 7 days to help with that.
johnola
Jermaine Jenas
That would be a welcome change. I’m finally out of self isolation this morning having tested positive on December 10th. That’s eleven full days I’ve been stuck in for. The day I tested plus 10 full days.
SteveAWOL
Chris Jones
Hopefully deaths in Gauteng don’t continue to rise for much longer but at least cases and hospitalisations from the Omicron epicentre are heading back in right direction.
https://www.news24.com/news24/South...hed-the-peak-of-its-fourth-wave-nicd-20211221
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Harry-Moultrie
https://www.news24.com/news24/South...hed-the-peak-of-its-fourth-wave-nicd-20211221
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Harry-Moultrie
SteveAWOL
Chris Jones
Diamond Lights
Alan Hutton
Haven't seen any studies saying it's milder. The only study close to that states that Omicron does not replicate in the Lungs as well as previous strains which is positive, however, no assessment that severe damage of the bronchus could eventually lead to pneumonia or other impact. And i think that study was on lung tissue samples as opposed to real world settings in hospitals.
We are still soooo early into Omicron, it won't be until the first couple of weeks of January where we have concrete data to rely on. Again i hope that's it's good news, but Omicron really poses a different threat away from just hospitilisation, as mentioned above, if hospitals, schools, police, Tesco, delivery drivers etc all have massive staff absence in a very short space of time, we'll be in massive trouble. Look what happened when BP fell short of Petrol, last thing we need is another run of panic buying and old biddies not being able to get food.
Grays_1890
Chris Jones
What we found at work is that in some cases it worked in our favour as we have had half with Covid over the last month and with testing and stringent safety the other half have been safe, now the other half are coming back with 90 day exemptions so we are actually in a stronger situation, my luck and party by design.
Maybe. If it is down to voluntary behaviour, does suggest we don't need more restrictions.
markysimmo
Johnny nice-tits
My 10 days was from when I first started feeling crap which was a Tuesday, I had a confirming PCR on Thursday
markysimmo
Johnny nice-tits
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
There's this second one about not effecting lungs too: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.17.473248v1
ricky2tricky4city
Steffen Freund
I think some people would change their behaviour if cases (and predicted transmissibility) was high BUT the biggest behaviour changing factor at the moment is timing, a large majority of people don't want the inconvenience and disruption to their festive holidays. It's a time they have a break from work and also the coming together of generations of families. It's safe to say Boris won't be bringing in restrictions about meeting people indoors (for Xmas) BUT a positive test will scupper your plans and people want to protect themselves from that jeopardy.
People had to tow the line last year but want this year to be as 'normal' an experience as possible.
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Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
Absolutely. But isn't it a bit early to start seeing that in the data? People first started getting nervous about omicron about 8 days ago now, so things we are seeing now were probably already baked in by then (with 5 days incubation etc)?