Andre Villas-Boas - Head Coach

[BrainOfLevy]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

But would you just keep wading into s@@@? You know why the stat in that book is a load of balls? It's because good managers don't get sacked and their clubs do alright, you only get sacked if you're crap but then a new manager comes in and arrests the slide therefore clubs that don't sack their managers are the clubs that didn't need to and the ones that did we're the ones that did need to. If anything the fact that both clubs end up in the same position proves the sacking clubs were probably right to pull the trigger - another example of stats over common sense and human reasoning!

Next!

I'm absolutely baffled by this post. How do you arrive at the conclusion that good managers didn't get sacked? What made them better than the ones that did? How did these clubs decide that they didn't need to sack the manager in question? How does it prove that sacking clubs are right?

 

[NWND]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

Pretty much that.

People should read up on regression to mean or "the curse of Sports Illustrated" for people who are more comfortable with sports than statistics. Even if you still think AVB is a **** manager at the end of it, it will improve your life.

You know what, actually this is entirely why AVB is going to prove to be a c@@@ manager.

You know what's great about football and the reason why it's been slow to catch on with American Sports fans? It's unpredictable! It's fluid, it's off-the-cuff!

The problem with AVB is, he looks at a game, I'm going to set up my little chess pieces here, just so. I'm going to drill them, to stand just here and pass just there, if we achieve X possession in X portions of the pitch, statistically we will concede X chances and create X chances and our win likelihood will be X. He spends all day figuring out the numbers, the positions, the passing domination, telling his players to stand here, stand there, pass here, play it safe, follow the plan, we'd won't concede and after 80 minutes the percentages say they'll be tired and our scoring likelihood will be X.

He spends all week drilling this plan together, and turns up on match day, the team takes the field. ABvB rubs his little hands together surveying his statistically 89 per cent rated winning likelihood team, then ....WTF one of their players has latched onto a through ball and launched a 20 yard dipping volley into our top corner out of nothing on his weak foot that statistically had a 0.0009 per cent chance of scoring.....Fuu@@@@@@@@@k yoooooooooooou AVB !!!!! This is football. It's essentially totally random and is only given order in so far as the better the player the more random moments of genius he can produce....if give the license to try of course

 

[Modric THFC]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

I predict we would improve anyway, with or without AVB. Read 'The Numbers Game' by Chris Anderson. Compared with a control group of clubs that didn't sack their manager, clubs that did over a period of 15/20 years performed no better. It's called regression to the mean. There's always good form and bad form and it will even out most of the time.

What does blameless mean? Is he to blame for how the football looks at the moment? Absolutely. It is all his 'fault'. But is he integrating 7 new foreign signings into the squad? Yes. Are we much worse off than last season? No. Is it possible that the football can improve? Pretty much. Of course he is to blame for how it looks right now, but football isn't a happy land where managers come in and everything is fine for the entirety of their reign. There will always be tough times. No manager is different in that regard.

I think if we get a new guy, he will probably do well. I just can't handle yet another sacking and yet another new era, yet another transitional period etc etc. It will take me a few months to care as much again. Personally I think if we have ambitions to get above our station, we need to stick with something through good times and bad. As long as board and players are on board and know the transition will be tough at first, then I say we keep going.

If you have a large enough sample size (and this was 183 sackings versus i'm presuming a similar number of non sacking with is huge) then of course it will regress to the mean.
But good managerial appointments happen just like bad ones. And its up to Levy to come up lucky in the managerial lottery.

 

[NWND]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

Is the Lamela thing really such an issue as you are making out? Really? I mean I could just as easy argue it the other way, but I can't be arsed.

As for the rest, we have been there 68 pages ago. You're never going to acknowledge there is the potential for performances to improve. You think this is it, this is what AVB wants and this the limit. No one, probably not even AVB coming out and addressing your concerns directly, is going to convince you otherwise.

BTW, you always say the defence looks a shambles when attacked, and always say we are vulnerable to a ball over the top. Well of course, we play so the opposition can do only that. If we had a different defensive shape, we would be vulnerable to something else. Lloris sweeps it up most of the time. That's the point. Before the freak game on Sunday we had a good defensive record. If you want to count all the nearly chances that the opposition could have scored in another universe then it's only fair I count the chances we have missed, and suddenly our goals column looks a lot more entertaining. Hooray for AVB!

Haha what chances have we missed, we barely create any, second half v Saudi Sportswashing Machine being the exception. On the other hand I dread to think of the number of times we should have lost games this season. Emirates Marketing Project was a freak? Did you watch the West Ham game? The Chelsea game second half? The Hull game? The Saudi Sportswashing Machine game 1st half? Do you watch any of our games?

 

[milo]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

You know what, actually this is entirely why AVB is going to prove to be a c@@@ manager.

You know what's great about football and the reason why it's been slow to catch on with American Sports fans? It's unpredictable! It's fluid, it's off-the-cuff!

The problem with AVB is, he looks at a game, I'm going to set up my little chess pieces here, just so. I'm going to drill them, to stand just here and pass just there, if we achieve X possession in X portions of the pitch, statistically we will concede X chances and create X chances and our win likelihood will be X. He spends all day figuring out the numbers, the positions, the passing domination, telling his players to stand here, stand there, pass here, play it safe, follow the plan, we'd won't concede and after 80 minutes the percentages say they'll be tired and our scoring likelihood will be X.

He spends all week drilling this plan together, and turns up on match day, the team takes the field. ABvB rubs his little hands together surveying his statistically 89 per cent rated winning likelihood team, then ....WTF one of their players has latched onto a through ball and launched a 20 yard dipping volley into our top corner out of nothing on his weak foot that statistically had a 0.0009 per cent chance of scoring.....Fuu@@@@@@@@@k yoooooooooooou AVB !!!!! This is football. It's essentially totally random and is only given order in so far as the better the player the more random moments of genius he can produce....if give the license to try of course

Regression to mean has nothing to do with training, tactics, formations or management techniques. It has nothing to do with AVB and as far as I am aware he has never mentioned it. You should read up on it and then come back. If you quote statistics and/or form and don't understand it, your opinion isn't worth much.

 

[thfcsteff]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

Haha what chances have we missed, we barely create any, second half v Saudi Sportswashing Machine being the exception. On the other hand I dread to think of the number of times we should have lost games this season. Emirates Marketing Project was a freak? Did you watch the West Ham game? The Chelsea game second half? The Hull game? The Saudi Sportswashing Machine game 1st half? Do you watch any of our games?

And it goes on and on and on...do you have something new to add my friend? Not that it's a pre-requisite for the site obviously, it's just so much more interesting for the reader...

 

[NWND]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

Regression to mean has nothing to do with training, tactics, formations or management techniques. It has nothing to do with AVB and as far as I am aware he has never mentioned it. You should read up on it and then come back. If you quote statistics and/or form and don't understand it, your opinion isn't worth much.

Yes, but I don't, as I don't believe in it, not as a substitute for what my own eyes tell me, anyway! What I'm getting at is SVB is like you, in that I think he is obsessed with stats, sometimes at the expense of all logic and reason

 

[NWND]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

And it goes on and on and on...do you have something new to add my friend? Not that it's a pre-requisite for the site obviously, it's just so much more interesting for the reader...

I could say the same about you?

 

[scaramanga]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

But would you just keep wading into s@@@? You know why the stat in that book is a load of balls? It's because good managers don't get sacked and their clubs do alright, you only get sacked if you're crap but then a new manager comes in and arrests the slide therefore clubs that don't sack their managers are the clubs that didn't need to and the ones that did we're the ones that did need to. If anything the fact that both clubs end up in the same position proves the sacking clubs were probably right to pull the trigger - another example of stats over common sense and human reasoning!

Next!

I seem to spend much of my time breaking things down into bite-sized pieces and explaining them to you. You're lucky my son keeps me up all hours so that I have the time to guide you through this thread!

Both the control group and the teams that sacked their managers in the experiment were going through a bad run of form. The results from one group were (on average) the same as the other group. So there isn't any good manager keeps his job/bad manager loses his effect. As with all things regression to mean will take effect.

No need to feel bad about not quite grasping it, this is something that people tend to struggle with if they don't work with stats a lot. It's one of the main reasons alternative medicine does so well - people just don't get regression to mean.

 

[Cochise]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

Can't be bothered to trawl back through it all but Moutinho is a great player who can spot a pass and defend. He would improve any team and there aren't many players in his mould just laying around. Not only that but he costs significantly more than Scott Parker (about 3 times more). Once he was gone AVB must have drawn up a plan and Paulinho was (I would guess) deemed the best choice. I seem to think there were rumours going about that we had been in talks with him as early as November 2012.

Huddlestone. Am I the only one who watched him since he came back from his injury? I loved him but how often he got turned in the middle of the pitch/ lost concentration and got robbed/got shown up for his lack of pace was annoying. Yes the bloke could weight a 40 yard pass like no other, but his all round play was getting worse and he was starting to become a liability. As for Carrol. We have two light weight passers in the team in Holtby and Eriksen, both of whom have Champions league experience. If Carrol had stuck around he would have stagnated.

Ade. The guy only came back into training in September and started spouting how he was no.1 to the press. This is besides the point though. He is the only striker we have who is different. Defoe and Soldado are similar and neither is gonna win an aerial ball. Im with some of the pro AVB people here. The guy gets slated for being too rigid and stubborn yet when he decides things need to change and tries a different approach using a different type of forward he is devoid of ideas. Pick an oppinion please.

Now in my opinion for what it's worth the fault is with AVB and the players. Firstly AVB for not keeping Benny, for not perservering with a lineup and for playing players not in their positions. I also think the players are some of the problem. Dembele and Paulinho have both been dreadful at times (and this was whilst Sandro was injured). At the end of the day though 6-0 to City is everyones responsibility, as players you dig deep and don't let it become something like that.

And finally to those who sang "we'll sing when we're s@@t" at City on the weekend, nice touch, real nice touch. I'd certainly not want to play for a bunch of turd supporters who are happy to take a dig at me, even if it is in a sarcastic way. It sure as hell wouldn't get my chin up. The players knew they had been Pony but didn't need their own fans to sing it at them.

 

[thfcsteff]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

Yes, but I don't, as I don't believe in it, not as a substitute for what my own eyes tell me, anyway! What I'm getting at is SVB is like you, in that I think he is obsessed with stats, sometimes at the expense of all logic and reason

Like you accuse AVB of never changing his tune, would you care to at least alter the pitch of yours?

Somewhere, somehow, I have to confess I think we would end up getting on over a few pints. I suspect you are a good laugh and have a robust sense of humor. Perhaps one day my friend...

 

[thfcsteff]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

Can't be bothered to trawl back through it all but Moutinho is a great player who can spot a pass and defend. He would improve any team and there aren't many players in his mould just laying around. Not only that but he costs significantly more than Scott Parker (about 3 times more). Once he was gone AVB must have drawn up a plan and Paulinho was (I would guess) deemed the best choice. I seem to think there were rumours going about that we had been in talks with him as early as November 2012.

Huddlestone. Am I the only one who watched him since he came back from his injury? I loved him but how often he got turned in the middle of the pitch/ lost concentration and got robbed/got shown up for his lack of pace was annoying. Yes the bloke could weight a 40 yard pass like no other, but his all round play was getting worse and he was starting to become a liability. As for Carrol. We have two light weight passers in the team in Holtby and Eriksen, both of whom have Champions league experience. If Carrol had stuck around he would have stagnated.

Ade. The guy only came back into training in September and started spouting how he was no.1 to the press. This is besides the point though. He is the only striker we have who is different. Defoe and Soldado are similar and neither is gonna win an aerial ball. Im with some of the pro AVB people here. The guy gets slated for being too rigid and stubborn yet when he decides things need to change and tries a different approach using a different type of forward he is devoid of ideas. Pick an oppinion please.

Now in my opinion for what it's worth the fault is with AVB and the players. Firstly AVB for not keeping Benny, for not perservering with a lineup and for playing players not in their positions. I also think the players are some of the problem. Dembele and Paulinho have both been dreadful at times (and this was whilst Sandro was injured). At the end of the day though 6-0 to City is everyones responsibility, as players you dig deep and don't let it become something like that.

And finally to those who sang "we'll sing when we're s@@t" at City on the weekend, nice touch, real nice touch. I'd certainly not want to play for a bunch of turd supporters who are happy to take a dig at me, even if it is in a sarcastic way. It sure as hell wouldn't get my chin up. The players knew they had been Pony but didn't need their own fans to sing it at them.

The Hudd affair is a conundrum. He is a fantastic passer but slow. There again, we haven't been playing with pace! I think he wanted guaranteed we wouldn't give him. At Hull he is the man. SAd really...

 

[NWND]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

I'm absolutely baffled by this post. How do you arrive at the conclusion that good managers didn't get sacked? What made them better than the ones that did? How did these clubs decide that they didn't need to sack the manager in question? How does it prove that sacking clubs are right?

You're baffled?

Well, your book says that clubs that don't sack their managers do the same as clubs that do sack their managers. I'm assuming that your point was that if you stick with the manager, form will recover, statistically.

However this is flawed as I'd bet that the managers that weren't sacked, didn't go through periods of form that needed significant recovery, hence why they didn't get sacked.

You following this so far?

Ok, so the managers that experience bad form get sacked. A new one is brought in who improves the form back to the mean.

So, sacking managers is a necessity in all likelihood to make your book's theory work??

 

[scaramanga]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

Yes, but I don't, as I don't believe in it, not as a substitute for what my own eyes tell me, anyway! What I'm getting at is SVB is like you, in that I think he is obsessed with stats, sometimes at the expense of all logic and reason

Do you believe in gravity? How about evolution?

 

[NWND]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

I seem to spend much of my time breaking things down into bite-sized pieces and explaining them to you. You're lucky my son keeps me up all hours so that I have the time to guide you through this thread!

Both the control group and the teams that sacked their managers in the experiment were going through a bad run of form. The results from one group were (on average) the same as the other group. So there isn't any good manager keeps his job/bad manager loses his effect. As with all things regression to mean will take effect.

No need to feel bad about not quite grasping it, this is something that people tend to struggle with if they don't work with stats a lot. It's one of the main reasons alternative medicine does so well - people just don't get regression to mean.

You patronising **** - **** off ( oh and yes mods you can ban me now and yes, **** you too)!

 

[BrainOfLevy]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

You're baffled?

Well, your book says that clubs that don't sack their managers do the same as clubs that do sack their managers. I'm assuming that your point was that if you stick with the manager, form will recover, statistically.

However this is flawed as I'd bet that the managers that weren't sacked, didn't go through periods of form that needed significant recovery, hence why they didn't get sacked.

You following this so far?

Ok, so the managers that experience bad form get sacked. A new one is brought in who improves the form back to the mean.

So, sacking managers is a necessity in all likelihood to make your book's theory work??

Scara has already explained why you are failing to grasp it. I don't need to mirror his post.

 

[NWND]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

You patronising **** - **** off ( oh and yes mods you can ban me now and yes, **** you too)!

I meant you patronising C U N T - F U C K off!

 

[NWND]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

Do you believe in gravity? How about evolution?

F U C K O F F - you holier than though patronising little C U N T!

 

[thfcsteff]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

Do you believe in gravity? How about evolution?

:ross:
Absolutely...you put yer best gasses out in an attacking formation and...and...life just springs up! Entertaining lif at that.

Seriously, judging by your question, evolution would've been sacked for producing boring, uninteresting lifeforms such as plankton, amoeba and fishy things. No tigers off the bat? OUT! Not entertaining enough! **** the 'plan' we want entertainment immediately...

...speaking of evolution, here we are!!!! Yes, ahem, next...

 

[thfcsteff]

Re: ***The Official AVB Discussion Thread***

F U C K O F F - you holier than though patronising little C U N T!

You've got a better sense of humour, and a thicker skin, than that. Man up FFS and roll with it. You cannot keep bludgeoning people and expect everyone to stay quiet...come on man! Some levity!