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The Official 2015/16 Premier League Thread

SpurMeUp said:
If you're winning by the skin of your teeth - 1 lucky goal - wouldn't your goal difference be lower?

Top teams always appear lucky, but they get the ball in the right areas to create that luck.
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I was right.

Put simply, if you take a roughly average number of shots but they go in at a ridiculously unrepeatable rate, then you score a lot of goals.

Take the unrepeatable element out of Leicester's performance and they're below average goal scorers and above average shot conceders - that does not make for a title winning team.
 
scaramanga said:
So why aren't Palace at the top of the table?

Protip: The difference between Palace and Leicester is luck.

As for playing like that, only underdogs get to play like that - you need space for it. Teams don't give us space because we can play football.
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Forgive me stating the obvious: Palace are not top of the table as they are not as good a side. One could use many quantitative measures to back this up, not least the league table!

No doubt the underdogs thing has been a big motivator for them.

In an era of 'financially doped' clubs, they and us, are a breath of fresh air. Yes they are annoying now (!), but they probably will drop points, and ultimately you have to have admiration for a side put together for less than Lamela cost.
 
I should point out that when I say unrepeatable I mean that I'm working on the assumption Vardy isn't one of the top few strikers in the world.

Obviously it's possible that he is and he's just been pretending to be brick for his whole career in order to orchestrate a surprise Leicester title win.
 
SpurMeUp said:
Forgive me stating the obvious: Palace are not top of the table as they are not as good a side. One could use many quantitative measures to back this up, not least the league table!

No doubt the underdogs things have been a big motivator for them.

In an era of 'financially doped' clubs, they and us, are a breath of fresh air. Yes they are annoying now (!), but they probably will drop points, and ultimately you have to have admiration for a side put together for less than Lamela cost.
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Please do. And then please tell me why such measures don't apply to Leicester.
 
This is torture. A horrible football match combined with the feeling of a last minute winner.
 
scaramanga said:
I was right.

Put simply, if you take a roughly average number of shots but they go in at a ridiculously unrepeatable rate, then you score a lot of goals.

Take the unrepeatable element out of Leicester's performance and they're below average goal scorers and above average shot conceders - that does not make for a title winning team.
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That is simply one measure. An interesting one. But to conclude that luck is the key variable is inferring causation onto a simple correlation :oops:

It might be that their shots are accurate/ potent/ clinical etc. Or that they drug the opposition keeper or any other 3rd variable.
 
So obvious they're going to be camped on the edge of the West Brom penalty area shredding our nerves before they spawn another flukey winner in the fifth minute of injury time. Just score now, FFS and get it over with.
 
SpurMeUp said:
That is simple one measure. An interesting one. But to conclude that luck is the variable is inferring causation onto a simple correlation :oops:

It might be that their shots are accurate/ potent/ clinical etc. Or that they drug the opposition keeper or any other 3rd variable.
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Over that number of shots there are some very predictable averages. They apply to pretty much every team in every league.

The only way to break those limits over the long term is (to state the obvious) by being a really good footballer. Vardy is not one, he's just on a really hot streak.
 
mudshark said:
flukey winner in the fifth minute of injury time
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No chance of that happening. It will be much later than that. The teams will be on the coach and Ranieri will pop in a cheeky winner, whilst massaging David Dein's engorged head.
 
scaramanga said:
Please do. And then please tell me why such measures don't apply to Leicester.
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Goals scored, conceded and league points accrued are 3 quantitative measures off the top of my head that back up Leicester being far ahead of Palace, which applies to Leicester.
 
scaramanga said:
Over that number of shots there are some very predictable averages. They apply to pretty much every team in every league.

The only way to break those limits over the long term is (to state the obvious) by being a really good footballer. Vardy is not one, he's just on a really hot streak.
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Fair play. He has been playing as though he is a top player tho. Its still interesting to hear about the trends and data. Ultimately you make your own luck I believe.
 
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