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Putin & Russia

Rorschach said:
The whole thing is superb, and terrifying.
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Listened to the episode you posted , going to circle back and listen from the start.

Thought it was very good. The ex NATO guy although he stated a lot was unknown the way he was talking felt to me ( could be wrong ) he was pretty certain this is the end of the road for Putins regime moving forward .
 
djp82 said:
Listened to the episode you posted , going to circle back and listen from the start.

Thought it was very good. The ex NATO guy although he stated a lot was unknown the way he was talking felt to me ( could be wrong ) he was pretty certain this is the end of the road for Putins regime moving forward .
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Well I think it is the end for Putin. How he reaches that end I'm not sure, but I hope it involves a lot of pain. This whole invasion was a huge mistake for him in terms of his strategic goals.

To me it feels like a historic shift has happened. A change of epoch like before and after the Berlin wall fell, or 9/11 etc. Something fundamental has changed on a global scale. And just maybe something good might fall out of this mess. This is from Arundhati Roy where she talks about the pandemic as a portal to somewhere else. Unfortunately it is a door we didn't walk through after the pandemic but it seems strangely apt again albeit in a very different context.

"Historically, pandemics have forced humans to break with the past and imagine their world anew. This one is no different. It is a portal, a gateway between one world and the next. We can choose to walk through it, dragging the carcasses of our prejudice and hatred, our avarice, our data banks and dead ideas, our dead rivers and smoky skies behind us. Or we can walk through lightly, with little luggage, ready to imagine another world. And ready to fight for it."
 
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Kandi1977 said:
I have a friend who is a professor, and her doctorate was a publication on economic sanctions. Long story short, they don't work. No regime has ever altered it's politic because of economic sanctions. The top of the pyramid always find ways to get money in and out. It's the general population that suffer from it.
Economic sanctions are easy to implement, but serve as little more than showing that "at least we do something".
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But if it affects the general population they might get tinkled off enough to do something about it, most autocratic rulers time ends because the population eventually says enough is enough. I've not been to Russia to know how western it is but if lots of their favourite shops shut down, airlines stop flying there, bank cards dont work even if they can get away, netflix stops, can't update your phone etc then it will take it's toll.

Does seem like Russia might have been planning for this type of scenario for a while if they have their own internet laws for it, their own version of SWIFT etc but we'll have to see how long people put up with it for.
 
P.D. said:
But if it affects the general population they might get tinkled off enough to do something about it, most autocratic rulers time ends because the population eventually says enough is enough. I've not been to Russia to know how western it is but if lots of their favourite shops shut down, airlines stop flying there, bank cards dont work even if they can get away, netflix stops, can't update your phone etc then it will take it's toll.

Does seem like Russia might have been planning for this type of scenario for a while if they have their own internet laws for it, their own version of SWIFT etc but we'll have to see how long people put up with it for.
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The population has been brainwashed for years that it's all the fault of the western countries, so the effect you think will come, might actually be the opposite. It might instill an even stronger "us against them" attitude.
 
Kandi1977 said:
The population has been brainwashed for years that it's all the fault of the western countries, so the effect you think will come, might actually be the opposite. It might instill an even stronger "us against them" attitude.
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For some probably yeah but there's been sizeable protests for Russia. I wonder if there's a bit of a division between the elder generation around in Soviet Union times and the younger lot.
 
P.D. said:
For some probably yeah but there's been sizeable protests for Russia. I wonder if there's a bit of a division between the elder generation around in Soviet Union times and the younger lot.
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It's mainly just young people in the biggest cities. The vast majority are pretty much unaware of what's going on, and they support Putin.
 
Kandi1977 said:
It's mainly just young people in the biggest cities. The vast majority are pretty much unaware of what's going on, and they support Putin.
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Strange but true my mate in Latvia who lived in the UK is backing Putin. Some people don't like to admit do they. Germany had the same problems coming to terms with its past after World War 2.
 
Presumably countries like Germany USA UK France etc [whilst hating the damage done to innocents in Ukraine] will be very pleased with side effects such as:
Russia wasting huge amounts of their reserve cash
Russia wasting huge amounts of their weaponry
Russia revealing just how bad their army currently is in terms of morale, training, planning, equipment, upkeep

They can send missile launchers and planes to the Ukrainians and sit back as Russia takes hits, without expending the lives of Germans/US/UK/French etc.
They can watch from satellites and see exactly what Russia are doing and calculate what else they have up their sleeves
And also freeze assets of oligarchs and keep the proceeds

By summer Russia could be on it's knees and ripe for whatever the West would like to do to it
 
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Kandi1977 said:
It's mainly just young people in the biggest cities. The vast majority are pretty much unaware of what's going on, and they support Putin.
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It's pretty much this. Putin's support is from the 60% in rural areas who either have no/limited access or state-controlled information.
 
Don't worry Ukraine, the EU is here to save the day!

They've decisively announced that maybe they might possibly, under the right circumstances, consider stopping the purchase of Russian oil and gas.

In 2030.
 
AuroRaman said:
It's pretty much this. Putin's support is from the 60% in rural areas who either have no/limited access or state-controlled information.
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That's still 40% that doesn't support him. In a tightly controlled media environment, with credible opposition being snuffed out in various ways. With both the war and sanctions nowhere near the effects they may end up having.

And those are the stats. To what extent do they actually represent what people think. I'm assuming those are official numbers? Are they accurate? Are people answering truthfully?

For an a democratically elected leader 60% would be really good. For an authoritarian it's not nearly as good imo.
 
AuroRaman said:
It's pretty much this. Putin's support is from the 60% in rural areas who either have no/limited access or state-controlled information.
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I think these sanctions - self imposed by companies - is actually helping Putin. It helps to create an us vs them thing. Ikea closing or McDonnalds doesn't hurt any of those in power, it just helps turn the population towards Putin. I think the West might have missed a trick. They should be keeping the Russian people onside while hitting the elite revenues. Put a ban on transfers over $10,000. Wean ourselves off Russian oil, gas, steel. Announce investment for insulating homes etc ready for next winter. Plan for no gas from Russia next winter. Hitting people who are not well off in Russia plays into Putins hands and actually boosts his narrative and popularity.
 
SpurMeUp said:
I think these sanctions - self imposed by companies - is actually helping Putin. It helps to create an us vs them thing. Ikea closing or McDonnalds doesn't hurt any of those in power, it just helps turn the population towards Putin. I think the West might have missed a trick. They should be keeping the Russian people onside while hitting the elite revenues. Put a ban on transfers over $10,000. Wean ourselves off Russian oil, gas, steel. Announce investment for insulating homes etc ready for next winter. Plan for no gas from Russia next winter. Hitting people who are not well off in Russia plays into Putins hands and actually boosts his narrative and popularity.
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Of all the things you've mentioned, the only one that matters is gas.

Stop using Russian gas and the war ends in days.
 
SpurMeUp said:
I think these sanctions - self imposed by companies - is actually helping Putin. It helps to create an us vs them thing. Ikea closing or McDonnalds doesn't hurt any of those in power, it just helps turn the population towards Putin. I think the West might have missed a trick. They should be keeping the Russian people onside while hitting the elite revenues. Put a ban on transfers over $10,000. Wean ourselves off Russian oil, gas, steel. Announce investment for insulating homes etc ready for next winter. Plan for no gas from Russia next winter. Hitting people who are not well off in Russia plays into Putins hands and actually boosts his narrative and popularity.
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I disagree, I think the reverse, this is something the person on street notices instantly, and they can probably work out why it’s happened.
 
Russia is a dismal land just festering whilst waiting for a new ice age to scrape off 14000 years of accumulated droppings.

Personally I do not feel sorry for the average Josef as it is his own sterile hostile society. Their lunatic leaders invariably come from poor backgrounds and follow well trodden paths of subjugation and brutality to get to the top.

Putin is the best representation of that nation. The mode and the median and certainly the meanest. He is only mortal but a million like him wait in the shadows.

They really could do with an injection of fresh dna and ideas.
 
braineclipse said:
That's still 40% that doesn't support him. In a tightly controlled media environment, with credible opposition being snuffed out in various ways. With both the war and sanctions nowhere near the effects they may end up having.

And those are the stats. To what extent do they actually represent what people think. I'm assuming those are official numbers? Are they accurate? Are people answering truthfully?

For an a democratically elected leader 60% would be really good. For an authoritarian it's not nearly as good imo.
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I was just agreeing with the post I replied to. It’s what has historically kept him in power but if the right information is available to those in rural areas or without access to real news, it could creat a groundswell of support in favour of toppling him.
 
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