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Putin & Russia

P.D. said:
I don't really get whats in it for Russia? I mean I can understand they'd like either an expanded Russia or puppet government but surely they must know that's never going to happen. They'll just get sanctions which will cripple them long term and lead to unrest and likely the eventual downfall of Putin. Wouldn't surprise me if he gets assassinated.
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They won't get any sanctions that will cripple them until Germany stops buying their gas (which they won't).

For every drop in value of their currency, oil and gas increase in price. They're absolutely fine and will be until Germany stops posing and does something of substance.
 
Uniqlo makes a good point. This is a war between politicians.


Uniqlo owner pledges to stay in Russia amid wave of companies exiting

[https://liveblog]

Fast Retailing, Asia’s largest retailer and parent company of Uniqlo, will continue to operate in Russia even as international pressure to isolate the country for its invasion of Ukraine sees waves of companies pull out.

"Clothing is a necessity of life. The people of Russia have the same right to live as we do," Chief Executive Officer Tadashi Yanai said, according to emailed remarks first published by Nikkei.

While Mr Yanai is against the war, and urged every country to oppose it, all 50 Uniqlo stores will continue to operate in Russia.


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So you can abandon your home's and safely evacuate to Belarus or Russia.

'Ah Mr Putin, our lord and saviour....Дякую'
 
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scaramanga said:
Hopefully that pushes people towards using VPNs, which will allow them to see a wider band of news coverage.
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How should they pay for the service, even if it was available? Haven't checked, but I'd assume there are not too many VPN services who accepts the russian Mir payment platform yet...

What we should do is of course to allow free access to vpn services for any individual in russian geolocation. And start spreading that service though the grapevine.
Unfortunately it is rather managable for the authorities to shut down access to such regular services if they control the countrys main ISP.

Which is why BBC among others have been trying to entice people in Russia on to the dark web, to use the Tor browser. Yet again, it is quite possible for the authorities to block that access, and Russia attempts to do that. But I think people in Russia soon must start to realize that the walls built around them is rather high, thick and oddly enough pointing towards them, not out.
When a regime is more dedicated to prevent you from reaching out to information rather than other sources from getting in, you should start to ask why.
 
scaramanga said:
They won't get any sanctions that will cripple them until Germany stops buying their gas (which they won't).

For every drop in value of their currency, oil and gas increase in price. They're absolutely fine and will be until Germany stops posing and does something of substance.
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I'm yet to see anyone I would see as an expert agree with you on this point. Maybe I'm just not paying enough attention to that side of this?

Been quite a few reports/opinions that the sanctions will have severe effect over time.
 
braineclipse said:
I'm yet to see anyone I would see as an expert agree with you on this point. Maybe I'm just not paying enough attention to that side of this?

Been quite a few reports/opinions that the sanctions will have severe effect over time.
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True. Also, if the sanctions weren't effective, why would they keep their stock market closed for a full week, with no clear communication regarding when and how it shall reopen?
This hurts them, and it will only get worse.
 
scaramanga said:
Not if we sign them into NATO before the Poundland Napoleon can get boots across the border.
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I applaud the creativity in names for the despot in chief. Most of my immediate suggestions would stop in the swear filter. Horseless Khan?

NATO membership takes time. Can't be done in a week.

Russia looks over extended already. Seems like they're mobilising further of course, but an invasion of another country, expanding the war to even more fronts. If that's at all a solid plan there's something I'm missing (would not surprise me).
 
It's interesting how many companies have imposed their own bans on Russia. They can call the UK financial sanctions an act of war, but they can't threaten Apple, Microsoft and Dell for example, the Russian public should be able to read between the lines.
 
braineclipse said:
I'm yet to see anyone I would see as an expert agree with you on this point. Maybe I'm just not paying enough attention to that side of this?

Been quite a few reports/opinions that the sanctions will have severe effect over time.
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The UK and the US have been pushing Germany hard. If the sanctions were doing the job, why would they be pushing to go further?
 
braineclipse said:
I applaud the creativity in names for the despot in chief. Most of my immediate suggestions would stop in the swear filter. Horseless Khan?

NATO membership takes time. Can't be done in a week.

Russia looks over extended already. Seems like they're mobilising further of course, but an invasion of another country, expanding the war to even more fronts. If that's at all a solid plan there's something I'm missing (would not surprise me).
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NATO sets its own rules. No good reason why NATO members couldn't decide to offer temporary (3 month) membership to anyone in Eastern Europe who wants it with full membership pending the paperwork and all the bits that take time.

Russia is over extended in the North but it would be quite some feat to get the Southern troops to move far enough to support them. I can't see what difference it would make for them to use the Southern troops to push West.
 
scaramanga said:
The UK and the US have been pushing Germany hard. If the sanctions were doing the job, why would they be pushing to go further?
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I think it's a natural part of a process like this. Sanctions escalating over time due to pressure from multiple fronts and as countries figure out their priorities and how to deal with sanctions on their side.

Just because sanctions will be effective doesn't mean further sanctions couldn't/shouldn't be put into place for stronger and possibly quicker effects.

A quicker, stronger, more coordinated response would have been better, but these things are difficult I imagine. Loads of different interests to weigh up for different leaders. That's part of the difference between democracies and autocratic regimes.

One of the bad outcomes of sanctions would be strong internal opposition to sanctions in countries imposing sanctions. There needs to be a willingness to continue these sanctions for however long this lasts. Therefore getting them right is imo more important than imposing them quickly. Needs to be a fairly overwhelming internal support.
 
scaramanga said:
NATO sets its own rules. No good reason why NATO members couldn't decide to offer temporary (3 month) membership to anyone in Eastern Europe who wants it with full membership pending the paperwork and all the bits that take time.

Russia is over extended in the North but it would be quite some feat to get the Southern troops to move far enough to support them. I can't see what difference it would make for them to use the Southern troops to push West.
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Again, risk of further escalation is where we disagree.

I notice I don't know enough about the strength of the Russian military to have strong opinions on likely ways this will go next.
 
scaramanga said:
NATO sets its own rules. No good reason why NATO members couldn't decide to offer temporary (3 month) membership to anyone in Eastern Europe who wants it with full membership pending the paperwork and all the bits that take time.

Russia is over extended in the North but it would be quite some feat to get the Southern troops to move far enough to support them. I can't see what difference it would make for them to use the Southern troops to push West.
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You realise russia have these?

https://www.military.com/equipment/weapons/why-russias-hypersonic-missiles-cant-be-seen-radar.html

It's possible they could nuke us without retaliation. Putin hinted at it in a meeting with trump. Telling him that russia had them. Trump the idiot he is, said "well we'll get them soon too".
 
scaramanga said:
The UK and the US have been pushing Germany hard. If the sanctions were doing the job, why would they be pushing to go further?
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the US could be doing more. The way to do is flood the market with oil and gas, subsidies for extraction and purchase of non Russian oil and gas.

make the price of oil and gas tank.

might not be good for the environment, but then neither is nuclear war.
 
scaramanga said:
NATO is made up of governments held up by electorates. The most important thing to any of them is staying in power.

We can insist on it.
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Bar a bit of virtual signalling no one actually cares. As unpalatable as it is that is the truth.

Everyone is more concerned about Joe it impacts on their own life's then doing the right thing.
 
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