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Predict The Run In

Spursalot said:
Jees that's close. I'm still confident though looking at the fixtures.
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you'd have to back arse to get 7 points from their final 4, meaning we need 13 from our 6 (4 wins and a draw) to come above them.

I think cheatski will beat Villa, Everton and Swansea and get 2 points from Liverpool, ManU and us - that gets them to 72.

We really need a point at Stamford bridge and then 4 wins from the other 5
 
raceforcli.jpg


pointsdifferencetottenh.jpg
 
TottenhamChelseaArsenal
Chelsea (A)Tottenham (H)
Wigan (A)Swansea (H)Man Utd (H)
Southampton (H)Man Utd (A)QPR (A)
Stoke (A)Aston Villa (A)Wigan (H)
Sunderland (H)Everton (H)Saudi Sportswashing Machine (A)

I'll weight the teams as follows, expected number of points in brackets (home/away):

Top 1: Man Utd (0/0, anything here is a bonus)

CL contenders: Emirates Marketing Project, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal, Everton (1/1, 8 points in total)

Mid table: Sunderland, Swansea, West Brom, Stoke, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Fulham, Norwich, West Ham, Southampton, Liverpool (3/1, 40 points in total)

Bottom 4: QPR, Wigan, Reading, Aston Villa (3/3, 24 points in total)

If anyone matched this over the course of a season they would get 72 points. It's mostly intended to rate the different run ins and you never know when teams will start to switch off towards the end of the season.

As it stands:

Arsenal 63
Chelsea 62
Tottenham 61
Everton 56

Predicted outcome:

Tottenham 72 (11/15 points won)
Arsenal 70 (7/12 points won)
Chelsea 70 (8/15 points won)
Everton 62 (6/12 points won)

Using last season's results from the same fixtures:

Chelsea 72
Tottenham 71
Arsenal 64
Everton 62

Key Matches:

Arsenal - Man United
Man United - Chelsea
Liverpool - Everton
Chelsea - Tottenham
Chelsea - Everton
 
The key game is Arsenal-United. United have started a wobble and if Arsenal win that game I think ECL next year is out for us. Conversely if they lose I can see them collapsing.
 
onlyme said:
The key game is Arsenal-United. United have started a wobble and if Arsenal win that game I think ECL next year is out for us. Conversely if they lose I can see them collapsing.
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I think Chelsea are in more trouble than Arse. They go to Basel on Thurs and then have Swansea on Sun then the return game against Basel then Utd on the Sunday. They could easily draw v Swansea given their run of games and lose at Utd....and then they play us on the Wed!
 
AdamB said:
I think Chelsea are in more trouble than Arse. They go to Basel on Thurs and then have Swansea on Sun then the return game against Basel then Utd on the Sunday. They could easily draw v Swansea given their run of games and lose at Utd....and then they play us on the Wed!
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I am annoyed that Everton lost to Sunderland. They have no chance of top 4 after that result. Which means that the Chelsea-Everton game will be meaningless for the Toffees.
There are a lot of permutations and a lot of interesting games to come. It would be poetic justice if we get top 4 at the expense of Chelsea...and Rafa wins the FA and Europa cup and gets sacked!!
It is in our own hands now..that is the main thing.
 
Think Arsenal will get 7points from their 4 games..

And we'll get 9pts from our five games.

Thats us and arsenal on same level with them getting there with goal difference.

Think Chelsea will be alright for 3rd to be honest.
 
onlyme said:
I am annoyed that Everton lost to Sunderland. They have no chance of top 4 after that result. Which means that the Chelsea-Everton game will be meaningless for the Toffees.
There are a lot of permutations and a lot of interesting games to come. It would be poetic justice if we get top 4 at the expense of Chelsea...and Rafa wins the FA and Europa cup and gets sacked!!
It is in our own hands now..that is the main thing.
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They'll still want to finish above Liverpool
 
charlietheyid said:
Think Arsenal will get 7points from their 4 games..

And we'll get 9pts from our five games.

Thats us and arsenal on same level with them getting there with goal difference.

Think Chelsea will be alright for 3rd to be honest.
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Really? They've got to go to Old Trafford, have us, and their other games (away at Villa and home to Everton and Swansea) wont be easy given the volume of their games
 
Using the BBC Predictor, I just had it going down to the last day:

Chelsea - Swansea (WIN), Man Utd (DRAW), Tottenham (WIN), Aston Villa (WIN)
Arsenal - Man Utd (LOSE), QPR (DRAW), Wigan (WIN)
Tottenham - Wigan (WIN), Southampton (WIN), Chelsea (LOSE), Stoke (DRAW)

Leaves this going into final day:

3rd. Chelsea - 72pts
4th. Tottenham - 68
-----------------------------
5th. Arsenal - 67
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Shows how crucial points are. I mean going by this season Chelsea will most probably drop points, I just don't know where hence the wins. Aston Villa away is a potential banana skin for sure, they play decent football and Benteke and Wiemann can easily cause problems for them. A loss at Old Trafford and we'll see how Arsenal react, shows how important points are, for example if Arsenal got a point at home to Man Utd they'd be above us in the prediction table on goal difference.

Thing is, this is with me being a bit pessimistic and saying we're going to lose to Chelsea and draw away at Stoke. I mean we might nick a point at the Britannia, I'm sure we've probably got a better record there than we do at home against them for example. Going into the last day, I'd say you probably have to favour us too.

I think Chelsea will beat Everton. Saudi Sportswashing Machine really are playing brick but I'm not convinced Arsenal can go there and pick up all 3 points comfortably. I think we have the easiest with Sunderland. No disrespect to Sunderland but I think they'll be on there holidays by then.
 
Mumorn said:
Using the BBC Predictor, I just had it going down to the last day:

Chelsea - Swansea (WIN), Man Utd (DRAW), Tottenham (WIN), Aston Villa (WIN)
Arsenal - Man Utd (LOSE), QPR (DRAW), Wigan (WIN)
Tottenham - Wigan (WIN), Southampton (WIN), Chelsea (LOSE), Stoke (DRAW)

Leaves this going into final day:

3rd. Chelsea - 72pts
4th. Tottenham - 68
-----------------------------
5th. Arsenal - 67
--

Shows how crucial points are. I mean going by this season Chelsea will most probably drop points, I just don't know where hence the wins. Aston Villa away is a potential banana skin for sure, they play decent football and Benteke and Wiemann can easily cause problems for them. A loss at Old Trafford and we'll see how Arsenal react, shows how important points are, for example if Arsenal got a point at home to Man Utd they'd be above us in the prediction table on goal difference.

Thing is, this is with me being a bit pessimistic and saying we're going to lose to Chelsea and draw away at Stoke. I mean we might nick a point at the Britannia, I'm sure we've probably got a better record there than we do at home against them for example. Going into the last day, I'd say you probably have to favour us too.

I think Chelsea will beat Everton. Saudi Sportswashing Machine really are playing brick but I'm not convinced Arsenal can go there and pick up all 3 points comfortably. I think we have the easiest with Sunderland. No disrespect to Sunderland but I think they'll be on there holidays by then.
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Now thats true! :)
 
AdamB said:
Really? They've got to go to Old Trafford, have us, and their other games (away at Villa and home to Everton and Swansea) wont be easy given the volume of their games
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Yeah think they have more experience and still have the better squad.

I dont believe for one second we'll get anything at Chelsea. They'll beat us, Villa, Everton, Swansea. 10 or 12 pts out of these 4 games. And they will give United a good game as they always do.

So I think we'll be challenging Arsenal for 4th and will be Saudi Sportswashing Machine fans on the 18th, last day of the season.
 
Definitely in our hands. We play before both Chelsea and Arsenal next week, a win brings us into 3rd and we'll see if there is any added pressure on Chelsea and Arsenal. We also play before both of them the following week too I believe, Arsenal have the late kick off against Wigan so if we beat Southampton too and go 3rd once again, we may just see a tense and nervy Arsenal side, especially if Wigan are fighting.
 
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I have done the predictor a few times and i have 4th and 5th (us and Chelsea) being split on GD. And not in a good way.
 
No draws......I genuinely think we'll lose at Chelsea and win the other 4. Will that be enough? I've no idea as I try not to look at fixtures table much
 
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