Parklaner81
Steve Hodge
I haven't said there was one. I agree that regulation was inadequate, but that doesn't discount the point made about the style of that regulation.
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Politics, politics, politics
- Thread starter markysimmo
- Start date
I haven't said there was one. I agree that regulation was inadequate, but that doesn't discount the point made about the style of that regulation.
Parklaner81
Steve Hodge
I don't disagree with any of this, it's entirely fair - as long as it is recognised that securitisation needs to be handled far more carefully than it was the first time around, wherever in the chain that may be.
Fair enough, my mistake. I thought you had agreed with Scara, and from what I understand, he thinks that there was too much regulation (I might be wrong, which is why I have tried to get him to clarify that position).
Parklaner81
Steve Hodge
I agreed with the point he made about principles vs. rules-based controls, not the overall level of regulation applied.
The wrong type of regulation.
Definitely but it was safe as houses within the context that lending remained the same and all models and valuation had a constant default rate (taken from the past 30ys or so ) . What wasn't recognised until much later was it would disrupt the market for lending, it showed a regulation gap in this market that should not have been there, and for me this is the underlying problem.
I was with bloomberg at the time and valuation of the instruments was a growing part of the business (attended a lot of conferences with businesses and regulators ) and it really was not even a consideration that this may happen it was not underhand it really was unforseen that this would be a consequence.
It's easy to forget how much the banks were in charge of policy at the time after a decade of growth and success.
Parklaner81
Steve Hodge
What's your opinion on this issue as it stands today? Do you feel it's been addressed? There's been an awful lot of talk about debt piles again recently.
If we are talking about the financial institutions they are in a much better way since the crash. A big cause of the problems was valuation, its all right to buy and sell rubbish if you knew it was rubbish but at the time they had junk that they thought was Triple A. I wont go into much detail but pricing of non-liquid and complex securities is sound now, and if you cant value it then its not worth you holding it. Added to this there is no appetite for really complex instruments any more, prior to the crash they were adding additional complexities to get a few basis points meaning valuation was nigh on impossible, no one wants to buy these anymore. And thirdly, the compliance department has gone from the airing cupboard in the back office everyone tried to ignore to a major team with major funding that you need to get say so to do anything, most of the major investment I am seeing is to ensure they meet regulations. That's not to say there wont be dodgy stuff that comes out (they are bankers after all) but it wont be systematic or institutionalised imo.
Regarding personal debt I am by no means an expert, its just a house of cards waiting to fall, but I have been thinking this for the past 15 years. It has (especially housing) moved from economical issue to a political issue. Look at successive governments propping up the housing prices (help to buy ISAs /shared ownership etc) when in reality they need to fall substantially, whoever is in power when the 30%+ fall happens will be decimated so they pass the buck to next lot. My house has nigh on doubled in 5 years, great but I have two kids so for them to get on the market when they are older will be a lot harder, I feel like the rises are just stealing from the next generation.
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nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
Britain would be welcomed into the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal with "open arms" after it leaves the EU, Japan's prime minister has said.
While the UK would lose its role as a gateway to Europe after Brexit, it would retain its "global strength", Shinzo Abe told the Financial Times.
He also urged the UK and EU to use "wisdom" to avoid a no-deal scenario.
The TPP is a trade agreement between 11 countries, including Japan, Canada, Australia and Malaysia.
US President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the agreement last year, soon after entering the White House.
Mr Abe's comments are likely to be welcomed by Brexit supporters, who argue Britain would be able to strike trade deals more easily outside the EU.
The UK is due to leave the EU on 29 March 2019.
The UK would only be able to join the bloc if it left the EU customs union and was able to set its own tariffs. In the interview Mr Abe also expressed concern about a no-deal scenario.
"I hope that both sides can contribute their wisdom and at least avoid a so-called disorderly Brexit," he said.
He argued a transition period was essential for Japanese firms, saying, "I truly hope that the negative impact of Brexit to the global economy, including Japanese businesses, will be minimised."
Japan is a major investor in the UK, where more than 800 Japanese businesses employ more than 100,000 people.
But in the run-up to Brexit several Japanese financial firms have said they intend to move their main EU bases away from London and electronics giant Panasonic has said it will move its European headquarters from the UK to Amsterdam.
Talks on the terms of the UK's withdrawal and its future relations with the EU are entering a critical phase ahead of a summit of European leaders next week.
On Wednesday, the EU is due to publish updated proposals for future co-operation as well as more details of its no-deal contingency plans but the BBC's Europe editor Katya Adler said these could now be delayed.
Brussels, she added, was anxious not to do anything that could imperil the chance of an agreement by the middle of November and wanted to meet the UK's concerns without crossing their own red lines.
The UK is also expected to update its own proposals for its so-called Northern Ireland backstop - an insurance policy intended to stop the return of physical infrastructure on the border with the Republic of Ireland.
The BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg said this could involve an increase in "light touch" checks on products and goods away from the border until a more comprehensive solution was agreed.
Media reports suggest Tory Brexiteers might be willing to accept such a temporary customs arrangement extending beyond the end of 2020 - when the UK-EU's proposed transition period will cease.
Former Tory MP Stewart Jackson, who until July was an adviser to ex-Brexit secretary David Davis, said this had been their view for some time but also that Eurosceptics would not allow it to continue indefinitely.
While the UK would lose its role as a gateway to Europe after Brexit, it would retain its "global strength", Shinzo Abe told the Financial Times.
He also urged the UK and EU to use "wisdom" to avoid a no-deal scenario.
The TPP is a trade agreement between 11 countries, including Japan, Canada, Australia and Malaysia.
US President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the agreement last year, soon after entering the White House.
Mr Abe's comments are likely to be welcomed by Brexit supporters, who argue Britain would be able to strike trade deals more easily outside the EU.
The UK is due to leave the EU on 29 March 2019.
The UK would only be able to join the bloc if it left the EU customs union and was able to set its own tariffs. In the interview Mr Abe also expressed concern about a no-deal scenario.
"I hope that both sides can contribute their wisdom and at least avoid a so-called disorderly Brexit," he said.
He argued a transition period was essential for Japanese firms, saying, "I truly hope that the negative impact of Brexit to the global economy, including Japanese businesses, will be minimised."
Japan is a major investor in the UK, where more than 800 Japanese businesses employ more than 100,000 people.
But in the run-up to Brexit several Japanese financial firms have said they intend to move their main EU bases away from London and electronics giant Panasonic has said it will move its European headquarters from the UK to Amsterdam.
Talks on the terms of the UK's withdrawal and its future relations with the EU are entering a critical phase ahead of a summit of European leaders next week.
On Wednesday, the EU is due to publish updated proposals for future co-operation as well as more details of its no-deal contingency plans but the BBC's Europe editor Katya Adler said these could now be delayed.
Brussels, she added, was anxious not to do anything that could imperil the chance of an agreement by the middle of November and wanted to meet the UK's concerns without crossing their own red lines.
The UK is also expected to update its own proposals for its so-called Northern Ireland backstop - an insurance policy intended to stop the return of physical infrastructure on the border with the Republic of Ireland.
The BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg said this could involve an increase in "light touch" checks on products and goods away from the border until a more comprehensive solution was agreed.
Media reports suggest Tory Brexiteers might be willing to accept such a temporary customs arrangement extending beyond the end of 2020 - when the UK-EU's proposed transition period will cease.
Former Tory MP Stewart Jackson, who until July was an adviser to ex-Brexit secretary David Davis, said this had been their view for some time but also that Eurosceptics would not allow it to continue indefinitely.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
I think the TPP will be a good step away from the hegemony of Brussels. Create a bit of clear blue water with some decent size players, who aren't America or China.
Japan, Canada, Australia and New Zealand in particular are progressive international partners it will do us no harm to move towards.
Japan, Canada, Australia and New Zealand in particular are progressive international partners it will do us no harm to move towards.
Danishfurniturelover
the prettiest spice girl
Brown stole my pension. He is a one eyed cnut I hope he rots in hell.
The country will go bust under Corbyn it is what always happens under Labour governments but at least we will see real progress and an improvement in society. It is why I will vote for him.
Brown said an end to boom and bust then did not pay down the debt in the good economy he inherited to give himself a buffer for the inevitable bust.
He increased tax credits for work shy scum to pretend they were on long term sick, which was just a way of buying votes as so many of those lay abouts are Labour voters. He also sold off the nation's gold.
But most of all he fudged me and my pension. I hope he suffers some awful tragedy.
Gilzeantoscore
Justin Edinburgh
A TPP will involve governments giving up sovereignty over a range of issues, including environmental protection, labour relations and a host of other responsibilities. I would not support it.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
It's all very weak compared to the EU. It's still on the enablers of trade, not enablers of political union, side of the line. It's better since the US pulled out too.
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
In all the conversations about the next stage in British politics, the focus quickly turns to the need for a "Macron moment".
Is it possible in Britain's parliamentary democracy, the conversations go, to imagine a version of the 2017 French presidential election?
Emmanuel Macron, a semi-outsider, vanquished France's two largest parties. And he also defeated Marine Le Pen, who had put in the far-right Front National's strongest ever performance in a presidential election.
Yet until now the thinking has always been that it would be impossible to enter Downing Street directly via this route.
Unlike in France, where the president is directly elected by the people, the British prime minister (a humble head of government) has to command the confidence of parliament.
British prime ministers have to earn their spurs on the backbenches and on opposition or government frontbenches before they are seen as a serious contender for high office.
Jeremy Corbyn, a backbencher for 32 years, started to rewrite these rules in 2015 when he managed to appeal - over the heads of the parliamentary Labour party - to grassroots members thirsting for change.
If he makes it to No 10, it would qualify as a mini-Macron moment, although he would by then have been auditioning for the part as opposition leader for around half a decade.
In the Conservative party the younger generation of MPs are wondering whether they may be able to provide a truer Macron moment - finding a candidate to leap frog over the older generation and straight into No 10.
I understand that conversations are being held among the younger generation of Tory MPs, elected in 2015 and 2017, to find an agreed candidate to support once Theresa May stands down.
I am told that if the prime minister were to be forced out in the near future they would hold back and wait for the following leadership contest. But if she were to go at a time of her own choosing in the next few years then they would field a candidate.
There are some bright and impressive Conservative MPs elected in the last two elections. Many of them are, to put it mildly, fed up with the current contenders who command the headlines.
They believe that Boris Johnson and Michael Gove should be disqualified because they both failed in spectacular fashion during the 2016 leadership contest. Many believe that Jacob Rees-Mogg would be divisive because he is so closely associated with one side on Brexit.
No telephone lines are being installed and no campaigns are being organised. But these are the five candidates who are, whether they like it or not, being tipped to create a Tory Macron moment. Listed in alphabetical order of their constituencies they are:
But the five all have one thing in common. They are seen either as potential unity candidates should the Conservative party wish to end its Brexit civil war or they simply stand out as candidates it would be impossible to ignore.
If one were to emerge it would not be an exact Macron parallel because they are, unlike the French president in 2017, parliamentarians. But unlike Macron, none of the possible contenders has served in cabinet.
A rule of thumb in politics at the moment is to be wary of making predictions. But one thing is clear: the next generation of Tories is growing mightily impatient with their seniors.
Is it possible in Britain's parliamentary democracy, the conversations go, to imagine a version of the 2017 French presidential election?
Emmanuel Macron, a semi-outsider, vanquished France's two largest parties. And he also defeated Marine Le Pen, who had put in the far-right Front National's strongest ever performance in a presidential election.
Yet until now the thinking has always been that it would be impossible to enter Downing Street directly via this route.
Unlike in France, where the president is directly elected by the people, the British prime minister (a humble head of government) has to command the confidence of parliament.
British prime ministers have to earn their spurs on the backbenches and on opposition or government frontbenches before they are seen as a serious contender for high office.
Jeremy Corbyn, a backbencher for 32 years, started to rewrite these rules in 2015 when he managed to appeal - over the heads of the parliamentary Labour party - to grassroots members thirsting for change.
If he makes it to No 10, it would qualify as a mini-Macron moment, although he would by then have been auditioning for the part as opposition leader for around half a decade.
In the Conservative party the younger generation of MPs are wondering whether they may be able to provide a truer Macron moment - finding a candidate to leap frog over the older generation and straight into No 10.
I understand that conversations are being held among the younger generation of Tory MPs, elected in 2015 and 2017, to find an agreed candidate to support once Theresa May stands down.
I am told that if the prime minister were to be forced out in the near future they would hold back and wait for the following leadership contest. But if she were to go at a time of her own choosing in the next few years then they would field a candidate.
There are some bright and impressive Conservative MPs elected in the last two elections. Many of them are, to put it mildly, fed up with the current contenders who command the headlines.
They believe that Boris Johnson and Michael Gove should be disqualified because they both failed in spectacular fashion during the 2016 leadership contest. Many believe that Jacob Rees-Mogg would be divisive because he is so closely associated with one side on Brexit.
No telephone lines are being installed and no campaigns are being organised. But these are the five candidates who are, whether they like it or not, being tipped to create a Tory Macron moment. Listed in alphabetical order of their constituencies they are:
- James Cleverly, Tory deputy chairman and MP for Braintree since 2015. An accomplished communicator, he is one of the few Tories to have commanded social media with a combination of humour and political bite.
- Bim Afolami, ministerial aide in the transport department and MP for Hitchin and Harpenden since 2017. A former corporate lawyer, he is fast emerging as one of the smartest thinkers and communicators of his Tory generation.
- Vicky Atkins, Home Office minister and MP for Louth and Horncastle since 2015. Among the first of her intake to be appointed a minister, she is a Cambridge-educated lawyer who worked as a barrister before entering parliament.
- Kemi Badenoch, Conservative vice-chair and MP for Saffron Walden since 2017. Her highly regarded warm-up speech at the Conservative conference in 2017 was overlooked after Theresa May's disastrous performance.
- Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the commons foreign affairs select committee and MP for Tonbridge and Malling since 2015. The former army intelligence officer stamped his mark on Westminster when he won election as chair of the committee just two years after entering parliament.
But the five all have one thing in common. They are seen either as potential unity candidates should the Conservative party wish to end its Brexit civil war or they simply stand out as candidates it would be impossible to ignore.
If one were to emerge it would not be an exact Macron parallel because they are, unlike the French president in 2017, parliamentarians. But unlike Macron, none of the possible contenders has served in cabinet.
A rule of thumb in politics at the moment is to be wary of making predictions. But one thing is clear: the next generation of Tories is growing mightily impatient with their seniors.
ShipOfTheseus
Clint Dempsey
The Macrons are on the other side of the house.
Point of order: the source should be acknowledged, especially with an opinion piece. Add a link, or attribute it to young Nick Watt, BBC (I didn't know he'd left the Graun!), a couple of days ago. Otherwise we're all going to assume that you're a world-weary pundit who gets nonsense about Toryboys dripped into your ear by drunken MPs and their coke-addled SpADs. Even if that is your day job, best to keep it quiet.
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
Fair point, normally I catch the author in the C&P:
Nicholas WattNewsnight political editor
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45785004
Nicholas WattNewsnight political editor
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45785004
ShipOfTheseus
Clint Dempsey
It's fairly obvious that there isn't a majority of Conservative MPs who want a leadership election or who want a general election. So either the government falls (possible) or we're stuck with May for a while. And yeah, she's likely to be replaced by someone who isn't in the frame right now. Other than that, there's three hundred of the bastards, and not much to be read from Watt profiling the five who he hopes will return the favour and give him gossip.
ShipOfTheseus
Clint Dempsey
Apropos, your boy Watt has just tweeted the following.
Now that's definitely interesting. And makes a leadership contest rather more likely. Although given Sinn Fein's abstentions, a budget could possibly get through even without the DUP.
[edit - no, it couldn't. The maths gets complicated by the various independents and the Speaker's team, but looks like May would fall short. Note though, there's no obligation on the govt to have a budget in Nov, as long as a finance act is passed by the start of next fiscal year.]
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nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
"my boy"!? 
Definitely interesting though.
Definitely interesting though.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
I'm not sure Macron is the best example. He's not very popular domestically and is pretty much a rehash of what Hollande was 6 years ago.
A better example would be Trudeau, Ardern, Di Maio or even Obama.
I like what I've seen of James Cleverly (though I keep thinking of the novelist James Clavell)
A better example would be Trudeau, Ardern, Di Maio or even Obama.
I like what I've seen of James Cleverly (though I keep thinking of the novelist James Clavell)