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Politics, politics, politics

In their hearts they all want it. It's the financial burden that's the concern.

It's not quite like West Germany having to absorb East Germany (and certainly not like South Korea will have to one day do with North), but there is a big wealth imbalance
It is a wealth imbalance that I suggest could be solved with special case status for the province as part of Brexit negotiations.
 
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The Catholics are already the majority. But they don't become the voting age majority until about 2022 or 2023.

The Good Friday Agreement says that when that comes to pass, there can be something called a border poll, when everyone votes if they want to be part of Ireland or Britain. If Ireland gets 50% + 1 vote, then NI becomes Irish. The Orange Order nutjobs will just have to lump it, the same as the IRA nutjobs have done for the last 100 years.

But we're really in the endgame now

Does this take account of the tendency for cross-sectarian voting? I'm by no means especially well-informed on this, but I understand its a small but significant occurence in NI politics?
 
Does this take account of the tendency for cross-sectarian voting? I'm by no means especially well-informed on this, but I understand its a small but significant occurence in NI politics?

There's some, but I think it mainly comes from Polish Catholics not identifying as nationalists.
 
There's some, but I think it mainly comes from Polish Catholics not identifying as nationalists.

My understanding was that it went a little deeper than that, and cut both ways. But as I say, I can't claim to be especially well informed.

I don't believe its an entirely clear-cut matter, though. For example, what would become of the common travel area post-brexit and united Ireland? If it were to be abolished, how would that influence (especially Catholic) voting patterns? Just thinking out loud.
 
My understanding was that it went a little deeper than that, and cut both ways. But as I say, I can't claim to be especially well informed.

I don't believe its an entirely clear-cut matter, though. For example, what would become of the common travel area post-brexit and united Ireland? If it were to be abolished, how would that influence (especially Catholic) voting patterns? Just thinking out loud.

That would just be a bilateral mater between Britain and Ireland wouldn't it - the same as it has been for the last 100 years? The people it wouldn't affect would be those in NI, as they can all have both passports/nationalities (if they wish). It's Brits and Southern Irish that it might affect, but that won't be any different no matter what happens with NI.
 
That would just be a bilateral mater between Britain and Ireland wouldn't it - the same as it has been for the last 100 years? The people it wouldn't affect would be those in NI, as they can all have both passports/nationalities (if they wish). It's Brits and Southern Irish that it might affect, but that won't be any different no matter what happens with NI.

Yes, but again I don't think it's entirely clear-cut.

Going on the assumption that the UK brexits, Ireland unites and the common travel area is abolished, wouldn't a Northern Irish (presumably nationalist) Catholic have to then apply for/retain a British passport in order to remain eligible for common travel area-style benefits? I can see that causing a fair amount of ideological grappling...!

Even if this example doesn't completely hold water, I'm sure there are all kinds of nuances to the issue that make it less of a done deal than you suggest.
 
Why would the common travel area be abolished though? It pre-dates the EU by 60 or 70 years? You just accept British and Irish passports as equivalent to each other. The only change with Brexit is we send EU26 passport holders to the RoW queue.
 
That's simply not true and I'm not sure where you've got such information. MFN only applies to countries with which we do not have a trade agreement (or RTA in WTO terms). It's all on the WTO website if you want to read about it.

Step through what you've claimed and see if you can see the logical problem. Both Canada and the EU trade with much of the world on WTO terms. Both are members of the WTO and both have agreed to the principles and procedures which that membership requires. Yet they have both come to a trade agreement to trade at lower than MFN terms and neither have to trade with the rest of the world on those terms.

That's because the EU and Canada have a trade agreement (RTA) to do so.


See the above - the world is trending towards zero tariffs, the EU is remaining in a protectionist bubble.


I've spoken, personally, to people with enough control in their banks (admittedly not CEOs) to know the short, medium and long term planning inside-out. Not a single one of them is planning on moving more than a small number of jobs into the EU to brass plate their EU business.

What they say publicly is attempting to avoid that cost, but there is no way any of them will be moving from London - as much as anything because those who make the decisions don't want to.


Because it has to. The EU attempted to pass a law that ensured all Euro transactions were completed within the Eurozone and the ECJ struck it down.


Can I have some sauce with that please?


London's rise started well before the close integration of the EU. London was the world's financial capital before New York was and it swung back to London with the Big Bang and low regulation (something the EU has been continually trying to restrict).

London is also perfectly placed in terms of time zones, overlapping with all the major financial centres. Our legal system creates a very predictable and certain outcome for anyone who requires it, and Europe doesn't even come close to us in terms of protecting the rights of shareholders and creditors (from the World Bank here: http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings). There's no comparison in terms of education either - not if you're looking at top level economics (http://www.shanghairanking.com/SubjectEcoBus2015.html). Europe also only has one Masters of Finance program to our four.

Mainly though, those making those decisions want to be somewhere everyone speaks English. They want their kids to stay in English schools and they don't want to have to commute halfway across Europe. They want to be able to walk across the street to have lunch with the head of their insurers or their audit partner and they want to live in the city they know and have arranged their lives around. London's place as a centre of finance didn't start with the EU, it started with British Empire and has been building on it for centuries. There's an infrastructure and an inertia that something as short-lived as the EU simply cannot budge in its short lifetime.


Nobody invests on uncertainty - that's just not how business works. Look at how investment stopped before the referendum, picked up again after and has now slowed as the deadline draws near.

I'm not surprised that manufacturers are moving to lower wage countries - that's how manufacturing works. Unless you have a unique product with no competition you continually engineer out costs. My business has an overseas arm where labour is cheaper - I'd expect that of most companies. If we want that kind of work (and I'm not convinced we do) then we need to set our stall out as a low wage, low regulation country.


Just because you don't comprehend an opinion doesn't make it nonsense. If economics was as simple as listening to what someone else tells you and agreeing with them why are we even having this discussion? Why didn't you just agree with me ages ago and save yourself the bother?

Do Canada or the EU trade on 0 tariffs? Patently they don't, as you outline they trade on WTO terms or FTA agreed terms. Therefore it doesn't support your assertion that the UK will have cheaper imports than now. FTAs via the EU lead to cheaper tariffs or no tariffs from EU nations. The likelihood is that imports will become more expensive at least in the short term. Especially since the pound will weaken if we have a hard brexit.

We'll see about the banks, they won't all go, but imo Paris would become the EU hub and London more peripheral. It wouldn't happen overnight necessarily, but over time. And the trend has started already with the EU financial regulator set to leave London, and at least 2 banks moving people into the continent.

What is the investment uncertainty regarding? Answer: Britain's access to the customs union. Are you suggesting that if it was confirmed that no we don't have access anymore, the uncertainty would dissipate, and all that investment would flood back into the UK? If was just uncertainty, and nothing to do with access and open trade with the customs union, why not invest now?

It's too easy to say 'oh you don't understand'. I understand your bias and logic. Quite simply, if you look at all the economic projections and who the authors of the studies are, then there is a weight of evidence that contradicts your outlook. Your economic projections are so off the median that you could say they resemble quacks or pseudoscience.

I respect you for thinking outside the box, not following the dominant position, questioning things and making your own calculations. But I get the impression the calculations are made to support your bias, and are not a balanced perspective. If you had to present the counter economic argument for remain would you find it hard to do? I am happy to attempt the reverse.
 
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. Your economic projections are so off the median that you could say they resemble quacks or pseudoscience.

I respect you for thinking outside the box, not following the dominant position, questioning things and making your own calculations. But I get the impression the calculations are made to support your bias, and are not a balanced perspective. If you had to present the counter economic argument for remain would you find it hard to do? I am happy to attempt the reverse.
Oh my........you've gone and done it now!:D

Put him in a box......just not that box.
 
Why would the common travel area be abolished though? It pre-dates the EU by 60 or 70 years?

I've no idea whether it would be or not. But Northern Ireland out of the UK and the UK out of the EU are pretty significant relationship changes that would surely at least bring its continuation into question?
 
It appears that they are up to the old tricks of saying one thing in Parliament in order to get their MPs on side and another in Europe, you would think they would have realized that this is reported in Europe and they tell the true situation and then they have an embarrassing climb-down, maybe this time it will be different.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-rule-taker-dominic-raab-claims-politics-live

Raab suggests UK will stop its £39bn payment to EU if Brussels stalls on trade talks after Brexit
Raab says, if the government found that, having agreed the withdrawal agreement, progress towards a trade deal slowed down, there would be consequences, including to UK’s payments to the EU.


This is new. At a committee hearing earlier this year, Suella Braverman, the junior Brexit minister, said the £39bn payment was unconditional; there was nothing in the withdrawal agreement that would guarantee a good trade deal would have to follow, she conceded. (She had a wretched time being questioned about this; you can find some of the exchanges here.)

In a recent report on the Brexit negotiations, the Commons Brexit committee highlighted this issue. It said:

A legally binding agreement on the UK’s future relationship can only be agreed once the UK is a third country. If the UK government wishes to make the payment of the financial settlement conditional on reaching a binding agreement on the future relationship, it would need to secure the agreement of the EU27 to inserting text to this effect in the withdrawal agreement. We note that the government has not yet secured a clause in the withdrawal agreement linking the financial settlement to the satisfactory conclusion of negotiations on the framework for the future relationship. We call on the government to confirm whether the inclusion of such a clause is one of its negotiating objectives.
 

Until the next crisis in 20 minutes. She is defined by her crisis managment. Its what she does well. But should we be in a crisis position constantly? The big problem she hasn't solved (yet) is how to get out of Brexit! I wouldn't put it past her though, but it would have to appear as though its not coming from her, but the country or parliment. She's no leader of ideas and men - to take a stand and outline what is the right thing for the nation.
 
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