Politics, politics, politics

[SpurMeUp]

I'm amazed at how slowly logic around Brexit seems to develop and filter into political and national consciousness. Initially the arguments for a against Brexit were slow to develop, but you can forgive that as initially it was new territory and complex. By the end of the campaign many of the issues had been outlined. It was testament to Leave's campaign (well funded we know now) that they kept the economy out of the debate and focused on immigration. Quite a few of the real issues never even made it into the debate - the Irish border didn't seem to feature then.

Then post vote, many of the Leave promises started to be shown to be undeliverable. But sentiment for Brexit remained strong.

Now, with Milo's polls showing a clear shift in popular thinking about Brexit, politicians are blinkered, caught up in their personal battles and maneuvers, and unable to move things forward quickly to cancel Brexit; and then focus on addressing some of the principals that people wanted from Brexit from within the EU. But Instead of advance, the UK will flounder for some months more, without any majority in parliament to deliver anything. For a long time there has been simple equation readily apparent:

1. Hard Brexit is disastrous for the UK.

2. Soft Brexit is similar to what we have now, but worse for the UK, with less sovereignty and impaired trade. The only 'plus' is maybe, but not necessarily, we'll exercise some control on free movement.

3. Remaining in the EU is the best option for the UK.

When will this penny drop?

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

Come now. You can’t seriously be suggesting that people use anonymous Internet discussion boards for oneupmanship.

Well I never do, I go to debate groups in church halls on a Sunday night for that.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

I'm amazed at how slowly logic around Brexit seems to develop and filter into political and national consciousness. Initially the arguments for a against Brexit were slow to develop, but you can forgive that as initially it was new territory and complex. By the end of the campaign many of the issues had been outlined. It was testament to Leave's campaign (well funded we know now) that they kept the economy out of the debate and focused on immigration. Quite a few of the real issues never even made it into the debate - the Irish border didn't seem to feature then.

Then post vote, many of the Leave promises started to be shown to be undeliverable. But sentiment for Brexit remained strong.

Now, with Milo's polls showing a clear shift in popular thinking about Brexit, politicians are blinkered, caught up in their personal battles and maneuvers, and unable to move things forward quickly to cancel Brexit; and then focus on delivering on the some of the sentiment that people wanted from Brexit. Instead of advance, the UK will flounder for some months more, without any majority in parliament to deliver anything. For a long time there has been simple equation readily apparent:

1. Hard Brexit is disastrous for the UK.
2. Soft Brexit is similar to what we have now, but worse for the UK, with less sovereignty and impaired trade. The only 'plus' is maybe, but not necessarily, we'll exercise some control on free movement.
3. Remaining in the EU is the best option for the UK.

When will this penny drop?

If the political elite think that the public will accept that they now live in a country where you have no control on who you let in and what sort of direction you take the country then they are setting themselves up for something far bigger down the line.

Also never got the notion that keeping some sort of a distance from them was a bad thing as we have never got them to make any real concessions. The EU is for German manufacturing, French farming and to make a bunch of far left civil servants feel better about themselves.

 

[SpurMeUp]

If the political elite think that the public will accept that they now live in a country where you have no control on who you let in and what sort of direction you take the country then they are setting themselves up for something far bigger down the line.

Also never got the notion that keeping some sort of a distance from them was a bad thing as we have never got them to make any real concessions. The EU is for German manufacturing, French farming and to make a bunch of far left civil servants feel better about themselves.

It’s also seen the UK go from sick man of Europe to a real powerhouse.

What would you prefer, soft Brexit, with less sovereignty, and a little less EU trade; or Hard Brexit, which might be pretty anarchic. All car manufacturers and investment banks would move into the EU, the value of the pound would plummet, they’d be queues at all ports, shops would not have stocks of imported items, we’d have problems with imported medicine and a divided Ireland with a new generation of Irish militants bombing border posts.

Which option appeals?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[Gilzeantoscore]

I think that says a lot more about what Labour are offering as an alternative than it does the Conservatives.

Really? What did the Tories promise at the last election? Stability wasn't it? Ha, ha, ha. Enjoying your stability yet Scara?

 

[scaramanga]

Really? What did the Tories promise at the last election? Stability wasn't it? Ha, ha, ha. Enjoying your stability yet Scara?

Not sure why that's aimed at me - I'm no fan of the party. I'll vote for anyone who keeps taxes low and stays out of my business - May's Conservatives fail on both counts.

That said, none of this instability compares to the downright economic destruction that Corbyn's policies would clearly lead to.

 

[Gutter Boy]

What a complete cluster fudge this all is.

I was just thinking. This big show of rage by leavers might actually help us to get the medium Brexit (no FoM and customs/ECJ restrictions on goods only) that the EU perhaps wouldn't otherwise have permitted. They see May is hanging by a thread, and would prefer not to have to deal with her successor.

The ERG possibly aren't pushing the nuclear button yet, because they know the threat could be more useful

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

The EU arent going to conceed anything.

They didnt with good ole Dave, and theyve done nothing but try and screw us now, thats not changing.

Only a proper Hard Brexit, IMO, will get them to the table to talk sensibly. Until then they will just keep calling our bluff.

You would think the referendum result would have been a wake up call to them, but clearly their arrogance is strong.

 

[scaramanga]

The EU arent going to conceed anything.

They didnt with good ole Dave, and theyve done nothing but try and screw us now, thats not changing.

Only a proper Hard Brexit, IMO, will get them to the table to talk sensibly. Until then they will just keep calling our bluff.

You would think the referendum result would have been a wake up call to them, but clearly their arrogance is strong.

As I said earlier in the thread - Send them our terms as they stand and tell them that the next message we respond to will be a full and total acceptance of them. Then noisily start planning for a WTO Brexit.

There's no point in us compromising if they won't, so at this point it's all or nothing. May has already given them just about everything and the terms she set out recently give them even more. It now has to be take it or leave it.

 

[Gutter Boy]

It’s also seen the UK go from sick man of Europe to a real powerhouse.

What would you prefer, soft Brexit, with less sovereignty, and a little less EU trade; or Hard Brexit, which might be pretty anarchic. All car manufacturers and investment banks would move into the EU, the value of the pound would plummet, they’d be queues at all ports, shops would not have stocks of imported items, we’d have problems with imported medicine and a divided Ireland with a new generation of Irish militants bombing border posts.

Which option appeals?

The recovery was just to do with the bounce back from the triple whammy of war exhaustion, losing an empire and spending to set up a social welfare system. There's not necessarily causality by joining the EEC. Japan went on a similar journey through the 70s and 80s without the EEC and did better than we did.

Our manufacturing has long been decimated. The companies looking to move out are the ones that killed off British industry. Leaving the EU will be a chance to reboot homegrown manufacturing. And financial services are a leach on the economy that actively supress industrial strategies and provide almost no down trickle, so we'll be better off without them.

I'm not too down actually on medium Brexit, where we are allowed to join the TPP and start building up those associations, and then can go for the full Brexit 2.0 when the NI border poll happens.

 

[Gutter Boy]

The EU arent going to conceed anything.

They didnt with good ole Dave, and theyve done nothing but try and screw us now, thats not changing.

Only a proper Hard Brexit, IMO, will get them to the table to talk sensibly. Until then they will just keep calling our bluff.

You would think the referendum result would have been a wake up call to them, but clearly their arrogance is strong.

You are probably right

Although Guy Verhofstadt (I know he's the slightly 'special' one) did say 'association agreement' yesterday, which implies they are perhaps thinking Ukraine (no FoM, goods-only) too

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

There's no point in us compromising if they won't, so at this point it's all or nothing.

Thats pretty much my thinking.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

You are probably right

Although Guy Verhofstadt (I know he's the slightly 'special' one) did say 'association agreement' yesterday, which implies they are perhaps thinking Ukraine (no FoM, goods-only) too

That could work.

This is the annoyance for me, the EU have clearly compromised the fabled 4 freedoms before, more than once. There is no reason why they shouldnt again.

 

[SpurMeUp]

The EU arent going to conceed anything.

They didnt with good ole Dave, and theyve done nothing but try and screw us now, thats not changing.

Only a proper Hard Brexit, IMO, will get them to the table to talk sensibly. Until then they will just keep calling our bluff.

You would think the referendum result would have been a wake up call to them, but clearly their arrogance is strong.

Well done for figuring that out.

The EU have their setup why should they change their underlying principles for an ex-member? To do so would undermine their existing members. This was obvious from the start. Brexit is screwing the UK, not the EU.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[SpurMeUp]

The recovery was just to do with the bounce back from the triple whammy of war exhaustion, losing an empire and spending to set up a social welfare system. There's not necessarily causality by joining the EEC. Japan went on a similar journey through the 70s and 80s without the EEC and did better than we did.

Our manufacturing has long been decimated. The companies looking to move out are the ones that killed off British industry. Leaving the EU will be a chance to reboot homegrown manufacturing. And financial services are a leach on the economy that actively supress industrial strategies and provide almost no down trickle, so we'll be better off without them.

I'm not too down actually on medium Brexit, where we are allowed to join the TPP and start building up those associations, and then can go for the full Brexit 2.0 when the NI border poll happens.

There is some causal evidence for EEC helping the UK prosper - see the FT article quoted previously.

It’s simple logic - free access to a market of 500m will be of benefit to companies who export. It will also make our companies efficient and competitive - world leaders often.

How can losing manufacturing and banking jobs to the EU be a good thing? it’s a triple whammy itself - individuals earn less, the Exchequer loses income tax revenue and the state has to pay benefits to unemployed workers.

Where will the new jobs come from, and why are we not creating these new companies now? What is stopping us?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[Gutter Boy]

There is some causal evidence for EEC helping the UK prosper - see the FT article quoted previously.

It’s simple logic - free access to a market of 500m will be of benefit to companies who export. It will also make our companies efficient and competitive - world leaders often.

How can losing manufacturing and banking jobs to the EU be a good thing? it’s a triple whammy itself - individuals earn less, the Exchequer loses income tax revenue and the state has to pay benefits to unemployed workers.

Where will the new jobs come from, and why are we not creating these new companies now? What is stopping us?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

The idea would be to grow manufacturing jobs, but sustainable ones; not big mulitnationals that sulk and disappear when they can't keep importing cheap labour from poorer parts of the world

EU competition and state aid laws , which are there to protect the neo-liberal establishment, are what stops us now

 

[scaramanga]

It’s also seen the UK go from sick man of Europe to a real powerhouse.

Thatcher says "fudge you, you ingrate."

What would you prefer, soft Brexit, with less sovereignty, and a little less EU trade; or Hard Brexit, which might be pretty anarchic. All car manufacturers and investment banks would move into the EU, the value of the pound would plummet, they’d be queues at all ports, shops would not have stocks of imported items, we’d have problems with imported medicine and a divided Ireland with a new generation of Irish militants bombing border posts.

Which option appeals?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

Allow me to rephrase that.

What would you prefer? A soft Brexit where the 85% of our GDP that doesn't trade with the EU has to face added costs of complicance, where import costs are artificially inflated because the EU doesn't want to compete with the rest of the world. One where the rest of the world gets on with building up low tariff trade and relationships whilst Europe shuts itself off with some outdated notion of 1970s protectionism. Where we're forced to pay in and out of work benefits to anyone who chooses to claim them and their families (whilst it's clear that a young, migrant worker contributes more than they take, a single income migrant family takes significantly more). Where eventually the realisation that financial harmonisation between such disparate countries as Germany and Greece simply cannot work and the whole silly experiment implodes in a fireball of debt.

Or would you prefer a Brexit where the UK insulates itself from the inevitable financial mess that a single currency will create. One where we are able to set the rules and regulations that suit us for the vast, vast majority of non-EU trade. One where we can massively decrease our import costs and open up exports to the 84% of world trade that isn't the EU. One where we can compete against the EU for all the things we're good at and set taxes and regulations at levels that suit our domestic agenda. One where we get to use immigration as the economic lever it is, rather than some all-you-can-eat benefits buffet.

 

[Gutter Boy]

That could work.

This is the annoyance for me, the EU have clearly compromised the fabled 4 freedoms before, more than once. There is no reason why they shouldnt again.

Its also worth noting we're only asking for 1 of the 4 freedoms (goods), not 3. We're not asking for capital or services either

So in a sense it's not cherry picking - it's accepting the minimum we have to because of NI

 

[scaramanga]

There is some causal evidence for EEC helping the UK prosper - see the FT article quoted previously.

It’s simple logic - free access to a market of 500m will be of benefit to companies who export. It will also make our companies efficient and competitive - world leaders often.

How can losing manufacturing and banking jobs to the EU be a good thing? it’s a triple whammy itself - individuals earn less, the Exchequer loses income tax revenue and the state has to pay benefits to unemployed workers.

Where will the new jobs come from, and why are we not creating these new companies now? What is stopping us?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

Free access to a market of 500m will be of benefit to the 13% of our trade that trades with the EU, but almost every single business in the UK is paying higher import costs (upstream, if not directly) due to EU protectionism.

Why would we lose banking jobs in any significant number? The major banks are already putting brass plates in the EU - our low regulation and low tax regime would make it incredibly difficult for them to move anything significant out of the UK. Manufacturing from cheaper parts will offset much of any EU benefit.

New jobs will come from profit, which will come from trade being more free and reduced government interference. That's about as simply as I can state it, if you need more guidance, try:

 

[DTA]

I was just thinking. This big show of rage by leavers might actually help us to get the medium Brexit (no FoM and customs/ECJ restrictions on goods only) that the EU perhaps wouldn't otherwise have permitted. They see May is hanging by a thread, and would prefer not to have to deal with her successor.

The ERG possibly aren't pushing the nuclear button yet, because they know the threat could be more useful

Listen Bruv. I will explain EU27 negotiating position to you leavers so you can understand.

1st choice:
They want UK to have Norway style Brexit that's their first choice as it means we are basically in the same state as we are now. But can't have a say. This suits them best as the UK have influenced the direction of Europe in ways that they may not agree with, in the past.

2nd choice

Call the whole thing off. As you were. let's forget Brexit never happened.

3rd choice
Hard Brexit, the result of which will be damaging to EU but catastrophic for the UK. This would be used to make sure that countries thinking about leaving will shut the fudge up and tow the line.

4th choice

what you call middling Brexit.

5th choice
unicorn cum, cake and eat it, Brexit empire Mk2

So Hard Brexit doesn't scare them as much as you leavers think it does. It's kind of in middle of all options for them.

Now I fully expect the leavers to chime in and tell me I am wrong... But it's you guys that have been wrong up to this point... So what's changed?