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Politics, politics, politics

The EU already split the 4 freedoms for their association agreements with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.

I've felt for a while that the Ukrainian model was the only way to square this to everyone's satisfaction.

All ex-soviet nations. They have a special setup/dispensation as the US and EU tried to draw them away from Russia's control.
 
Equally had the EU been more cordial and malleable, they might have stemmed the ever growing tide of Euroscepticism, whereas now they've broadened and strengthen the general level of hostility towards the priesthood.

Any rejoin movement is going to have to wait a lot longer than a generation for any benefit of doubt to return.

What is seriously funny, is that people think a club should change its rules for an ex-member. If it did all the members would say we want the same setup and the EU would cease. How can anyone lament the EU sticking to its setup? Its like asking the UK to change its constitution for New Zealand to exit the commonwealth. Bizarre that people are unable to understand. Or they just want a convenient other to blame? But then isn't that the crux of Brexit.
 
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I don't think there is any way the UK will officially remain in the EU. But I do think a soft-Brexit will happen, as a Norway deal can be reached very quickly and there will be little time for anything else. Parliament won't allow us to crash out of the EU wit no-deal imo, unless May is toppled and Rees-Mogg or some other like-minded nut becomes PM. But then I think Parliament would produce a no-confidence vote in the government (they need to get 2/3rds now, is that right?) and then there will be a general election. So May being toppled and a GE win for the Tories led by a hero of hard-Brexit is the only way it will happen, and I don't think it's likely.

A Norway-esque fudge. Which might turn out ok.

How would you sell the UK having less sovereignty under the Norway model? Who thinks its a good idea to have all the 'downsides' of the EU - free movement, paying into the EU, EU court - with none of the good sides - setting international trade regulations to aid our exporters. For example, the highly successful British pharmaceutical companies have more or less dictated EU trade regulations on drugs. The EU regulator was based in London and it allowed British pharma companies to compete toe to toe with US pharmaceuticals.

So the logical progression of pursuing the Norway model is that we're better off as we are, than reducing our sovereignty further.

The hardline all or nothing Brexiteers will actually bring about remain imo. As a soft Norway option is not worthwhile. Its palatable to Remainers, but abhorrent for Leavers as its the same but a little worse than now.
 
How would you sell the UK having less sovereignty under the Norway model? Who thinks its a good idea to have all the 'downsides' of the EU - free movement, paying into the EU, EU court - with none of the good sides - setting international trade regulations to aid our exporters. For example, the highly successful British pharmaceutical companies have more or less dictated EU trade regulations on drugs. The EU regulator was based in London and it allowed British pharma companies to compete toe to toe with US pharmaceuticals.

So the logical progression of pursuing the Norway model is that we're better off as we are, than reducing our sovereignty further.

The hardline all or nothing Brexiteers will actually bring about remain imo. As a soft Norway option is not worthwhile. Its palatable to Remainers, but abhorrent for Leavers as its the same but a little worse than now.

There was a good graphic that (I think) @milo posted awhile ago and I think there are some selling points on it. I think I saved it to my computer, if I find it, I will post it here (I found it):

eea.jpeg

The main selling point, of course, is that we honour the referendum result as written -- we leave the EU. That's what that was on the ballot. Remainers will moan that we might as well have stayed in. Leavers will moan that we haven't properly left. The perfect compromise, nobody is happy. How British of us.
 
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The Norway model will leave us worse off than we are now I agree.

But Brexit in any form will leave us worse off. And Norway model less so.

The will of the people said we leave. They didn't say how... So even though the Norway model will probably suit none of us. It is a way of accept of the result of the refendum but not alienating the remainers.

But if the Brexitiers want another ref along the lines of:

1)Hard Brexitiers 2) Norway Model 3) remain

Then yeah ok we can go for that as well.
 
In the association agreements, there's freedom of goods, capital and services, but no freedom of movement.

Barnier's fampus powerpoint actually suggests that the Ukraine model is on the table for them, as a half-way between Norway and Canada

5a394c31160000783ecf2154.jpeg


The only additional border that would be needed would be for EU26 citizens leaving Belfast and Dublin air/sea ports
 
What is seriously funny, is that people think a club should change its rules for an ex-member. If it did all the members would say we want the same setup and the EU would cease. How can anyone lament the EU sticking to its setup? Its like asking the UK to change its constitution for New Zealand to exit the commonwealth. Bizarre that people are unable to understand. Or they just want a convenient other to blame? But then isn't that the crux of Brexit.

But that sums up the EU. It's become a powerful independent 3rd party, detached from the interests of its constituent members. You can't make the EU better by allowing it to become shallower, because then all the countries would want that? That's the thing Britain has been banging its head on the wall about for the last 25 years
 
Apparently the association agreements cover 98-99% of business, with a few tariffs remaining on agriculture and metal, neither of which I think we are particularly big exporters of

If the EJC was rolled back for just being about technical decisions relating to the trade of goods, I could see that as being tolerable. It's where it has supremacy over matters relating to citizens and government that it is so unpalatable
 
FoM, restrictions on RoW trade and a budget contribution as big as EU membership have always been the more fundamental problems with that

The thing we need is something that lets the ECJ apply to just the 13% of our trade that is with the EU, rather than the 87% that is domestic and RoW
 
They havent budged on anything, and they have basically bullied them, weakening an already flustered UK side.


Also why should they be? What kind of warped thinking is this?

You see, this is the thing.

You lot bang on about the EU as some sort of liberal eutopia, all about the little guy etc. Categorically NOT a protectionist bloc, a political behemouth or anything. Its all sunshine and rainbows.

And yet, someone wants to leave the club and its rules, but still remain on terms - and the EU has been anything but sunshine and rainbows.

They have set about punishing us (and yes, I know incompetence on our side doesnt help).

All this cake and eat it gonads from their side - we want to trade, and only trade, why is that such taboo?


"Oh but that means others will want a good deal and leave"

What does that tell you? Utopia my ass.

This should be simple. It should be easy. If not free trade, then some sort of fee to facilitate or something like that - business keeps turning and money keeps flowing on either side.

They have that same sort of agreement with Canada, have a different sort of agreement with Ukraine, so its not like there isnt precedent.

As Ive said, since the EU has shown itself to be so petty and punitive Im actually more resolved to leave it, who even wants to be a part of an institution like that?

Another referendum Ill be voting out/hard brexit/anything but the EUs bitch.
 
What about non-tariff barriers? The impact on delays at borders is far greater on UK manufacturing and agriculture than it would be for Ukraine because the volumes are much greater, business is used to operating without them and supply chains have been built on this basis.

Apart from the huge differences in the size of the economies, the other key difference is that Ukraine is looking to converge with EU standards and we are looking to diverge, the latter is a lot more difficult to build into an agreement.

Again we need that flexibility where 13% of our economy (that trades with the EU) has to comply and does so to the EU's satisfaction, whereas the rest doesn't need to
 
I don't see why. You could have one production line building diesel cars in cms for the EU, and another building petrol cars in inches for the US. That kind of thing

Our manufacturing and agriculture sectors have also been pretty decimated over the past 40 years - there's not much left of them. Brexit should be a massive opportunity to rebalance our economy and rebuild these.
 
They havent budged on anything, and they have basically bullied them, weakening an already flustered UK side.




You see, this is the thing.

You lot bang on about the EU as some sort of liberal eutopia, all about the little guy etc. Categorically NOT a protectionist bloc, a political behemouth or anything. Its all sunshine and rainbows.

And yet, someone wants to leave the club and its rules, but still remain on terms - and the EU has been anything but sunshine and rainbows.

They have set about punishing us (and yes, I know incompetence on our side doesnt help).

All this cake and eat it gonads from their side - we want to trade, and only trade, why is that such taboo?


"Oh but that means others will want a good deal and leave"

What does that tell you? Utopia my ass.

This should be simple. It should be easy. If not free trade, then some sort of fee to facilitate or something like that - business keeps turning and money keeps flowing on either side.

They have that same sort of agreement with Canada, have a different sort of agreement with Ukraine, so its not like there isnt precedent.

As Ive said, since the EU has shown itself to be so petty and punitive Im actually more resolved to leave it, who even wants to be a part of an institution like that?

Another referendum Ill be voting out/hard brexit/anything but the EUs bitch.

The EU would be fine with us having a Canada style deal. Our government don't want that, as I'm guessing they figure that sort of deal in place of EU membership would be too damaging to the economy. If Canada wanted all the benefits of EU membership, the EU would not have given them that. There are obligations as well as benefits in any kind of union.

I don't know how many people think the EU is perfect or a utopia, I certainly don't. I don't think freedom of movement is without it's problems and I do think it's unfair when put alongside what immigrants from other parts of the world have to go through to be here, even if they are married to a British citizen. But I find the problems associated with the EU more tolerable than our country being sold down the river to US corporate interests and becoming a low regulation, low workers rights economy. And that is what the architects of Brexit are about, along with some of their puppets in the cabinet.

You don't want us to be the EU's bitch, fair enough. But we are going to be aligned closely with someone, because all countries of our size are part of some sort of bloc. Norway and Switzerland have different setups, but are still closely aligned with the EU because it makes sense. I don't want this country becoming the bitch of corporate America. I'd rather be aligned with the EU, for all it's faults.
 
The EU would be fine with us having a Canada style deal. Our government don't want that, as I'm guessing they figure that sort of deal in place of EU membership would be too damaging to the economy. If Canada wanted all the benefits of EU membership, the EU would not have given them that. There are obligations as well as benefits in any kind of union.

I don't know how many people think the EU is perfect or a utopia, I certainly don't. I don't think freedom of movement is without it's problems and I do think it's unfair when put alongside what immigrants from other parts of the world have to go through to be here, even if they are married to a British citizen. But I find the problems associated with the EU more tolerable than our country being sold down the river to US corporate interests and becoming a low regulation, low workers rights economy. And that is what the architects of Brexit are about, along with some of their puppets in the cabinet.

You don't want us to be the EU's bitch, fair enough. But we are going to be aligned closely with someone, because all countries of our size are part of some sort of bloc. Norway and Switzerland have different setups, but are still closely aligned with the EU because it makes sense. I don't want this country becoming the bitch of corporate America. I'd rather be aligned with the EU, for all it's faults.

The point is not the Canada deal specifically, rather that the EU can be flexible when it chooses.

I really dont know where things will end up post Brexit, but Im more and more inclined to really break the establishment and build it again than I am to just end up in the EU in all but name.
 
Right, so both parties have an opening stance - and one parties opening position was in direct contradiction of the others point of view. No hint of compromise then or since.

Despite, for example, FoM not being an issue for the Canada deal. So they are prepared to compromise, but just not with us.
 
The point is not the Canada deal specifically, rather that the EU can be flexible when it chooses.

I really dont know where things will end up post Brexit, but Im more and more inclined to really break the establishment and build it again than I am to just end up in the EU in all but name.

I take your point, but I think if a hard-brexit was about breaking the establishment, then the likes of The Sun newspaper wouldn't be so vociferous in their support of it. This is more like the establishment fighting amongst themselves for how to shape the future of the country. I don't think it's going to all come crashing down and be built up again, that's not the plan of Banks, Rees-Mogg etc anyway.
 
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