Politics, politics, politics

[r-u-s-x]

there have been lots of comments (not by you) since the vote that "see Brexit has not hurt the economy" and "it was all just a scare" etc that those experts predicting a downturn were incorrect and we shouldn't trust experts.

I am guessing this reaction is largely in response to this.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I have, at no point, expressed a belief in an upwards bounce.

I have, consistently, expressed the belief that the state of the economy at this time is indicative only of the state of things at this time.

Which is a messy period between knowing that change is coming, but not knowing what that change is. Investment kryptonite.

It is not an indicator of the future. The future is completely up in the air, which is why the economy looks like it does now.

For example, we come out of this with a soft brexit deal, keep our financial passport and free trading rights - will the economy stay as it is or improve?

Conversely, we come out with a hard brexit/cliff edge and the obvious period of chaos afterwards, will the economy stay as it is now or get worse?

So, your "effects of Brexit" post - what does it prove? Nothing. If anything it just confirms what we all expected to happen. It says absolutely nothing of the future, and just confirms the obvious int he present.

I am confused. So you don’t think the economy will necessarily improve after this transition period? Previously you seemed to be saying it was expected that the economy would suffer now. Intimating things would improve when things settle. Now you’re saying we’ll suffer now and we don’t know if things will get better or worse?

If so where is the good in Brexit? When will we get the good news? When will we see the positives and what might they be?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

there have been lots of comments (not by you) since the vote that "see Brexit has not hurt the economy" and "it was all just a scare" etc that those experts predicting a downturn were incorrect and we shouldn't trust experts.

I am guessing this reaction is largely in response to this.

Most likely. I think some upset was always expected.

If it were the case of "We are going to leave, and this is whats going to happen next" I would have expected a shift in the economy based upon the "next" but for the whole thing to be relatively stable. IE - an adjustment and then things settling (for better or worse)

As it is we said "We are going to leave, and youll find out what that means in two years!" - which of course leaves a huge gap and uncertainty, so it is only reasonable to expect pretty much exactly what has happened.

I am confused. So you don’t think the economy will necessarily improve after this transition period? Previously you seemed to be saying it was expected that the economy would suffer now. Intimating things would improve when things settle. Now you’re saying we’ll suffer now and we don’t know if things will get better or worse?

If so where is the good in Brexit? When will we get the good news? What will we see the positives and what might they be?

I really think you have been mis reading my posts. Maybe its me, or maybe you are reading with a prejudiced view of my position, its the internet - it happens.

I am saying the economy was always going to suffer now. Thats a fact, in isolation. Im saying it is entirely expected and in no way suggests the future state of things, which I think is the connection you were making (incorrectly, imo).

Also, your insistence on looking for good in Brexit is somewhat premature. I dont blame you, of course, but until we know what form Brexit is going to take, how can we possibly infer the positives? We have got only so far as agreeing a divorce bill, the "good" comes later (if at all!).

As it is, I think @scaramanga did a good job of spelling out possible positives - which seem to have gone largely ignored.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I agree Nayim but once we know what Brexit really looks like - or possible Brexit options - we need a sovereign uk vote.

Whether parliament or the people in another vote.

People should be able to see what immigration controls we’ll get. Whether Brexit will affect their job/prospects etc. and decide. That has to be fair given a) the lack of clarity about what Brexit will bring and b) the lack of clear advantages of Brexit while our economy has declined.

I’m all for positive revolutions. Making changes for the better. What concerns me is there is no clear Brexit vision. The one written by Daniel Hannon was deleted. All these staunch leavers, you’d think they would have a vision of this better place that were aiming for. But short of Scara outlining how the free market is GHod, voters are stupid and the EU shouldn’t regulate medical care, I haven’t seen a positive post Brexit blue print. That, more than anything else, is deeply concerning. Why is it too early to aim for something better? What can be discovered in this short time that will uncover the bright future? It looks like we are not in control of our destiny and don’t have a clear vision of where we’re going.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Of course it looks that way, we are only part way into the process. We are still trying to deal with the EU and find out what is possible/available/achievable.

Take CETA, that sort of deal, IMO, would leave us much better off.

Free trade with the EU but none of the 4 pillars, allowing us to control immigration to our best advantage and deal with other nations freely as well.

Is that possible? I think so. Is it probable? I dont know. Will we get it? Who knows?! And that is the point. Its too early to have anything tangible to lean on.

 

[SpurMeUp]

What % of our economy is service based? Does CETA cover trade access for services?

Do you think it’s possible the EU will give the UK trading terms that are as free - or as good - as they are within the EU?

How many years did CETA take to negotiate? How much quicker can we agree a deal with our current EU regularity alignment?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[SpurMeUp]

After skim reading this https://capx.co/the-canada-eu-trade-deal-is-no-model-for-brexit/ is CETA even remotely suitable for the UK?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[Grays_1890]

I was always willing to take a financial hit for independence, if it costs me £50 a month more then so be it.

Unlike the swampies drinking craft beer and watching Dulwich Hamlet I don't rely on daddies money or my student loan

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

What % of our economy is service based? Does CETA cover trade access for services?

Do you think it’s possible the EU will give the UK trading terms that are as free - or as good - as they are within the EU?

How many years did CETA take to negotiate? How much quicker can we agree a deal with our current EU regularity alignment?

After skim reading this https://capx.co/the-canada-eu-trade-deal-is-no-model-for-brexit/ is CETA even remotely suitable for the UK?

My point wasnt to replicate CETA exactly - the important thing to take away from CETA is the EU's willingness to enter a free trade agreement that doesnt include free movement of people. That is key.

I havent read it all yet, but this:
https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2014/december/tradoc_152982.pdf

Really does make the agreement sound rather good from our point of view anyway if we were to try and adopt (adapt?) it.

....
The tariff reduction package is one of the most comprehensive the EU has ever achieved in the context of an FTA, notably with respect to the elimination of tariffs upon entry into force of the agreement. Overall, the tariffs for 98.6% of all Canadian tariff lines and 98.7% of all EU tariff lines will ultimately be fully eliminated. This will happen at entry into force of the agreement for 98.2% of the Canadian tariff lines and for 97.7% of the EU tariff lines. All other products identified for liberalisation will have their tariffs brought to zero within 3, 5 or 7 years. Overall, the result is balanced and reciprocal, and offers new opportunities while taking into account key sensitivities of both parties.
....

....
Conclusion
Canada is a sizeable market with high purchasing power and is the most developed economy with which the EU has negotiated an FTA thus far. The overall deal represents an excellent outcome of significant economic value to European companies, consumers and households. CETA is a balanced agreement that will restore the level playing field for European operators in Canada in comparison to its NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) partners, which have benefited from preferential treatment in Canada since 1994. CETA even goes beyond this, for example on services market access and in particular on government procurement, where the opening to European bidders is unprecedented. The outcomes on geographical indications, on patents or on market access for ships and certain maritime services have never been granted before by Canada to a trading partner. On investment protection and on the mutual recognition of professional qualifications, the EU and Canada have broken new ground in creating effective rules to facilitate economic activities, without affecting their ability to regulate these activities in the public interest. In the first case, they innovated by improving the current system, clarifying the rules and making it more transparent, in the second by providing a framework that can give new opportunities to professionals. While providing very comprehensive liberalisation of trade and investment and significant new opportunities for businesses and professionals, the EU and Canada also place a strong emphasis on the highest standards of sustainable development, on cultural diversity, and on the right to regulate in the public interests within their territories. Like in all trade agreements, the EU does not take any commitments with regard to public services.
....

The real take away for me though is that the EU have shown a willingness to go into a free trade agreement without the conditions of EU membership.

Given that we will not be an EU member, but are an important trade partner, why wouldnt they do the same with us?

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

Why would democracy by referendum scare you? is it because you did not get the result you wanted?

The Brexit vote has nothing to do with this view, this pretty much sums up why

Being opposed to Brexit is your right, but the country voted and that vote should be respected. It scares me what happens when politicans think they can do what they want and not what the country voted for, I think that is a slippery slope.

not going to argue too much on this as the point has been made many times and you either agree or not but a lot of people were voting for Norwegian type Brexit, there was no consensus pre vote that Brexit meant hard Brexit this has only become the dogma post vote.

The referendum on the EU was a massive event, something not to be taken lightly. It is bigger then little domestic issues on internal running of a country. It was about deciding that we wished to be free from the EU. The referendum was straight forward, do you want to stay in the EU or leave. The was a massive project fear campaign which is still on going but despite this people voted out, they may have voted out for different reasons but they voted out.

I have said many times on here I do not think Brexit will happen, the are so many in the establishment the are so many in the media and law professions who do not want it, they said they wanted to kick it into the long grass, they said after ramping up project fear that we should have a second vote. They will not allow it, personally I think that is a shame but I am also worried because history shows us what happens when you go against the will of the people in countries.

What is saddest for me is a lot seem to be against it because they think it is a tory or right wing issue, I have come across many who seem opposed to it because they think it is racist or some sort of tory plot. But we are more liberal then the rest of Europe, see the french and the disgusting ban they want on the muslim head scarf or the Spanish and their bull fighting, or how the Italians treat their immigrants. If we followed those countries if we ever leave, then the party who did that would be chucked out at the next election.

Brexit if it ever happened would not only be the best thing to happen to this country it could act as a leader to the rest of Europe at how to behave.

Thats a very nice way to look at things but I don't see how it relates to yesterdays vote which was essentially ensuring Parliament was sovereign rather than Government, I thought that was also a main part of the brexit vote, returning sovereignty to Parliament.[/QUOTE]

The bottom line for me is that people that voted remain have and will use every tactic to over turn the vote.

I concede they have won. But the cost to democracy is going to be long lasting. Posting videos or links yo other people saying the public are not well enough informed does not cut it with me. We had our state operated t.v. service as one of the leaders of project fear yet people still voted out.

The elite which are in so many positions of power in different organisations in this country have to much of a vested interest to do what the people asked.

Project fear has worn people down, one reason a lot do not bother talking politics now. Project fear has worked but the sad thing is it will create real fear in the future.

Does not matter whether it is europe or another issue, the people in this country know their elected leaders are prepared to undermine them, that is only going to cause problems in the future.

The MPs wanting to have a vote on any deal is only so they can reject it and we have to stay in. Suggesting otherwise insults all our intelligence. A lot of them have said from the start they were going to delay it or kick it into the long grass or tie it up in court cases. By denying it they are behaving just like their beloved EU.

 

[r-u-s-x]

Really think you are tilting at windmills here, you are so certain something will happen you see it everywhere. No matter what side you were on BREXIT vote was not to move sovereignty from the EU to the Government. Yesterdays vote was good for democracy in my opinion again regardless of what side of this issue you are on.

 

[r-u-s-x]

I was always willing to take a financial hit for independence, if it costs me £50 a month more then so be it.

Unlike the swampies drinking craft beer and watching Dulwich Hamlet I don't rely on daddies money or my student loan

what if it was mummies money - thats just reinforcing gender stereotypes.

 

[Grays_1890]

what if it was mummies money - thats just reinforcing gender stereotypes.

My mums dead so I was talking from where I would be relying on money should it be available

 

[DTA]

As it is, I think @scaramanga did a good job of spelling out possible positives - which seem to have gone largely ignored.

@scaramanga is a clever guy. But he is often myopic and cantankerous. His answer of market forces replacing regulation if implemented is a fast track to a dystopian futue

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

@scaramanga is a clever guy. But he is often myopic and cantankerous. His answer of market forces replacing regulation if implemented is a fast track to a dystopian futue

And if that was the only point he made Id take your view as a fair assessment.

As I said above though, much of the good points he has made are simply ignored.

 

[DTA]

And if that was the only point he made Id take your view as a fair assessment.

As I said above though, much of the good points he has made are simply ignored.

Which ones of his points do you like?

In fairness to @scaramanga though, he took the time to spell out what he sees as the positives which I do appreciate.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Scaras points in that one post (there have been many more, this is the most recent)

• I want imports that aren't barred by a protectionist state that refuses to allow outdated industry to fail.
  
• I want to be able to buy what I want from wherever I want without the EU taking their bite
  
• I want to be relieved of EU bureaucracy and legislation for products I sell in the UK and around the world that have nothing to do with the EU.
  
• I want us to be able to refuse in and out of work benefits to any and all immigrants at any time for reasons of our choosing.
  
• I want our financial systems extricated from the ticking time bomb that is a single currency containing countries like Greece.
  
• I want our government to be free to compete with EU nations for business through lower tax and regulations.
  
• I want us to be able to set immigration targets based on the skills and abilities required at that time in our society, not based on the nationality of that person.
  
• I want to have the warm fuzzy feeling that comes from knowing we're not part of an institution that condemns thousands of African farmers to a lifetime of poverty because we don't want them undercutting our prices.

I see absolutely nothing wrong with any of them. Not all effect me, or are directly of interest to me, but even so I can see positives.

I think the first and last are on similar lines. The whole scenario around African coffee growers is awful, and I see no reason why we shouldnt trade with them and invest in them to improve their industry and product which we can enjoy. It is ethically correct and likely economically favourable as well (for us and them).

As I understand it, EU tariffs on the import of processed coffee are so prohibitively high the farmers cannot afford to process the coffee and sell a finished product. However, EU tariffs on coffee beans are very low, which is extremely convenient for the huge coffee processing plants in Germany. People say the EU isnt protectionist, what does this tell you?

Second point Ive no particular view on, though principally I see nothing wrong with it.

Third, just makes sense. If the trade is nothing to do with the EU, why should the EU bureaucracy apply? Again, no strong feelings but certainly no issue either.

Immigration is something Ive spoken to at length, I think you know how I feel about it - and I get the impression Scara has similar views.

I wont lie, I dont follow the financial systems one well enough to have a view on it.

Competition for business is fine by me in principle. Of course, depending on what regulations are relaxed, my view on it might change.

Im not sure I see your response as being to much of his post - what do you think of each point?

 

[DTA]

I was always willing to take a financial hit for independence, if it costs me £50 a month more then so be it.

Unlike the swampies drinking craft beer and watching Dulwich Hamlet I don't rely on daddies money or my student loan

Everything is relative bruv. £50 less a month means that some people can't heat their house.

Would you be ok with it if you were £500 worse off a month? Would @scaramanga be ok with it if he was £5k worse off a month?

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Sure. Is it a good thing that if your EU flight is delayed, you have statutory rights to real compensation? Or that roaming phone charges in the EU can't be excessive as they used to be? Or that air pollution from factories can't be above certain limits? Or that laws allow the continent to trade with each other on fair and equal terms, which facilitates free trade? None of these things can be delivered by UK law in isolation.

Apart from the last one, why are the others devoid of being written into our laws?

Do you think you will realise all of things post Brexit? Its a 'cake an eat it' approach that is blinkered and fails to recognise the complex reality. For example, the EU will not let us undercut them with lower standards of regulation say on workers pay rights/costs, or taxation, and then hand us a free trade agreement. Why would they? Its a bonkers suggestion! And most of our exports are to the EU. All over the world, countries trade most with their neighbouring countries. A simple fact that seems to be ignored.

Of course they wouldn't, but the cost gain/loss to us is dependent on the trade agreement we negotiate, all unknown at the moment. It might not be free trade, but if it isn't, the flexibility on how we are able to operate might still make it worth it, we just don't know.

Would it make you feel warm and fuzzy to have no UK based farmers? Because if it wasn't for the CAP or a similar system countries would not have an indigenous agriculture industry. After WWII and the pain of rationing for decades, countries realised that a free market for all food was dangerous and left them vulnerable. We need to keep some, if not all, of our farmers. Or are you suggesting we put them out of business?

I actually think agriculture is an area we should be looking to increase, less dependence on food imports, less miles (traffic,fuel etc) shifting food around the country. If it needs the support of a subsidy, so be it. We have a green and fertile land, with a varied climate, best to use it.

All very well listing a Christmas list of things you want (which is still more than anyone else has and interesting) but you have to see these wishes in the context of global trade. The UK can work in isolation but w'll be significantly poorer for it. Everything we know about trade tell us that free trade especially with out neighbours leads to prosperity. The UKs economy from the 70s to now - in short whilst in the EU - has grown massively.

Our EU 'membership' looks very different to 1973.
The prosperity of the EU certainly looks good (not)for the Spanish,Greeks,Italians,Portuguese....so it's no given.

The UK prosperity is basically down to inflated asset prices since the 80's, that persist today ( a bottled up problem in itself) and to a lesser extent benefiting from cheap labour producing far east sh*t we never knew we needed. Being in the EU has little contribution to those issues.

Okay so the big one immigration. We're to leave but keep immigration as it is for now? How would that be digested by voters do you think?

It will be a points based system.
Politically because, free movement would just be as we are, and so upset the Leavers who voted for that reason. And from the EU side they are obv not going to give us controlled immigration and a free trade agreement.
So to move on from what was in place (one of the points of this saga), a points system, with a chance to implement vastly improved counting/monitoring system. None of this is to necessarily reduce immigration, it's just a control thing. Basically all of EU and ROW are in the same boat (no pun), and have equal chance to come to the UK.

Out of interest, if we were remaining, give me your negatives/problem list of things that you were not happy with as a member of the EU.?

 

[Grays_1890]

Everything is relative bruv. £50 less a month means that some people can't heat their house.

Would you be ok with it if you were £500 worse off a month? Would @scaramanga be ok with it if he was £5k worse off a month?

If I was earning enough to have that taken then maybe, but on my current income I would doubt that very much

At the end of the day what I am saying is I would be willing to pay more if it meant an better country